The Consistent Justin Upton

[MadduxFanII]

In 2013, Justin "Grit" Upton was a perfectly solid player for us: .263/.354/.464 with 27 home runs and 94 runs scored. Tons of strikeouts, but that wasn't unusual for us, and he hit well overall.

Still, there was that nagging inconsistency problem. You don't have to be Kirk Gibson to find some of the monthly OPS splits a little annoying:

April: 1.136
May: .654
June: .616
July: .757
August: 1.023
September/Oct: .743

It's a reflection of how brilliant Upton was in April and in August when we put away the Nationals that his numbers ended up as solid as they were. And normally I'm not a big fan of going on about "inconsistency;" that's why we have season totals, after all, to account for both hot and cold streaks. Still, last year was an extreme, and it was legitimately a problem to have Justin hitting like a back-up catcher for two months in the middle of the order. July and September/October, while not good, are basically in the realm of "standard-issue mediocre month."

But this year...ah, so much better:

April: 1.041
May: .877
June: .617
July: .903
August: .967

A crummy June, of course, and April was again the best month, but that's a perfectly reasonable, consistent season. He had one particularly awful stretch toward the end of April/beginning of June that coincided with our first seven-game losing streak, and seemed to see him coming to the plate with runners on base every time, but he's generally been a really solid, day-in, day-out performer. He's also on pace to play 154 games this year, which was another point of concern when we traded for him.

He's always going to be streaky in a game-to-game sense; he had a four-strikeout game against Seattle just a few days ago. But that won't do much harm if he staunches the bleeding and keeps the bad streaks to a couple games at a time.

[sturg33]

Justin is our best hitter, in my opinion. The folks who hate him are idiots, in my opinion.

[MadduxFanII]

Justin is our best hitter, in my opinion. The folks who hate him are idiots, in my opinion.

Coincidentally, the Diamondbacks are also idiots, in my opinion.

[NinersSBChamps]

Justin is our best hitter, in my opinion. The folks who hate him are idiots, in my opinion.

Wrong and nobody hates him either.

[Julio3000]

He has been our best hitter, and has been a monster since the ASB. He's one of the best in the league, and I'd love to see us extent him.

And, for a guy who got knocked as "Mr. Solo HR," it's worth nothing that 12 of his 23 HRs have come with men on base.

[Julio3000]

Wrong and nobody hates him either.

He has probably surpassed Heyward as the guy taking the most unwarranted heat.

[gilesfan]

Good points MF. While his defense is not good at all, he more than makes up for it with the bat. Him and Freeman are head and shoulders above anyone else on the roster offensively.

Its pretty sad that with him and Freeman, we have two very good hitters and still can't put up a decent offense because the other 6 are so bad. I mean just have 6 average to slightly below average guys and we'd have at least a top 5 offense.

[bravesnumberone]

He's been terrific. If we make the playoffs and (gasp) have success, assuming he's still doing well, he'll be in the top 4-5 for MVP voting or should be anyway.

I just wish he was good enough defensively to play RF, so Heyward could play center and we wouldn't have to endure BJ.

[AerchAngel]

Good points MF. While his defense is not good at all, he more than makes up for it with the bat. Him and Freeman are head and shoulders above anyone else on the roster offensively.

Its pretty sad that with him and Freeman, we have two very good hitters and still can't put up a decent offense because the other 6 are so bad. I mean just have 6 average to slightly below average guys and we'd have at least a top 5 offense.

wut? The disrespect Heyward gets is daunting.

[Enscheff]

Good points MF. While his defense is not good at all, he more than makes up for it with the bat. Him and Freeman are head and shoulders above anyone else on the roster offensively.

Its pretty sad that with him and Freeman, we have two very good hitters and still can't put up a decent offense because the other 6 are so bad. I mean just have 6 average to slightly below average guys and we'd have at least a top 5 offense.

I think Heyward (.350 OBP), Gattis (800+ OPS), and TLS (.350 OBP) would disagree with that statement.

[Garmel]

He's compacted his swing even more which has done wonders for his game. You'll notice that he can get around on fastballs this year better than previous years.

