DOTW 4/15/'14: Medlen & Beachy Problems

[The Chosen One]

With the rainout and game postponed tonight...

Assuming both come back next May or June, Medlen is scheduled to become a free agent after 2016. Do we non-tender him or like Venters, offer him something and see what happens?

Beachy is scheduled to become a FA in 2017. Same question for him as well.

Both are having their second tommy john surgeries. Always harder to come back from the second, than the first.

Is Medlen ever going to be back in the rotation, as is Beachy? Both are in the video room watching their mechanics to see what can be changed. In Medlen's case he's kind of handicapped from the fact he's short.

[nsacpi]

Beachy is more of a question mark because he never really came back from his first surgery. Medlen did for two pretty good seasons.

You also have to look at their salaries. The arb process doesn't really allow for pay cuts. If you want to do that it has to be agreed to before the deadline for offering arbitration.

Medlen is making $5.8M this year. The club has to ask if his expected production in 2015 is worth that or would they be better off using the money elsewhere. I think the answer can perhaps be seen in what they are paying Floyd. It is not an exact comp in part because Floyd is coming back from his first TJ. But that is partly offset by the fact Floyd had the surgery in May of last year. So their ETA's might be roughly the same. The Braves are guaranteeing Floyd $4 mil with bonuses that could more than double that. So $5.8M for Medlen seems about right.

As for Beachy he is making 1.45M. Interestingly enough we have Venters as a comp for his case. If the Braves are bringing back Venters at $1.625M I would think they would bring back Beachy on a similar amount. It wouldn't make sense to count on Beachy as a starter. But he could be effective in the pen, which is where he began his minor league career.

I think an interesting related question is what the rotation might look like going into 2015. Assuming continued health (knock on Wood), the trio of Minor, Teheran and Wood would form the core of that. We would need two more. The internal options for the other two spots could include Medlen, Thomas, Hale, Graham, Hursh. My guess is they might sign or trade for someone with a track record of durability and effectiveness. Say a Kyle Lohse to toss out a name. That way they would only need to fill one spot from the internal candidates. A lot depends on how guys like Graham and Hursh and possibly Sims, Parsons and Cabrera develop.

I'd love to see Uggla have a decent season and then be included in a trade for a starting pitcher. Say Uggla plus a top 10 but not top 5 prospect for Lohse. The salary would be close to a wash. As has been discussed in other threads there is a bit of a budget crunch for 2015, so we will probably have to move salary to take on salary.

[goldfly]

i don't think either of them are a brave next year

[Teheran_49]

Yeah as much as I love Kris Medlen and like Beachy two TJ surgeries is just a mountain to over come. I think if one of the two could do it it's Kris but will he ever be the same pitcher? Add in the fact that we may need to save some money to see where we stand with some other guys on the team.

[Knucksie]

Without checking to verifiy, didn't Beachy basically have 1/2 a great season in his career? The rest was showing flashes, extended periods on the DL and rehabbing. So, there's really no point of reference as to the type of pitcher he would become. Since they weren't paying him that much, there wasn't as much risk attached. Depending on the set of circumstances, it's feasible that they could offer him minimum possible salary for years of service + incentives. Agreed that Medlen is the more likely candidate to return to some previous form, but finances will dictate the disposition for both of them.

[cajunrevenge]

I think Beachy is a good bet to return because 1.5 mill is chump change. Medlen I think they may non tender him and offer him a 1 year deal with incentives. Based on how the pen goes this year they might look like good depth going into next year. Venters might influence the decision because he is a reliever coming back from second tj surgery.

[zitothebrave]

I would agree with Cajun, I think Beachy is most likely to return adn probably at 1.5m again similar to Venters. Meds, I'm not sure about. We have 8 guys under contract next year for 73M. We have for arb guys the earlier mentioned Beachy and Medlen, we also have Walden, Johnson, Venters, Schafer, Carpenter,a nd Pena. Of that group Schafer is the most at risk, depending on what Jonny does. Walden and Johnson are maybe trade candidates but I doubt it lol.

Ideally we'll be able to move Uggla for some space and we can use that space to keep Medlen around. We don't need Medlen or Beachy JMO. We have Minor, Julio, and Wood already in the majors who'll be the "vets" and then we also have guys likely ready like Sims, Northcraft, Graham, Cabrera, Martin, and someone else I'm sure I'm forgetting.

[rico43]

I would agree with Cajun, I think Beachy is most likely to return adn probably at 1.5m again similar to Venters. Meds, I'm not sure about. We have 8 guys under contract next year for 73M. We have for arb guys the earlier mentioned Beachy and Medlen, we also have Walden, Johnson, Venters, Schafer, Carpenter,a nd Pena. Of that group Schafer is the most at risk, depending on what Jonny does. Walden and Johnson are maybe trade candidates but I doubt it lol.

Ideally we'll be able to move Uggla for some space and we can use that space to keep Medlen around. We don't need Medlen or Beachy JMO. We have Minor, Julio, and Wood already in the majors who'll be the "vets" and then we also have guys likely ready like Sims, Northcraft, Graham, Cabrera, Martin, and someone else I'm sure I'm forgetting.

Hursh. You're on the money, I'd say.

[stpeteirish]

Neither of these guys are going to get anywhere's near they would have if they hadn't gotten hurt again. Both are probably done as starters, IMO. You can't offer arb to Medlen as there are caps on how much you can cut his salary and he's not worth anywhere close to 5 million rehabbing from a 2nd TJS. Beachy you might go the ARB route but you should probably offer even less as his prognosis is pretty bleak. I'd say 1 mil max.

