GDT #12, 4/13/'14: Braves (Harang) vs Nats (Gio); No Gattis, CJ, or Uggla

[thethe]

I do not care if Freeman ever hits 35+ homers a year. I think he will do it but that is not whta he is about. This is going to be a guy who consistently has 45+ doubles and bats over 300 with a 400+ OBP. I know the defensive metricts are not high on him but I think he picks its and stretches as well as anyone I've seen wear a Braves uniform since crime dog.

[57Brave]

Freeman defends the bag as good if not better than anyone in the league. Around the bag his feet are quick and his hands are soft.

[zitothebrave]

Freddie probably has a 30+ homer season in him. People don't realize that 30+ homer seasons aren't as common as they used to be. There were only 14 hitters in baseball who had 30 homers. some guys were curtailed off that number by injuries (Joey Bats) but the metric slid, 25 is the new 30 for homer standards. And if you hit 35+ you're probably just outside the top 5 in baseball. It's not like the old days where you'd have nearly 10 guys with 40+ homers in baseball, that's now reserved for the best of the best, infact the only player to regularly hit 40+ homers is Miggy.

Baseball has changed.

That said I don't think it's a given Freddie consistently hits over .300. We'll have to see how this year plays out, but given his past numbers, he doesn't have the skillset of a .300+ hitter. His K rate around 20% isn't typical of a .300 hitter. If we look at the current 3 year sample of 11-13 there are 24 guys who've hit a qualified .300. on that list 9 have k'd more than 15% of the time, 3 have K's more than Freddie's best season.

When we break down the 9 over the 15% you have

Braun
Trout
Votto
Craig
A-Gon
Carpenter
Kemp
Cutch
Cargo

Immediately throw out Cargo (21.7 K%) as he barely makes the cut and he plays at Coors where way more balls land.

I would also toss out Braun, Kemp, and Trout who have power numbers Freddie doesn't match and aside from maybe a fluke season won't touch.

So basically if you compare semi-similar players (read ditch speed demons who make extra hits happen like Cutch)

You're left with

Votto
A-Gon
Craig
Carpenter

Votto is another likely toss, because Votto is really the ideal form of Freeman's production and I don't think he ever sniffs Votto. Votto has such an amazing eye, still has very good just not insane power, and has averaged over the last 3 full seasons 28% LD.

Freeman's hope for being a .300+ hitter lies in the last 3, Craig and Carpenter are both somewhat small sample sizes. Craig is a weird candidate too as none of his numbers remained constant. When he burst in in 2011 to 2013 his LD% went way up but power went way down. Carpenter just barely fit into 15+ at 15.3 K% as a hitter he's probably more similar to freeman than anyone else on the list. Good patience, high line drives, not a ton of power. Freeman will K more than Carpenter most likely but will hit way more homers. A-Gon is on the list because of his 2011, I think he's more typically a .280-.300 hitter but because in 2011 he had a .380 BABIP it skewed his offensive numbers.

Freeman has been amazing to start the year, and I hope especially he keeps his K totals down, because that's the biggest thing seperating hm from being one of the best hitters in the NL. If he drops his K% below 15% he will regularly hit over .300.

[thethe]

I'm sorry but I am not going to use Freddie past which consist of two seasons at 21/22 years of age where he was still learning how to hit. He is a copmletely different hitter and player. His baseline at this point is irrelevant to me.

[zitothebrave]

Freeman defends the bag as good if not better than anyone in the league. Around the bag his feet are quick and his hands are soft.

Freeman is great around the bad, but I wouldn't throw that hyperbole around. He reminds me defensively of Mark Teixeira. Tex was basically the same boat. Not much range in the field but excellent around the bag.

Part of the problem I see with the Braves fans going bonkers over Freddie is we've had some awesome defensive 1B in the same capacity as him. Tex and Laroche were both similar to him in the no range but great around the bag, and then you had Kotchman, who was just strong defensively period.

[zitothebrave]

I'm sorry but I am not going to use Freddie past which consist of two seasons at 21/22 years of age where he was still learning how to hit. He is a copmletely different hitter and player. His baseline at this point is irrelevant to me.

It shouldn't be irrelevant. Because baseball hitters are more prepared for the majors than ever before.

[nsacpi]

Freddie's K rate has been falling. 22.4% in 2011, 20.8 in 2012, 19.2 in 2013. This trend is even apparent if you look at his second half 2013 versus first half. So far this year he is at 7.7%. Now that is ridiculously low. But going forward I think it will remain below 20%, probably somewhere around 15%.

[zitothebrave]

I think he'll remain below 20% as well. I see him as a 17% range guy long term.

[thethe]

I see a solid 0% K rate in his future!

[nsacpi]

I think he'll remain below 20% as well. I see him as a 17% range guy long term.

He was at 18% in the second half of last season. He is a player who is still improving. Obviously the start he has gotten off to this year exaggerates how much. But I think 17% long term is a very conservative estimate. I think it is more likely to be 15% or lower in his peak seasons (ages 25-29). I think in a typical season during those years he will have a strikeout and walk rate both around 14%, hit around .300 and hit 30 HRs. Obviously there will be some fluctuation in those years. My guess is his career bests (not necessarily all occurring in the same season) might be along the lines of a walk rate around 17%, strikeout rate around 12%, 45 HRs and a batting average of .350.

[gilesfan]

.300 batting average is a pretty tall order, but the guy consistently puts up good at bats and almost always puts the barrel on the ball. Power won't be out of this world or anything.

.280-.310 with upper .300's OBP, and a .200 iso slugging is probably fair.

[Braves1976]

I see a solid 0% K rate in his future!

That's Simmons present so far this year. :)

[50PoundHead]

.300 batting average is a pretty tall order, but the guy consistently puts up good at bats and almost always puts the barrel on the ball. Power won't be out of this world or anything.

.280-.310 with upper .300's OBP, and a .200 iso slugging is probably fair.

I could see him hitting 30+ HRs in a season, but it would probably be the outlier for him. I think he could be a .300 career hitter. Mark Grace was, but Grace was a classic spray hitter. Because Freeman can drive the ball with regularity, he will likely sacrifice some average for power. He appears to be getting a bit more selective (small sample size) and his contact rate is great (small sample size). All good things. All I can say is his fundamentals are solid.

[zbhargrove]

I'm not doubting Freeman's ability when it comes to anything anymore. He has been flying past expectations every step of the way. People always said his ceiling was to be a solid player but probably not an All-Star... now its something like he'll probably be an All-Star but not an MVP, etc... I'll believe Freddie has hit his ceiling when I see it.

[jpx7]

More like Bris Harper.

Sharp.

[jpx7]

Thats a Freddi type move there.

When you're a new, first-time manager, you look to the best to set precedent, and then you drink all that wisdom up.

[Julio3000]

More like Bris Harper.

Just a little off the top, please.

[Julio3000]

Sharp.

Just the tip.

[jpx7]

You will positively **** when Bert Cooper shoots up the office at the end of season 5.

I think my favorite part is when Sterling quits the firm in s06e02 to sign up for culinary school.

[jpx7]

Would you do that or would you create a phantom injury and put him on the 15 day DL? I'd rather the DL option. I think his days in the pen are numbered.

As good as he's looked last year and this as a starter, I think his days in the pen should be virtually through.