[The Chosen One]

Amazing that BJ is getting no love here.

He's singlehandedly won us a few games against the Nationals, otherwise the deficit in the division would be even bigger. Overshadowed by his younger brother who's putting up slightly better numbers than he is, in a down year for Melvin.

[yeezus]

I think Heyward (.350 OBP), Gattis (800+ OPS), and TLS (.350 OBP) would disagree with that statement.

Please do not feed the trolls.
Thank you and enjoy the rest of your stay.

[gilesfan]

I think Heyward (.350 OBP), Gattis (800+ OPS), and TLS (.350 OBP) would disagree with that statement.

Outside of Freeman and Upton, the Braves are hitting .234/.292/.336 as a team. The NL average is .249/.312/.383. Thus, if they were surrounded simply with 6 average to below average guys, the offense would be top 5.

They also combine for 40% of the homers. Combined they provide .290/.372/.502.

Gattis and Heyward have been above average. TLS has been slightly above average offensively in terms of wOBA (.313 vs. .307)

Johnson, Simmons, BJ have been well below average.

[cajunrevenge]

My problem is where he is hitting. He should be no lower than third. I think he just gets better pitches to hit with no one on base. His batting average is .316 with none on and .255 with men on base.

I also worry about how he will age. He seems like he gets by on pure talent than hard work and instincts. As he ages and that athleticism declines I could see him not being able to adjust. With all his talent he still misses a lot of meatballs right down the middle of the plate. If I was Wren I would ask for a discount to keep BJ around. We overpaid BJ by 75 million. The least Justin can do is take a 2-3 mill a year discount to make up for some of that. I would offer him 6 years 108 million that's 18 per year. If he won't take that then I would shop him. I know he has been good but this is the highest his value has been since April 2013.

[tomahawkchop10]

Outside of Freeman and Upton, the Braves are hitting .234/.292/.336 as a team. The NL average is .249/.312/.383. Thus, if they were surrounded simply with 6 average to below average guys, the offense would be top 5.

They also combine for 40% of the homers. Combined they provide .290/.372/.502.

Gattis and Heyward have been above average. TLS has been slightly above average offensively in terms of wOBA (.313 vs. .307)

Johnson, Simmons, BJ have been well below average.

You basically just agreed with him. Don't say all other 6 players are bad, when in reality it's only 3 players that are making the offense look so bad.

[gilesfan]

You basically just agreed with him. Don't say all other 6 players are bad, when in reality it's only 3 players that are making the offense look so bad.

My words were if the Braves had 6 other average to slightly below average hitters, they would be top 5. In aggregate, the other 6 are bad (see numbers). Not hard to understand.

[sturg33]

My words were if the Braves had 6 other average to slightly below average hitters, they would be top 5. In aggregate, the other 6 are bad (see numbers). Not hard to understand.

GF said:

we have two very good hitters and still can't put up a decent offense because the other 6 are so bad

[MadduxFanII]

I also worry about how he will age. He seems like he gets by on pure talent than hard work and instincts. As he ages and that athleticism declines I could see him not being able to adjust.

I think there's a perfectly reasonable argument against giving Justin the big-money, long-term contract his performance dictates. I certainly don't know that he gets by "on pure talent." I'm sure he works very hard. But it is true that he's put on a fair bit of weight over the last few years, and he's already lost a lot of the athleticism that made him a #1 pick; I don't think he's an awful left fielder, but it's sort of funny to think of him playing CF when he first came up.

There's a pretty good chance Justin won't age well, though his hit tool is impressive enough that he'll probably be able to scrape out reasonably value seasons for a while yet. But let's not delude ourselves into thinking that letting Upton go after next year doesn't tear a massive hole in our lineup, because it surely does.

[jsebe10]

I'm very confused here. I haven't read anyone saying they hate Justin Upton. In fact, the only thing I have read was that he's pretty inconsistent with runners on in pressure situations (ie: innings. 7-9) and I agree with that assessment. But I will say that he is far from the reason we are 7 out in the loss column in the division. I really hope we can extend but he's going to want Steve Jobs money and you know our Hebrew ownership...you do the math