Next 300 game winner

[depley]

Lets do some comparing here with 35. Clayton Kershaw (7, 26) 89 L
Glavine at age 26 had 73 wins, but at 7 seasons 95 wins. He pitched for 15 years after that basically without missing a start to get to 305 wins.
Maddux at age 26 had 95 wins which was also 7 seasons. He pitched for 18 years after that again without basically missing a start for 355 wins.

To basically equal those 2 at 7 years Kershaw need to win 6 more games this season. But does anyone think Kershaw will go 15-18 years without injury?

[50PoundHead]

I think 250 wins or maybe even less than that is going to be the mark we look for.

Agree. The game has changed so much and the only one I see on the list that I would give a greater than 50/50 chance would be Felix Hernandez.

[Bravesfan205]

I don't think we will see it happen anytime soon. To reach 300 wins a pitcher has to average 15 wins a season for 20 years. Too many pitchers today are getting injured and missing time and realistically if a pitcher misses a season or two that almost ends their chances to make it. Hernandez is still a long ways away and he's only averaged 14 wins per year in his career. It would take him 13 more years at that pace to reach it and it would put him at 41 years old. Kershaw is also a long shot but if he could keep the same pace for the next 13-14 years he could make it too. Maybe David Price or Justin Verlander if they have some big years.

I just don't see it happening with injuries and as pitcher age they become less effective. It's just hard for a pitcher to have a 20 win season nowadays and reaching 300 seems nearly impossible without having a few 20 win seasons. Not to mention most of these pitchers rely on a good fastball to win games and as they age and lose velocity they will quickly decline.

[Julio3000]

I think 250 is the new 300.

[nsacpi]

Similarity scores give some idea of the odds of a particular player getting to 300.

Only two of the top 10 similarity scores to Clayton Kershaw went on to win 300. Seaver and Clemens. So he has a roughly 1 in 5 chance.

Interestingly, for Felix Hernandez only two of the top 10 matches also went on to win 300. Maddux and Sutton in his case.

[Bravesfan205]

I think a guy with an outside chance is Mark Buehrle. He is at 196 wins and is only 35 (I feel like he's been around forever) but he has pitching style that could be successful in to his early 40's if he stays healthy. 8 more seasons around 13 wins and he makes it. That's not too much of a stretch.