Originally Posted by
nsacpi
It is also interesting to speculate how our top prospects fit in with our team's needs.
What we've seen so far from La Stella suggests he has a good chance of holding down second base for the next six years. This would necessitate a move for Peraza. I think he is most likely to be our center fielder or third baseman of the future.
Bethancourt obviously will be one of our catchers when he is ready. I don't see him beating out Gattis for the starting catcher role. But he will be a very good backup. Ditto for Caratini who also at this point projects more as a second-string catcher.
Victor Reyes is our best corner outfield prospect. It remains to be seen if we are able to sign Heyward and Justin Upton to long-term deals. If not, then a path opens up for Reyes. He's still very young so it remains to be seen if he is a major league caliber starter. To be that he will have to develop some power.
Kubitza projects as a very good bench bat, who can play the corner infield and outfield positions. That's a useful kind of player to have. His internal competition for that kind of role includes Terdoslavich and Salcedo.
Elmer Reyes projects as a Ramiro Pena-type utility infielder and may well be Pena's successor in that role in a couple years.
As for the pitching, my rule is that one out of two top prospects at the AA and AAA levels will pan out, and about one out of five at the lower levels will pan out.
That means looking at the higher levels, we have Hursh, Graham, Thomas, Martin, Schlosser, Northcraft and Williams Perez who have potential to contribute at the major league level. I would guess one out that group will be a useful starter and one a useful reliever at the major league level.
At the lower levels we have Simms, Cabrera, Parsons, Falcon, Fulenchek. I wouldn't assume that more than one of them makes it. If we are lucky two.
We also have a group of interesting relievers in AA and AAA: Juan Jaime, Vasquez, Hoyt, Harper, Buchter, Shreve. I think one or two of those will improve enough to have useful major league careers.
So in terms of our pitching prospects, I think the current group in the minors will yield 2 or 3 major league starters and a similar number of useful bullpen arms. If I had to guess, I'd say Sims, Parsons and Hursh are the ones most likely to make it as starters. For the pen I would guess Graham, Thomas and Cabrera.
Of course the Braves over the years have shown a willingness to trade prospects to fill in major league needs. We could potentially spare one or two of Bethancourt/Caratini/Tewell. We also have a bit of a surplus in terms of guys in AA and AAA who project as fifth starter types at the major league level. Teams who need some pitching depth might attach a higher valuation to those guys. I'm thinking especially of Martin, Schlosser, Williams Perez, Northcraft. I would be surprised if we didn't deal one of those guys at the trade deadline or off-season.