Doubt if either stays. Might be interesting to see how Venters does this year. Doubt if either will be a big loss if they do leave. Too bad, but at least Medlen got paid for his trouble. Someone might take a flyer on him for 2015. But we shouldn't pay him 5 million unless he's a starter.

[stpeteirish]

Beachy is more of a question mark because he never really came back from his first surgery. Medlen did for two pretty good seasons.

You also have to look at their salaries. The arb process doesn't really allow for pay cuts. If you want to do that it has to be agreed to before the deadline for offering arbitration.

Medlen is making $5.8M this year. The club has to ask if his expected production in 2015 is worth that or would they be better off using the money elsewhere. I think the answer can perhaps be seen in what they are paying Floyd. It is not an exact comp in part because Floyd is coming back from his first TJ. But that is partly offset by the fact Floyd had the surgery in May of last year. So their ETA's might be roughly the same. The Braves are guaranteeing Floyd $4 mil with bonuses that could more than double that. So $5.8M for Medlen seems about right.

As for Beachy he is making 1.45M. Interestingly enough we have Venters as a comp for his case. If the Braves are bringing back Venters at $1.625M I would think they would bring back Beachy on a similar amount. It wouldn't make sense to count on Beachy as a starter. But he could be effective in the pen, which is where he began his minor league career.

I think an interesting related question is what the rotation might look like going into 2015. Assuming continued health (knock on Wood), the trio of Minor, Teheran and Wood would form the core of that. We would need two more. The internal options for the other two spots could include Medlen, Thomas, Hale, Graham, Hursh. My guess is they might sign or trade for someone with a track record of durability and effectiveness. Say a Kyle Lohse to toss out a name. That way they would only need to fill one spot from the internal candidates. A lot depends on how guys like Graham and Hursh and possibly Sims, Parsons and Cabrera develop.

I'd love to see Uggla have a decent season and then be included in a trade for a starting pitcher. Say Uggla plus a top 10 but not top 5 prospect for Lohse. The salary would be close to a wash. As has been discussed in other threads there is a bit of a budget crunch for 2015, so we will probably have to move salary to take on salary.

Are you suggesting that we offer Medlen 5.8 mil? Think that's way too high for him in 2015, maybe 2016 if he's functional in the 2nd half of 2015. Has anyone with 2 TJS's been a rotation guy after the 2nd TJS? Capuano, but he's a ridiculously soft tosser who nobody wants now. Only way Medlen gets that kind ofd money is if he's a starter.

[nsacpi]

Are you suggesting that we offer Medlen 5.8 mil? Think that's way too high for him in 2015, maybe 2016 if he's functional in the 2nd half of 2015. Has anyone with 2 TJS's been a rotation guy after the 2nd TJS? Capuano, but he's a ridiculously soft tosser who nobody wants now. Only way Medlen gets that kind ofd money is if he's a starter.

The number of precedents is small. But it is about to increase with guys like Parker also going under the knife for the second time. My guess is that if Medlen were non-tendered he would get a contract along the lines of 4M guaranteed with bonuses taking it well above that.

[PawPawMaxwell]

doesnt the CBA stipulate that he can be offered no less than 80% of previous contract? Im not much on legalities.

[Nerfherders]

How many pitchers have gone back to starting after two tommy johns? The only pitchers I can think of who have had two are relievers. My thinking here is that they both will possibly become relievers. Medlen has already shown he can be good in the role. And imagine Beachy's stuff one inning at a time...

[Enscheff]

I think it's more likely that Santana is signed (semi) long term than either Medlen or Beachy make a significant impact in any future Braves rotation.

[thethe]

I think it's more likely that Santana is signed (semi) long term than either Medlen or Beachy make a significant impact in any future Braves rotation.

I agree with this. Hopefully he likes it here and takes slightly below market value.

[gtcway]

I agree with this. Hopefully he likes it here and takes slightly below market value.

Like others have said, I wish there was at least a mutual option for next year. Have a feeling he will do really well this year.

[nsacpi]

I don't see a scenario where Santana returns. If he has a strong season, he won't fit under our budget. If he has a poor season, we'll move on to other options.

[Knucksie]

I don't see a scenario where Santana returns. If he has a strong season, he won't fit under our budget. If he has a poor season, we'll move on to other options.

A bunch of people posted these hypothetical pitching staffs until 2017
of:

Medlen
Minor
Teheran
Beachy
Wood

As if nobody was going to get hurt, traded, non-tendered, signed as FA. Nobody listened to me about the % of roster turnover. Lo and behold, only 2 of that group even started the season.

Considering nobody would've even predicted that Ervin Santana would become a Brave. Then, some others were complaining about it being only one year and sacrificing the draft pick, during a desperate time, no less.

Depending on circumstances, there's reason to believe that it's possible that there could be mutual interest in extending (if he continues to be effective). Let's not pretend that somebody on this board has a better grasp on team budgets than the FO. Nobody saw the multiyear deals coming either (again, after a full winter of complaints on this board). Nobody here knows how much they intend to spend and whom they'd target.

[thethe]

You take Uggla off the payroll and I think you could fit Santana. Like Knucksie said..we have no clue what the budget is. Is it 100M? 120M? 150M? We really have no clue and if the new stadium fills up then all bets are off. There is just way too much money floating around baseball right now to have any clue what is going to happen.

[Heyward]

I don't see a scenario where Santana returns. If he has a strong season, he won't fit under our budget. If he has a poor season, we'll move on to other options.

If Beachy/Meds are non-tendered, that frees up 6-7 mil or so.

I'm not sure what Santana may want though.

I would do 3/42 with an option for the 4th year.