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Thread: Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsebe10 View Post
    Plain and simple, if you do not drive in or score runs you won't in in the league or a team long, no matter how good you are defensively. Ask Jeff Franceour.
    Thats not true.

    Always a place for good defense if the rest of your lineup can hold it down.

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    I really don't understand why you guys need to be so polarized on this issue.
    Has Heyward lived up to expectations? No. Not sure that's debatable.
    Have injuries, freak or not, derailed that path? In all likelihood.
    Has he shown glimpses, in more than just one season, of being a catalyst offensively? Yes. Again, not really debatable. He's shown what he can do.
    Is he very frustrating to watch at the plate during his prolonged slumps? Yup.
    He's still just 24 and has had numerous things knock him out of grooves in his young career. I'm fine with letting him figure it out, I believe he's a much, MUCH better hitter than he's shown this year thus far, and his defense in right is otherworldly. Part of the reason our SP staff has been so crazy good is the defense provided by the two best defensive players at their positions - Simmons and Heyward. Heyward is a guy, IMO, you let figure it out as he has in the past.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    To a certain degree, yes.
    Please enlighten.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    Wins for a pitcher certainly don't tell the entire story.

    Wood has pitched phenomenal in all of his losses this year. 8 innings in every loss I think? Washington, Philly, Florida?

    Then Russ Ortiz winning 21 games in 2003 despite having like 6 runs per game of run support. I don't think anybody here thought Ortiz deserved the Cy Young with 21 wins and a 3.81 ERA that year.

    It's a misleading number. Cliff Lee lost two games to us throwing a complete game and striking out +10.

    It's especially misleading because of how all managers micromanage the bullpen now... Guys like Maddux-Johnson-Glavine etc earned 300 win because of consistency and longevity.
    And you are spot on with this.

    But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsebe10 View Post
    Run prevention due to pitching, yes. We've seen Heyward and Simmons save plenty of runs in games that we lost because the other team scored more runs.
    baseball is a game where the best hitters succeed 30% of the time (or 40% if you want OBP).

    Baseball will and will always be a pitcher's game. So defense and pitching are always the foundation of any ballclub. That was the foundation of our team for the last 2 and a half decades.. and it's worked out well for us.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    Actually that's not entirely true, Langerhans had a season with a 52 wRC+ over 244 PA, Jason is sitting at 67 in 107.

    Langerhans didn't have much of a defensive sample outside of LF. And he was very good in LF (17.5 UZR/150) but Jason is sitting at a 18.4 UZR/150 for RF which obviously has better defenders.
    I was mostly talking about Langy's playing time with the Braves. But I'm not going to argue the merits of Heyward being better than Langy. I never once said Langy is a better player than Heyward. Obviously Heyward isn't this bad. I was just making the point that a good defender isn't really all that valuable if he can't even hit his weight.

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    I would have no problem offering Jason a 5-6 year deal at $15-18MM annually. That's how much faith I have in his talent, work ethic, and character.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsebe10 View Post
    Run prevention due to pitching, yes. We've seen Heyward and Simmons save plenty of runs in games that we lost because the other team scored more runs.
    Plenty we have also won because they scored less but go on

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    I would have no problem offering Jason a 5-6 year deal at $15-18MM annually. That's how much faith I have in his talent, work ethic, and character.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsebe10 View Post
    And you are spot on with this.

    But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.
    It's also very team dependent. As in, if guys do not get on base in front of your HR, it counts for 1 RBI. I think hitting with RISP is an art to a degree, but at the same time it is proven, statistically, to be luck-driven and happenstance. High averages with RISP tend to even out. I think there are a plethora of stats to use over RBI. I wouldn't really use RBI in determining value of anyone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsebe10 View Post
    And you are spot on with this.

    But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.
    Why didnt Phillips win the MVP if RBI's are the end-all, be-all?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsebe10 View Post
    And you are spot on with this.

    But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.
    Braves hardly had loaded offenses... Maddux and Glavine and even RJ threw a lot of complete games and complete game shutouts in the 90's. They're 3 of the best that ever pitched in the game, so it's hard to compare them to pitchers today.

    Pedro didn't get to 300 because by the time he started aging, the over emphasis on bullpens came in play. Maddux and Glavine in their older years were above passable pitchers, Maddux was still balling in his last few years.

    Just because they give MVP awards based on RBI's doesn't necessarily mean they're the most important. Baseball has evolved, and Heyward now hitting leadoff isn't going to get many RBI opportunities. That's just the reality so to say his RBI totals suck is just not fair.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Modok View Post
    And I think that would be at a discount to the Braves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Modok View Post
    Please enlighten.
    Hard to explain, honestly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    Braves hardly had loaded offenses... Maddux and Glavine and even RJ threw a lot of complete games and complete game shutouts in the 90's. They're 3 of the best that ever pitched in the game, so it's hard to compare them to pitchers today.

    Pedro didn't get to 300 because by the time he started aging, the over emphasis on bullpens came in play. Maddux and Glavine in their older years were above passable pitchers, Maddux was still balling in his last few years.

    Just because they give MVP awards based on RBI's doesn't necessarily mean they're the most important. Baseball has evolved, and Heyward now hitting leadoff isn't going to get many RBI opportunities. That's just the reality so to say his RBI totals suck is just not fair.
    Its fair because he has been absolutely terrible at the plate this year. I tend to believe he has struggled more than most. But I digress.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    I would have no problem offering Jason a 5-6 year deal at $15-18MM annually. That's how much faith I have in his talent, work ethic, and character.
    I'd do that in a nano-second, but i think it would cost more.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeithLockhart View Post
    baseball is a game where the best hitters succeed 30% of the time (or 40% if you want OBP).

    Baseball will and will always be a pitcher's game. So defense and pitching are always the foundation of any ballclub. That was the foundation of our team for the last 2 and a half decades.. and it's worked out well for us.
    Understood and agree. Hitting and driving in runs is also a foundation of a team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Modok View Post
    Its fair because he has been absolutely terrible at the plate this year. I tend to believe he has struggled more than most. But I digress.
    I dont think anyone has disagreed he has been bad at the plate.

    But most logical fans will give him time and believe his track record will end up proving it's a slow start and he'll eventually catch fire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    And I think that would be at a discount to the Braves.
    Thank goodness Wren and Co feel much differently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Hard to explain, honestly.
    Not all that hard.
    To put it simply, sure some guys may do it better than others. But, the stats show, even with the teams or players who do it well for a season or two, it tends to even out. Like most things in baseball. There's something to be said for shortening a swing and putting the ball in play with RISP, but it's still BABIP-dependent.

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