Positional Overview of the Farm System

[nsacpi]

To understand what Frank Wren will do this off-season a grasp of what we have in the farm system is indispensable. What are the areas we can afford to trade from. Which positions have internal long-term solutions and which ones don't. How far away are those internal solutions from being major league ready.

Here is my take on a position-by-position basis.

Catcher-depth was weakened some by the trade of Caratini. But we're still pretty strong here. Bello and Tewell finished the year at Lynchburg and will man the upper levels in 2015. Murphy and Flores showed some promise in the rookie leagues. And of course, we have Gattis and Bethancourt as a strong duo at the major league level. In terms of major league ready talent that could be traded away, those two constitute our strongest hypothetical trade chip going into the off-season. I have a view as to which one we should keep (Gattis) and which one we should trade (Bethancourt) but one way or another I suspect one of those two will be included in our biggest deal this off-season.

Middle Infield-here our cup runneth over. Including young guys in the majors our system has Simmons, Peraza, Albies, La Stella, Gosselin, Pastornicky, Elmer Reyes, Castro, Camargo, Dykstra, Didder, Obregon, JJ Franco, Alejandro Salazar, McElroy. Not all will pan out. Some will change positions. But the depth here will allow us to include a decent middle infield prospect if we have to add a little to get a deal done. For the purposes of long-term planning it is important to note that Simmons, Peraza and Albies are in a higher class than the others in that they project as potentially above average everyday players. My guess is we hold on to those three with the plan to keep Simmons at short, have either Peraza or Albies be the long-term second baseman and shift the other to a different position (third or center).

Corner Infield-much less depth here. Kubitza took a big step forward this year but still projects more as a bench player. Edgerton had a nice first pro season but also mostly projects as a bench player. Others such as Meneses are even more of a reach.

Center-we have good organizational depth here but no obvious major league starting caliber prospect. Cunningham and Wren will probably both be in AAA next season. To me they both project as major league bench players. But there is always a chance one of them shows some unexpected development. At the lower levels we have guys like Lien, Oliver, Godfrey. Again no one that projects as a major league regular, but maybe a useful player will emerge from the group.

Corner outfield-Braxton Davidson and Victor Reyes are our best prospects there. Both are a long ways from being in the majors, with all the uncertainty that this implies. This situation argues for trying to sign both Heyward and Justin Upton to a long-term extension since no in house replacement is anywhere close to being at hand. Joey T is the most accomplished of the upper level guys but it would be a big drop off is we had to use him as a starter either at first or corner outfield. I do think he will turn out to be a good major league bench player.

I will turn to pitching later.

[The Chosen One]

Gattis or Bethancourt will be traded.

I think Gattis would net a higher value whether it be better prospects, or getting a team to absorb BJ's contract.

CB would be more of a value piece in a bigger deal, whereas a Gattis package could mean we give up less and get more.

If we're going to throw CB out there, we need offense at 3rd and CF to fill in for Evan's departure. If we keep Gattis, then we're going to need a better defensive 3B and offensive CF to cover for Gatti's potential pass balls and errors.

In a dream scenario, CB would produce at least half the offense Evan can where his potential defense would make up for it.

[Dalyn]

I think we should keep Gattis and have Bethancourt as the backup and late-inning defensive replacement. Our offense is terrible. We can't just dump a cheap .800+ OPS catcher. Plus, a year as a MLB backup might be good for Bethancourt.

[The Chosen One]

If Gattis is the only major chip you have to unload BJ you do it. That let's ua keep one of Hey or Justin. Simmons could be another big chip but best defensive shortstop would be tough for me to rid of...

[Dalyn]

I'd like to see us trade for someone like Justin Turner to take a lot of the vs RHP at-bats away from CJ. Not all, but quite a few. Unless we can get Kyle Seager. He would work great in a platoon with CJ.

[keithlaw]

Gattis or Bethancourt will be traded.

I think Gattis would net a higher value whether it be better prospects, or getting a team to absorb BJ's contract.

CB would be more of a value piece in a bigger deal, whereas a Gattis package could mean we give up less and get more.

If we're going to throw CB out there, we need offense at 3rd and CF to fill in for Evan's departure. If we keep Gattis, then we're going to need a better defensive 3B and offensive CF to cover for Gatti's potential pass balls and errors.

In a dream scenario, CB would produce at least half the offense Evan can where his potential defense would make up for it.

Going by Zips and Steamer projections, over 450 PA Gattis is worth 10-25 more runs with the bat than CB. Even if CB's defense only saves 5 more runs than Gattis', we're only looking at a 1 or 2 win drop off at C and the return for Gattis would easily improve us by more than that.

[Jay212033]

If the Braves could get a Taijuan Walker for Evan Gattis I say do it all day! Also if the Braves could get rid of BJ's contract even if it means taking on a contract like Edwin Jackson I'd do it to get a better CF. IMO Jackson would be a better option than Harang in the 5th starters spot especially with a better pitching coach.

[nsacpi]

With respect to pitching we have a decent number of guys who project as relievers and 5th starter types. But we're thin in terms of guys who project to be league average or better as starters in the majors.

This was a tough year in terms of starting pitching depth for the organization. We lost Medlen and Beachy in spring training. Graham did not bounce back from his shoulder injury. And Mauricio Cabrera missed a big chunk of the season with an injury, which may have caused the organization to look at him more as a prospective reliever than starter.

