Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up?

[yeezus]

A couple of his guys got hurt waaayyyy to often in Beltran and Santana.

Which is kinda funny, because Beltran was like, always healthy for the Cards.
He was actually pretty healthy for 4 out of 6 years in NY.

[The Chosen One]

Said this before a few days ago and will say it again. Nationals are like the whiny kids trying to show the adults they're ready to play with the big boys.

The Mets will always be our #1 Rival. Not Philly, not Washington, not Florida.

The first game at Shea after 9/11, as a Braves fan I could not have asked for a better finish. Sucked losing, but I was not mad about losing that night at all.

I remember the 2001 offseason the Mets STACKED their team with a bunch of veterans to challenge us. Alomar, Burnitz, Mo Vaughn, etc. Up to that point the only move we made was signing Vinny to play 3rd after his decent season in Tampa.

That offseason looked doomed until JS pulled off the Sheffield trade and suddenly we had a race. I remember the first series in 2002 where the Mets lit up Smoltz for 8 runs in one inning I think it was. Sucks that the Mets sucked that year, because I've always liked the games we played at Shea Stadium.

I actually in some sick way am rooting for the Mets to challenge us for the division. I want them to be somewhat useful and recreate the thorn in our sides like they were in the late 90's-'01.

[GovClintonTyree]

That was some of that Omar Minaya madness.

I wish Omar Minaya had signed me. I'm about tired of this work crap.

[Carp]

I'd rather sign both of them. Both are great players. BUt if I had to choose gun to my head I take Jason because his ceiling is way higher.

And what is the likelihood of reaching that ceiling? Wasn't you that said players are reaching their peak much earlier these days?

I do agree that the ideal situation would be to keep them both. But I'd say it's doubtful both will stay. Upton is way more likely to live up to a 100 million dollar contract than Jason, imo.

[Carp]

For the best defensive RF'er in the game, at only 24 years old, yes.

Granderson got 4/50 or 4/60.

With the increased revenue, he'd easily get 15 mil a year even though you may disagree.

No question he gets that.

Jason isn't close to the best RFer in the game as long as Braun mans LF, unless his Jason's offense improves dramatically. I personally would put Stanton and Bautista over Heyward though in a normal yr I'd the difference is negligible. Puig and Blackmon are knocking on the door as well.

[Heyward]

Jason isn't close to the best RFer in the game as long as Braun mans LF, unless his Jason's offense improves dramatically.

Defensively, i didnt say overall he was.

[jpx7]

It's put up or shut up time.

Says who?

[The Chosen One]

It's put up or shut up time.

I may be getting senile since I turned 24 yesterday, but when has Jason every ran his mouth about anything? He seems like an quiet dude most of the time. Even guys that went to school with him that I've met all said he was pretty laid back, not a loudmouth, just chill.

I've never seen Jason talk garbage or give the media some dinner like Harper has. He's always generally a very positive guy when the mic is in his face.

[CyYoung31]

Said this before a few days ago and will say it again. Nationals are like the whiny kids trying to show the adults they're ready to play with the big boys.

The Mets will always be our #1 Rival. Not Philly, not Washington, not Florida.

The first game at Shea after 9/11, as a Braves fan I could not have asked for a better finish. Sucked losing, but I was not mad about losing that night at all.

I remember the 2001 offseason the Mets STACKED their team with a bunch of veterans to challenge us. Alomar, Burnitz, Mo Vaughn, etc. Up to that point the only move we made was signing Vinny to play 3rd after his decent season in Tampa.

That offseason looked doomed until JS pulled off the Sheffield trade and suddenly we had a race. I remember the first series in 2002 where the Mets lit up Smoltz for 8 runs in one inning I think it was. Sucks that the Mets sucked that year, because I've always liked the games we played at Shea Stadium.

I actually in some sick way am rooting for the Mets to challenge us for the division. I want them to be somewhat useful and recreate the thorn in our sides like they were in the late 90's-'01.

The Mets were never a thorn in our side. We are, and have been aside from 2006, their daddy, even worse than we have been to the Nats lately.

[zitothebrave]

And what is the likelihood of reaching that ceiling? Wasn't you that said players are reaching their peak much earlier these days?

I do agree that the ideal situation would be to keep them both. But I'd say it's doubtful both will stay. Upton is way more likely to live up to a 100 million dollar contract than Jason, imo.

