Trading Away a Starting Pitcher

[nsacpi]

We have had the luxury this season of having six strong candidates for the starting rotation. Acknowledging the tendency of pitchers to break down, this is something to be enjoyed. We should not be a hurry to do something about it. But if all six remain healthy as we get close to the trading deadline, we should consider moving one of them if the right kind of offer comes along.

Whether or not we trade one of our starters we should find a way to reinsert Alex Wood into the rotation at some point in July. Why? There are two reasons. One having to do with this season. One having to do with next season. The Braves do not like to sharply increase the innings of their young pitchers. They like to push the number of innings up by 30-40 a year, and there is some research to back up their concerns about injury risk when you ramp up innings too fast.

Alex Wood pitched a total of 140 innings last year. Ideally, he goes 170-180 this year. This would set him up to go 200 or so next year. Keeping him in the pen the rest of this year would put the club in a situation of having to limit his innings next year.

The second consideration has to do with this year. Simply put, there is a strong argument to be made that Alex is one one of our top 5 starters this year and that moving him into the rotation will make the team better. Looking at his numbers as a starter, he put up an xFIP of 2.18 in 2013 (11 starts) and 2.98 this year (7 starts). That compares favorably to our other starters. Santana has x-FIP of 3.69 and 3.38 last year and this year, Harang is at 4.38 and 3.51. And Floyd is at 3.37 this year. Floyd didn't pitch much last year, so for reference I'll mention he had a 4.26 xFIP in 2012.

To get an idea of expected performance for the rest of this year, I would average xFIP for this year and last year, or this year and 2012 in the case of Floyd. Doing this puts Wood first, then Santana with a clear edge over the remaining two. Harang and Floyd would end up pretty close using this method.

We should be fairly realistic about what we might get back in a trade involving those guys at the deadline. With two months left in the season, Harang and Floyd would be valued at about 1 win above replacement. Harang has a very low salary, so his surplus value will be higher. Teams might be willing to overpay a little at the deadline for a veteran pitcher in good form but at best they will be given a surplus valuation of about 1 WAR or $6 million.

Keeping that in mind, a trade could be structured in several ways. Money is fungible and we should always be happy to accept that even if it is in the form of the other team taking on part of the salary of a player we want to get rid of. Prospects are also fungible and we should be willing to accept payment in that form as well. It should be noted that a prospect with an expected value of 1 WAR is not the type you would see in BA's Top 100 list. It would, however, be a player in the bottom half of a team's list of Top 10 prospects.

Finally, we could use Floyd or Harang to try to directly improve the major league roster. We could upgrade the bench or the pen. Our one need in the starting lineup is at third base. But it seems unlikely we could find an improvement over Chris Johnson in that sort of trade. Unless we enhanced what was going to the other team beyond Floyd or Harang.

[50PoundHead]

I'm not going to say "No! No! A thousand times no!" but starting pitching is the name of the game. Look at the Giants. A subpar line-up with great starting pitching.

I agree that neither of these guys would net much, likely a bench guy, bullpen arm, or mid-level prospect. A lot will depend on how the standings are shaping up at the deadline and what the trend for both us and our competitors is at that juncture.

[nsacpi]

Wren was just on ESPN XM and said the main thing he would like to add before the trade deadline would be some depth for the bullpen. I don't think we're necessarily looking at a starter for a reliever deal. Could be two separate deals.

I think he'll wait until we're pretty close to the deadline. He doesn't want to deal a starter and have one of the others go down a week later. Also he needs some time to see how things shake out with Walden and Venters. And also how Simmons does in his audition. The situation with Venters is a big question mark. He might never make it back. I think if we pick up a reliever it will be a lefty. Last year we picked up Scott Downs. I'd aim for someone performing at a higher level. Of course it would cost more.

[50PoundHead]

We are going to need another reliever. I don't have a huge problem with Varvaro, but he's Christhian Martinez redux. He shouldn't be in the situation he was placed last evening, which is well outside his assigned role. But there are going to be times when the last guy in the pen is going to have to be someone who can step into that role.

Curious what this says about Carpenter in that he wasn't Fredi's automatic choice to try and close it out in the 10th.

