1. Drake Baldwin, C
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 190 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 24
Baldwin is such a good defender behind the plate that he’s almost certainly going to be someone’s everyday catcher, and if his raw power keeps showing up in games as it did after a midseason promotion to Triple A, he’s going to make some All-Star teams. He was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2022 out of Missouri State, where he wasn’t a full-time player until his draft year, and he’s improved substantially as a hitter since entering pro ball, loosening up at the plate to try to get to more of that plus power. He had a slow start in Double A but Atlanta promoted him to Gwinnett in early June, after which he took off, hitting .298/.407/.484 at the higher level with 12 homers in 72 games.
He hits the ball extremely hard — his average exit velocity in Triple A was 92 mph, his EV50 was 103, and his 90th percentile EV was 107 — so there’s every reason to think the power is real. He whistles the bat through the zone with excellent bat speed, and even with a pretty high starting position he hasn’t had trouble getting to pitches at the bottom of the strike zone so far. He’s an outstanding blocker and receiver with plus arm strength but just fringy accuracy so far, leading to a career 20 percent caught stealing rate in the minors. A 20-homer catcher with plus defense will rank among the best backstops in the majors, and Baldwin looks like he can be at least that, and probably will debut this year.
2. Cam Caminiti, LHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 18
Atlanta’s first-round pick last year, Caminiti is an ultra-athletic lefty who’s been up to 97 with a plus changeup that might be a 70 and a much-improved breaking ball that went from a non-factor this time last year to maybe an above-average pitch. His delivery is very good and repeatable, more online to the plate now than it was when he was younger, and he has a lot of projection left to gain some strength and become a durable starter toward the top of a rotation. There’s just a lot of variance with any 18-year-old pitcher, so he remains a high-risk prospect, even though he has a lot of factors in his
3. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Smith-Shawver debuted in the majors in 2023 at age 20, way before he was ready to get big-league hitters out, then spent nearly all of 2024 in Triple A outside of one big-league start and one rehab appearance in Low A. He’s mostly fastball/changeup and is still looking for an average breaking ball, with a curveball that has decent shape but doesn’t miss bats, and he’s added a slider that’s hard but doesn’t have much spin. He’s a good athlete and he’s the same age as the college guys drafted last year, so he has a lot of time to try to find a real out-pitch and improve his command. Right now, I’d bet it’s 60/40 bullpen, however, given the 45 control/command and the lack of a real swing-and-miss offering
JR Ritchie, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Ritchie returned from the Tommy John surgery he had in early 2023 to make 11 starts last year, finishing with three solid outings in High A, and should be positioned to breakout this year now that he seems to be fully healthy. He was 90-94 with a plus changeup and above-average-to-plus slider in his return, velocity that was a tick or two down from pre-surgery but just fine for his first year back. He’s athletic and repeats his delivery well, a positive sign for future command. He didn’t walk many guys at all in 2024, under 10 percent at both Low A and High A, but his command wasn’t close to average just yet. He still has No. 2 starter upside if the velocity comes back and his command improves with more time away from the surgery.
5. Hurston Waldrep, RHP
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Waldrep reached the majors 11 months after Atlanta took him in the first round in 2023, and his debut was a disaster, as he walked eight and allowed three homers in seven innings, posting a 16.71 ERA in two starts. He throws hard, averaging almost 96 mph in those major-league outings, but it is dead straight, and he can’t get to his out-pitch, the splitter, which is also frequently out of the zone. He’s got a fringy slider as a third pitch, but it’s not going to make up for the 40 command or the fact that the four-seamer is just too flat. The universal opinion outside of Atlanta seems to be that he should just go to the bullpen and maybe sit 98 with that plus splitter. Given who else they have in their rotation, it might be the best way to get value from Waldrep in 2025 anyway.
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Originally Posted by Carp