Our best starting pitching prospects are Sims, Hursh, Parsons and Grosser. At this point they are the only four that project as major league average or better as starters. That's not a lot when you consider the attrition that is normal for pitching prospects.

After those four there are some intriguing younger guys (Dilmer Mejia, Fulenchek and Miranda) and some solid fifth starter types (Hale, Martin, and maybe a few others such as Northcraft, Schlosser and Williams Perez). Most of these guys will end up in the pen if they make it.

There are also some emerging relievers. Shae Simmons is the best and has already made an impact in the majors. Hopefully, he will recover from his shoulder injury in the off-season. I also like Shreve. Others like Jaime, Harper, Hoyt and Buchter could help too.

I think our organizational depth when it comes to reliever/fifth starter types is ok. When you look at the list of guys who project to play a bigger role in the rotation, you can't help but conclude the list is quite a bit shorter than what you would want in your farm system.

[nsacpi]

Some overall conclusions:

1) Our biggest major league ready trading chip this off-season will be Bethancourt or Gattis.

2) We have a lot of middle infield prospects and young players already in the majors. I think we are not likely to trade Simmons, Peraza and Albies because they already fill important roles or project to fill important roles. But some of our other middle infielders are likely to be moved in trades over the next year or two.

3) At the major league level, we have well defined weaknesses at center and third. We do not have players currently playing those positions in the minors that project as major league starters. However, this does not mean we won't find internal solutions to those positions. Positional changes are one possibility, with Peraza being the most obvious at the moment. In addition, we need to keep an open mind about guys like Kubitza, Wren and Cunningham. It is noteworthy that Peraza, Kubitza, Wren and Cunningham will probably all be in AAA at the start of next season. This implies a short leash for whoever starts the season at center and third on the major league team. I also think whoever is playing second on the major league team should not be too complacent.

4) We have an obvious need for starting pitching, given that two of our current five starters are headed for free agency. We are also thin in top of the line starting pitching prospects. I think we are likely to be in the market for a starter this off-season. There will probably be a competition next spring between Hale and Martin for the fifth starter spot. We may also sign a currently injured starter to an incentive-laden deal to build additional depth.

[Braves1976]

I like our starting pitching core of Teheran, Wood, Minor and Hale (replacing Harang) but we need a replacement for Santana who has been solid overall.

That said, Minor seems back on track to me so I wouldn't trade him. I'd use someone else (not Minor nor Gattis) to move BJ Upton this off-season. I'd do a deal for a pitcher with a bad contract returning most likely. I like Zito's recent post on how to do that and also would consider a deal involving Jackson of the Cubs so long as Minor and Gattis isn't in it.

[cajunrevenge]

I am starting to think we should keep Gattis. CB and Gattis are a good duo. They need to get another utility player that can be the 3rd catcher so Fredi use Gattis aggressively. If CB starts a game and we get behind early pinch hit Gattis for one of our weaker hitters. If Gattis is in and we take a big lead put CB in. Gattis could start in left field when we have a ground ball pitcher starting like Hale. God forbid something happens to Freeman he could full in at first. I don't see why he couldn't stand at 3b if needed. As a catcher he is used to balls coming at him at 90 mph and he should be good at fielding bunts. Add in some DH starts and pinch hitting chances and I think he could get 400-450 at bats.

[FreemanFan]

Gattis seems more suited for the AL as a DH, but if we trade him we'll be starting CB unless a starting catcher comes back in the deal. CB has a rifle arm, but I'm not convinced he is a ML hitter, at least not as a starter. That said, if we can move BJ and his contract we may be able to replace Gattis's power while upgrading defensively at catcher.

[cajunrevenge]

I think CB will be an average offensive catcher eventually. Now that is a low bar to reach. CB struggles a lot in the minors adjusting to a new level. At just about every stop he did eventually figure it out. Once he did the Braves were quick to promote him so he never put up a great season. If there is one thing I like to see from a prospect it's the ability to make adjustments. I would be ecstatic if Bethancourt hits .274 with a .316 OBP next year like he did in his trial this year.

[nsacpi]

I like Zito's recent post on how to do that and also would consider a deal involving Jackson of the Cubs so long as Minor and Gattis isn't in it.

Yeah. That sort of deal makes a lot of sense. BJ plus someone like Hursh or Bethancourt for Jackson. The Blue Jays might also consider a similar deal involving either Dickey or Buehrle.

[50PoundHead]

Nice work.

[57Brave]

Dickey with who behind the plate? Gattis?

[nsacpi]

Dickey with who behind the plate? Gattis?

Having a catcher who can handle the knuckler is always an issue with knuckleball pitchers. When he was traded to the Blue Jays, the Mets also sent Josh Thole to them in the same trade. I believe Thole has been his primary catcher over the years.

[emk418]

Again I just don't see how a team with the worst offense in baseball can justify trading one of it's best young hitters in Gattis.

[The Chosen One]

Again I just don't see how a team with the worst offense in baseball can justify trading one of it's best young hitters in Gattis.

Because Gattis is on the wrong side of 25, he plays catcher and there's no guarantee his bat is going to age well with his body.

If we can trade him in a package to unload BJ that's more money to sign a leadoff hitter or trade for one and flexibility to move CJ as well.