[nsacpi]

We are going to need another reliever. I don't have a huge problem with Varvaro, but he's Christhian Martinez redux. He shouldn't be in the situation he was placed last evening, which is well outside his assigned role. But there are going to be times when the last guy in the pen is going to have to be someone who can step into that role.

Curious what this says about Carpenter in that he wasn't Fredi's automatic choice to try and close it out in the 10th.

The radio guys talked about Carpenter some last night. They said Roger needed to rebuild his confidence. But it looks to me like he has lost command of his slider (which was never great to start with).

[Julio3000]

The radio guys talked about Carpenter some last night. They said Roger needed to rebuild his confidence. But it looks to me like he has lost command of his slider (which was never great to start with).

Seems like he's got to have a secondary pitch to be successful. His fastball is big and straight, but eminently hittable by big-leaguers unless he mixes it up. I doubt that we're counting on Venters. Walden + Simmons stops the bleeding, but doesn't account for any more losses to injury. It makes sense to be looking for BP depth.

[Tapate50]

Just from early info, I'd be counting on Simmons to stick. Kid looks to be ready for prime time .

[The Chosen One]

I don't think Carpenter ever had great confidence tbh. The confidence he might've had last year was the faux confidence that Chad Paronto had in 2006. The "Feed Me More" mentality that many people mistook for being confident.

Walden coming back healthy should shore up our pen, and we'll have to see what we can get out of Johnny B Badd.

[Julio3000]

I don't think Carpenter ever had great confidence tbh. The confidence he might've had last year was the faux confidence that Chad Paronto had in 2006. The "Feed Me More" mentality that many people mistook for being confident.

Walden coming back healthy should shore up our pen, and we'll have to see what we can get out of Johnny B Badd.

Paronto definitely required a lot of feeding.

[NinersSBChamps]

Glenn Perkins please.

[cajunrevenge]

What I want to is trade Harang/Floyd for whatever we can get for them then trade for Price. Go with a rotation of Teheran/Price/Minor/Santana/Wood. To get price I think we have to give Sims + Peraza + more but that puts us in great position to chase a championship for 2 years. Teheran/Price is a sick 1-2 going into the playoffs.

[NinersSBChamps]

What I want to is trade Harang/Floyd for whatever we can get for them then trade for Price. Go with a rotation of Teheran/Price/Minor/Santana/Wood. To get price I think we have to give Sims + Peraza + more but that puts us in great position to chase a championship for 2 years. Teheran/Price is a sick 1-2 going into the playoffs.

We aren't adding any serious payroll. Wren said they will get back to budget during the season. Basically we can't take on any more salary. You know he had to beg and plead with ownership to get Santana here.

[nsacpi]

I understand this team is in win now mode which has some effect on our discount factor. But Peraza and Sims is too steep for Price.

[UNCBlue012]

I think there's a good chance we will see either Harang or Floyd for a good relief arm at some point.

[Tapate50]

But we don't have any Sp depth!?

[The Chosen One]

I'd trade Harang for the simple fact, he's the perfect candidate that Fredi or Bobby would use as a starter in a must-win playoff game to avoid elimination. Freddy Garcia 2.0.

[Tapate50]

I'd trade Harang for the simple fact, he's the perfect candidate that Fredi or Bobby would use as a starter in a must-win playoff game to avoid elimination. Freddy Garcia 2.0.

And pitch well.

[50PoundHead]

I understand this team is in win now mode which has some effect on our discount factor. But Peraza and Sims is too steep for Price.

I don't worship our minor league prospects, but it would be foolhardy to trade our best pitching prospect and best position player prospect for a short-term fix. Our minor league system isn't brimming with top drawer prospects as it is.

[Tapate50]

I don't worship our minor league prospects, but it would be foolhardy to trade our best pitching prospect and best position player prospect for a short-term fix. Our minor league system isn't brimming with top drawer prospects as it is.

1000x this.

[Enscheff]

The best bench piece Wren could get right now is a LHed hitting guy that can split time with CJ at 3B. And no, Pena is not that guy.

It doesn't really matter which of Santana/Harang/Floyd is traded away at the deadline. I would suggest Harang simply because he will not be given a QO, so his departure will not benefit the organization at all unless he is traded. Floyd and Santana could very well warrant a QO after this season, and the resulting draft pick will be more valuable than anything they could bring back in trade.