Jason's already shown a better ceiling though. Justin for Sure has shown more with the bat so far, but he's at best average with the glove. And you have to think about what happens if we keep one over the other. Keeping Justin likely means he moves to RF an dwe have Terds in LF meaning our OF defense goes from one of the best with Jason patrolling RF to maybe one of the worst in a hurry. Jason doesn't quite have the offensive ability of Justin (or at least hasn't shown it) But their career averages on offense are basically equal. Jason at 117 wRC+ and Justin at 121.

Again we should do everything in our power to keep Justin, but for me the best argument to keep Justin is that he's right handed. He's not shown to be a better player than Heyward.

[gtcway]

I think in a few years we will be glad the Braves chose to invest in Freeman over Heyward much like they did with McCann and Franceour.
I hope he gets better but don't believe he will turn into the hitter that deserves the contract it will take to keep him with the Braves.

I admit, I don't always read the whole game threads but it seems like everyone knows his approach at the plate, from his spot in the box to his always trying to pull everything, is really bad but he seems to get a pass.

I see a player who might one day live up to his potential but I don't think it will be with the Braves.

[thethe]

The goal should be to keep both but again you can't just pay Jason what his WAR numbers suggest if he doesn't hit. His offense is really hurting the club right now moreso than his defense is helping. I have faith in him and would offer him 15-18M per year right now but I don't think I could justify going more than that.

[zitothebrave]

Jason isn't close to the best RFer in the game as long as Braun mans LF, unless his Jason's offense improves dramatically. I personally would put Stanton and Bautista over Heyward though in a normal yr I'd the difference is negligible. Puig and Blackmon are knocking on the door as well.

Since 2010 Jason has the 3rd highest fWAR for a RG in baseball. 2nd best full time RF in baseball. Some guys like Justin, Choo, and Stanton out hit him, but he massively out classes them defensively. Heyward isn't Gerardo Parra where all his value is generated defensively. I'ts some weird myth that Jason hasn't hit. No he's not hitting like an MVP. But most guys aren't MVPs. I don't recall anyone complaining about Freddie's offense before last year. Which was equal to Jason's. Of course Freddie had an offensive explosion last year and people now really latch onto him, but no one complained about Freddie's offense and he was obviously not as good defensively as Jason.

Also **** Puig. Most overrated player in baseball. Mother****er has 10% LD rate and a .300 BABIP. That's stupid good luck.

[zitothebrave]

The goal should be to keep both but again you can't just pay Jason what his WAR numbers suggest if he doesn't hit. His offense is really hurting the club right now moreso than his defense is helping. I have faith in him and would offer him 15-18M per year right now but I don't think I could justify going more than that.

No you don't pay him on his WAR because defense peaks early. But you're way overreacting to a small sample offensively. Only concerning number with Jason is that his K rate is up from last year and his power is low now. But Jason usually tacks on his homers in bunches. So even though it's been a cold streak he may snap off 3 in a week before having another cold streak. Jason has an impossibly low .239 BABIP Someone who hits around 20% line drives like Jason and has his speed shouldn't have a BABIP below .300 normally. If his HR/FB was closer to his career average, and his BABIP was .300 his slash would be (rounding down even though I should round his hits up) .245/.336/.394. Not amazing, but considering that's not involving any kind of normalization of his doubles total or the likely lower K numbers that will come in a larger sample.

Heyward has sucked offensively so far this year, but nothing about his approach or results on batted balls aside from HR/FB screams anything out of the ordinary. He's right around his career averages his discipline stats as well. He's up on some down on some, but nothing crazy. It's not like he's all of the sudden chasing an abnormally large amount of balls out of the zone.

[thewupk]

Since 2010 Jason has the 3rd highest fWAR for a RG in baseball. 2nd best full time RF in baseball. Some guys like Justin, Choo, and Stanton out hit him, but he massively out classes them defensively. Heyward isn't Gerardo Parra where all his value is generated defensively. I'ts some weird myth that Jason hasn't hit. No he's not hitting like an MVP. But most guys aren't MVPs. I don't recall anyone complaining about Freddie's offense before last year. Which was equal to Jason's. Of course Freddie had an offensive explosion last year and people now really latch onto him, but no one complained about Freddie's offense and he was obviously not as good defensively as Jason.

Also **** Puig. Most overrated player in baseball. Mother****er has 10% LD rate and a .300 BABIP. That's stupid good luck.

Don't try and post facts into this thread. The same people that think Heyward sucks are the same people that thought Francoeur was awesome with his 100 RBI seasons.

