Santana

[VirginiaBrave]

With the comment tonight about how much Erwin is enjoying playing in ATL, anybody think it's possible we extend him if he wins 15-20 games? He and Julio would make a great 1-2 in the future.

[Carp]

Doubtful, as I expect Santana to test FA if he has another great yr. And Atlanta hasn't really shown an interest in resigning their own starting pitchers. Though I wouldn't be opposed to to an extension if were 4 yrs or less and no more than 60 mllion.

[Heyward]

Hard to say, they'd have the money for him if it's somewhere around 3 years, 42-45 million or 4 years, 55-60 mil.

If he looks/wants more, probably not.

[nsacpi]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

[yeezus]

I easily give him 3/45, and he may sign it.

[Teheran_49]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

No way in hell a pitcher like Ervin will accept 8mm, he's worth 15mm in today's market. He's in the prime stage of his career but I'd be willing to give him 4/60 no way I give him 5 years though. Odds are that Ervin has a career year, he has a lot working his way to set up for a very nice year and pay day.

[yeezus]

He could have a Javy Vazquez type year here.

[50PoundHead]

Looks good so far. I like that he doesn't mess around. I agree with Teheran_49. The market has gone totally nuts for starting pitching. Nolasco got 4/$49 million and that is probably Santana's starting point if he has a solid year.

[thethe]

I'd sign Santana for four more years. I wouldn't do more than 13-15 per year. Just have to hope that the farm produces some hitters because one of Jason/Justin are gone.

[GovClintonTyree]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

I understand why you're saying that, but offering a guy half his market value is insulting. So let's just wish Erv well with his new ring, stay the course and just keep bringing up 23 year old $500k pitchers who get guys out.

[thethe]

I understand why you're saying that, but offering a guy half his market value is insulting. So let's just wish Erv well with his new ring, stay the course and just keep bringing up 23 year old $500k pitchers who get guys out.

I think its good to have one reliable innings eater. Santana looks like a sure thing for 200+ for the next few years.

[cajunrevenge]

Remember that time when we were worried if we could re-sign Sheets?

[thethe]

Remember that time when we were worried if we could re-sign Sheets?

You think this is resembles that situation?

[nsacpi]

It could be that we can sign all three of Santana, Heyward and Justin Upton to multi-year deals. If that is the case I have no problem bringing Santana back. But if we have to choose and prioritize I'd put Heyward and Justin ahead of Santana.

[nsacpi]

The five pitchers who have the highest similarity scores to Santana through age 30 are: Brett Meyers, Pat Hentgen, Jaime Navarro, Alex Fernandez and Scott Erickson. I think a good starting point for any analysis of what Santana might be worth would be to look at how those pitchers did from age 32 onward.

[The Chosen One]

Santana has been great this year but I've never thought of him as an ace before this. Don't know if one year is going to work.

[Knucksie]

The draft pick is a sore subject for a lot of clubs. That's why some very respectable FA's have had to wait until almost the last minute to sign. Santana might just find himself in the same situation, next March. He and his agent most certainly would have to consider signing an extenstion as an option.

[nsacpi]

The draft pick is a sore subject for a lot of clubs. That's why some very respectable FA's have had to wait until almost the last minute to sign. Santana might just find himself in the same situation, next March. He and his agent most certainly would have to consider signing an extenstion as an option.

With respect to loss of draft pick, we are essentially in the same boat as other clubs. Signing him to an extension rather than making the qualifying offer also costs us a draft pick.

[sturg33]

I don't see any reason to sign him long term. Offer him the QO, if he accepts it then great. If not, great too, as we get our pick back. Win/Win.

Signing him long term means:

1. We don't get a draft pick
2. We don't keep Upton and Heyward long term (maybe lose both)
3. Risk having another $15M black hole on our team because it won't surprise me if he declines fast an/or gets injured.

[stpeteirish]

Remember that time when we were worried if we could re-sign Sheets?

No