Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, and Resting Those Wee Baby Arms

[jpx7]

There's a report on ESPN today regarding the Cardinals scheme for regulating Shelby Miller's inning a little bit, as they both monitor the rookie's workload and eye the postseason:

Everyone in the rotation is getting extra rest, including All-Star Adam Wainwright. No one's gap between starts is anywhere near as long as that of the 22-year-old Miller, who'll have 13 days before his next scheduled start Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Miller is 9-6 with a 2.92 ERA in 104 2/3 innings, third-most on the staff. He got two extra days before making his last start prior to the break and realizes the strategy is in his best interests.

[...]

The Cardinals have not set an innings threshold for Miller. He totaled a career-high 153 2/3 innings last year, including 17 late in the season and in the postseason for St. Louis.

Like Miller, Teheran is a 22-year-old who's accrued a decent number of major-league innings already this season (104.2 and 113.0, respectively, in 18 starts each) as impressive and fairly dominant rookie starters, who've moreover become stalwarts of two of the better rotations in the National League, not to mention key members of two teams leading the only two NL divisions of note at the moment. Likewise, Teheran's career-high in innings-pitched is pretty closer to Miller's: 162.1, a total reached in 2011 as a 20-year-old bouncing between Gwinnett and Atlanta. In 2012, Teheran pitched 151.0 innings — rather proximal to Miller's 153.2 from last season.

Contextualized thus, the question becomes: Should the Braves be scheming similarly to preserve Teheran's right arm for the (hopefully) likely postseason run? Heretofore, we've heard little from the Braves on the matter — though certainly the developments with Alex Wood could be related. If we presume the total regular-season innings-pitched target for Teheran is roughly congruent with the one Miller suggests is the Cardinals' target for him – about 180 IP – then certainly Teheran is well on his way.

Should the Braves therefore be planning to strategically skip some of Teheran's starts over the next two-and-a-half months, perhaps using some combination of Wood and Beachy to supplement the rotation? Or would the team and Teheran be better served by shutting him down for a few weeks, or by (more likely) moving him to the bullpen, and then stretching him back out in September? The Strasburg Scenario seems barely worth mentioning, but it is a possibility as well. Or should Teheran simply pitch as many innings as he's going to pitch, protective measures be damned?

[yeezus]

I really don't understand why they both can't throw 200.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think 200 for Julio is too big of a risk. He's already exceeded 160 back in 2011. And probably would have last year if not for his struggles (I imagine the pitch totals were close to last year or higher)

I would probably set like a 190 limit for him for the regular season.

[NYCBrave]

We're going to have to figure out something with Teheran in order to have him available for the playoffs, and we need him, he's one of our best starters. Currently he's on pace to surpass last year's IP total by a wide margin. Didn't he also pitch in a Winter League? I don't know what counts and what doesn't.

[The Chosen One]

Maybe this is why Alex Wood is being stretched out? So he can give Teheran an extra day of rest which will lead to him having 2-3 less starts by the end of the year (15-20 innings potentially).

[jpx7]

Maybe this is why Alex Wood is being stretched out? So he can give Teheran an extra day of rest which will lead to him having 2-3 less starts by the end of the year (15-20 innings potentially).

Yea, as I alluded in the initial post, I'm starting to suspect this is the reason for the recent developments with Wood, stretching his arm back out to start et cetera.

[Julio3000]

That seems more likely than the Medlen-to-the-bullpen scenario.