[thethe]

No you don't pay him on his WAR because defense peaks early. But you're way overreacting to a small sample offensively. Only concerning number with Jason is that his K rate is up from last year and his power is low now. But Jason usually tacks on his homers in bunches. So even though it's been a cold streak he may snap off 3 in a week before having another cold streak. Jason has an impossibly low .239 BABIP Someone who hits around 20% line drives like Jason and has his speed shouldn't have a BABIP below .300 normally. If his HR/FB was closer to his career average, and his BABIP was .300 his slash would be (rounding down even though I should round his hits up) .245/.336/.394. Not amazing, but considering that's not involving any kind of normalization of his doubles total or the likely lower K numbers that will come in a larger sample.

Heyward has sucked offensively so far this year, but nothing about his approach or results on batted balls aside from HR/FB screams anything out of the ordinary. He's right around his career averages his discipline stats as well. He's up on some down on some, but nothing crazy. It's not like he's all of the sudden chasing an abnormally large amount of balls out of the zone.

I think Keith Law had a piece where he showed how shifts are lowering BABIP. I've thought that in the past and have said so on numerous occasions. Until Jason learns to go the other way consistently I think his BABIP will continue to underperform the underlying numbers.

[zitothebrave]

I think Keith Law had a piece where he showed how shifts are lowering BABIP. I've thought that in the past and have said so on numerous occasions. Until Jason learns to go the other way consistently I think his BABIP will continue to underperform the underlying numbers.

Shifts hurt you for grounders. Heyward's lost a few to the shift because of SS playing up the middle. But he has hit into some bad luck liners like smoking one but it goes right to the right fielder. Pretty much every left handed hitter and right handed hitter has a significant pull streak.

Personally I hope Jason works on his bunting. If he can get good at laying them down the 3B line he can put defenses out of the normal shift. Unlike most LH power hitters (Mac, Howard, Ortiz, etc.) Jason can fly. If he can learn that bunt technique to only use maybe once a week tops. it will cause the shift to soften and open up the middle a bit. That's where he's losing most his hits. Unlike Mac, Ortiz, and Howard Jason doesn't tend to crush grounders to the 2B hole. He hits his share over there but not at the frequency of those guys. He more loses his hits up the middle that are open to guys not on the shift.

[thewupk]

The only other thing I will say is that there was a 10 year period where Andruw was 3rd best position player in baseball despite 90% of Braves fans thinking he under performed becuase of his streaky offense. Now I'm not saying Jason is the defender that Andruw was but the same logic applies. Heyward is extremely valuable even if he never gets better as a hitter than he has currently shown in the majors. And I suspect if he stays with Atlanta for the majory of his career you will see the same ignorant things said about him that was said about Andruw.

[nsacpi]

I'll attempt to give a quick breakdown of Freeman, Heyward and Justin Upton using 2012-2014 numbers, but not undue weight to what is so far a small sample for 2014.

Line drive %: Freeman 27%, Heyward 20%, Justin 22%

BABIP: Freeman .350, Heyward .290, Justin .330

The numbers above are not for 2014, nor any a particular year, but what I think their underlying level is based upon what they've done in recent years and what I would expect on average from them over the next two or three seasons. Obviously, you will get variance from year to year and even more from month to month.

Adding a couple more:

Walk rate: Freeman 10%, Heyward 11%, Justin 11%
Strikeout rate: Freeman 18%, Heyward 20%, Justin 25%
ISO: Freeman .200, Heyward .190, Justin .200

Taking it all together, I think the ranking is fairly clear. Freeman, Justin and Jason in that order. But that is the ordering only for their hitting ability. Obviously there is more to being a player than hitting. And also obviously it is more difficult to quantify defensive value (and to some extent base running value) than it is hitting value. So difficult in fact that I won't attempt to do it here. I will note, however, that the fact that measuring those things is difficult does not mean that the front office can afford to ignore them. If anything it means you put more resources into trying to gain insights into them in order to get an edge over other teams.

[thethe]

Shifts hurt you for grounders. Heyward's lost a few to the shift because of SS playing up the middle. But he has hit into some bad luck liners like smoking one but it goes right to the right fielder. Pretty much every left handed hitter and right handed hitter has a significant pull streak.

Personally I hope Jason works on his bunting. If he can get good at laying them down the 3B line he can put defenses out of the normal shift. Unlike most LH power hitters (Mac, Howard, Ortiz, etc.) Jason can fly. If he can learn that bunt technique to only use maybe once a week tops. it will cause the shift to soften and open up the middle a bit. That's where he's losing most his hits. Unlike Mac, Ortiz, and Howard Jason doesn't tend to crush grounders to the 2B hole. He hits his share over there but not at the frequency of those guys. He more loses his hits up the middle that are open to guys not on the shift.

I'd love it if Jason bunted more. There is no way they would be able to shift him if he dropped 5-10 bunt attempts a week.