Melvin's July Numbers

[nsacpi]

He is slashing .324/.343/.412 in 36 plate appearances.

Has he turned the corner? Some of his peripherals are less impressive. The strikeout rate in July is 36.1%, higher than any other month so far this year. The walk rate has dropped below what we saw in earlier months to 2.8%. His July numbers have been boosted by a BABIP of .524. That won't last.

His line drive percentage is 19.0% in July, up a little from 17.9% in the first three months. Not enough of an improvement to suggest a much higher BABIP would be justified. He is hitting more ground balls and fewer fly balls in July. Not sure if there is any great significance in that.

Anyone think he has actually turned the corner? Or is this one of those mini streaks that doesn't amount to much?

[gilesfan]

This seems to come up every time he has a mini hot streak. Unfortunately his hot streaks are short and I impressive and his cold streaks last weeks/months.

[zitothebrave]

Mini streak. Though I'm praying it will lead to him turning the corner. But since he hasn't done it yet I think we'll just have to concede we have another bad contract.

[nsacpi]

Here's an angle to think about. Can a run of good luck can launch a player on longer run of improved (and more sustainable) performance? Confidence is a big deal, especially for a player who has been struggling. And a little run of luck can help provide a needed boost in confidence.

Consider Aaron Harang. His first half dozen starts he out-performed his peripherals by a large margin. Regression was a sure thing. And now we see that regression has in fact occurred. But it is interesting to consider the form of that regression. It has come in the form of his ERA, FIP and xFIP numbers converging to the 3.5-4.0 range. But that's better than what he was projected for at the start of the season or what he had produced in recent seasons.

[thethe]

I don't think I've ever seen someone root against a player as much as GF does for BJ.

I would love to know what their history is.

[UNCBlue012]

I sure hope so. I personally like BJ and hate to see the dude play so awfully... especially since he's here for the long haul.

His July has been promising, but his low walk and high K rates tend to show me otherwise.

[Fredi Gonzalez]

The difference is now BJ BOlieves. He was inspired by Bo Dallas and now that he BOlieves he is unstoppable.

[NinersSBChamps]

I don't think I've ever seen someone root against a player as much as GF does for BJ.

I would love to know what their history is.

Hmm a GF and a BJ?

[BlackwaterPark]

Who is Melvin?

[GovClintonTyree]

Hmm a GF and a BJ?

Nice catch.

[GovClintonTyree]

I don't think I've ever seen someone root against a player as much as GF does for BJ.

I would love to know what their history is.

Well, in the offseason before 2013, Melvin rejected GF's beloved Natinals in favor of the tomahawk. It's been predictably downhill ever since.

[GovClintonTyree]

I'm going to lean the other way,and say turning the corner (with the BABIP caveat).

We can slice and dice numbers all we want, but in the end, hitting is confidence. It's keeping your head up and scraping and grinding when you're not in a rhythm and riding that wave all the way to the shore when you are.

There have been times during this year and a half of epic suckitude when Melvin has hit the ball in bad luck (early this year, for example). And while that's not altogether controllable, I think it's tough to keep your head up. In fact, I know it is.

Then your manager inexplicably bumps you up in the order, you have a flair fall in, beat one out in the hole, get a Texas Leaguer, pretty soon you're in business. You're not as tight. You let it flow instead of trying to force it.

Simply put, Melvin is a better hitter than he's shown (as difficult as it is for me to believe, he had 1200 at bats at a .385 OBP his first two years as a regular). Now he's getting some breaks for the first time as a Brave. And he's swinging the bat well. I am sure he'll walk more than he has in July, and that will replace a piece of lost BABIP when he comes back to earth.

So I'm going to say he's turned a corner. I don't think it's smooth six-lane interstate, but it's not pitted shell rock on the way to the landfill, either.