2015 Expectations: The Outfield

[nsacpi]

This will be the first in a series looking ahead to next year. We'll take a look at what is available internally, discuss their projections for 2015 and then expand the debate to whether we should go with what is internally available or look for some external solutions. The projections are mine and meant to kick things off. I'm sure everyone will chime in with their own take. Note all the WAR projections are based upon the player playing a full season. Obviously it is not realistic for those who are likely to be subs but it makes it easier to compare across players.

Justin Upton-for 2015 I'd expect an OPS of about .820 and WAR of 3.5.

Heyward-OPS of .760 and WAR of 6.0.

BJ Upton-OPS of .620 and WAR of 0.5.

Cunningham-OPS of .640 and WAR of 1.5

Terdoslavich-OPS of .680 and WAR of 0.5 (assuming he is playing the outfield)

Constanza-OPS of .620 and WAR of 1.5

Peraza-OPS of .660 and WAR of 2.0 (my assumption is he would be a slightly above average defensive outfielder, and would have significant positive value on the basepaths).

To me this little exercise (some will call it making up numbers, but I think any attempt to discuss what to do next year involves "making up numbers" whether you want to call it that or not) reveals a couple interesting things. One is that (and this is not big surprise) a compelling case exists to move BJ and as much of his contract as possible this off-season. The money saved will increase our flexibility to pursue other objectives, and we lose nothing based upon his expected production versus the expected production of the internal alternatives at center.

The other interesting implication is that Peraza likely will be our best internal option for third outfielder (after Jason and Justin). I say third outfielder because it is unclear whether we would be better off with him or Jason in center. At the same time Peraza's edge is not so large over some of the other internal options that we should hand him the job. There are good reasons, including the need for additional seasoning and adaptation to a new position and service time/arbitration clock considerations, to send him to AAA for a month or two at the start of the season. The other interesting thing about Peraza is that he could well also be our best internal option at third or second. We'll get to that in subsequent installments of this series. The question then becomes how much better is he than the next best alternaltive at center, second and third. As the above indicates I think at center he is slightly better than the next best internal alternative.

One last point, we can reasonably expect the outfield to generate about 2 WAR more in 2015 than 2014. Jason and Justin are young enough that they can be expected to be about the same next year. And since we got nothing from the third spot, a 2 WAR improvement overall from the outfield is a reasonable projection, even if we go entirely with internal options.

[50PoundHead]

I don't see how you get a 1.5 WAR out of either Cunningham or Constanza.

Unless the decks are cleared, I see the same starting OF as this season with the acquisition of a better 4th OF option. I will be curious to see what they do with Peraza during the off-season. We don't get many reports on the instructional league anymore, but it would be interesting if they send him there and have him play some OF.

I think Terdoslavich takes Doumit's place on the roster.

[nsacpi]

I don't see how you get a 1.5 WAR out of either Cunningham or Constanza.

Both are good defenders and have value on the basepaths. In 240 career ML plate appearances, Constanza has generated 0.8 WAR (with a career OPS of .639). So 1.5 for a full season is not crazy.

[Runnin]

I will be shocked and highly disappointed if BJ is in CF and batting leadoff next year. But I will laugh if it's under and new manager.

[Enscheff]

I can't really add to these projections since they seem pretty sound, so I will just dump a few random thoughts:

This is EXACTLY the same scenario the team was in last year at the 2B position. The incumbent (Uggla) was definitely going to be terrible, and all that was available in the system were a bunch of guys that "might" put up a 700 OPS. We all saw how it worked out at 2B, and the same mistake can NOT be allowed to happen in the OF this offseason. The internal options in the OF are worse than the internal options at 2B were last year, there is less money to spend, and there are even fewer trade resources available, so this is going to be an extremely tough problem to fix.

If Heyward is going to be a defense-first slap hitter with on-base skills, then he needs to be used in CF and batting 1-2 with another impact bat playing RF or LF.

Peraza can not be counted on for anything to begin the year, and probably not at all next year if he is indeed moving to CF.

It is abundantly clear, in my opinion, that another OF bat must be brought in from outside the organization. The team is assured to have average or (much) worse offensive production at 3B, SS, 2B, and probably C (if CB is the main starter), so the OF plus Freeman will be forced to score all the runs.

[nsacpi]

One of the external options we have discussed some is Aoki.

I would project him to put up a .730 OPS and 2.5 WAR in 2015.

He's a free agent. My guess is it will take at least $6M/year on a 2-3 year contract to sign him.

[Hawk]

I would be stunned if the Braves committed $12-15MM+ to Aoki (unless we are referring to Steve Aoki, who would actually draw me out to a game as opposed to The Newsboys, Cole Swindell, or Austin Mahone).

Nori is a luxury this team can't afford.

There are other free agent options available that will command less and possess a similar skillset, anyways. Denorfia off the top of my head.

[Enscheff]

An OFer that is competent offensively is a luxury? I would argue it is a necessity if the Braves want to compete next year.

I'm pretty sure I was the first one to bring up Aoki as a possible target this offseason. Over the past 3 years Aoki has been a consistent .280+ BA, .350+ OBP, 20+ SBs, and is actually better agasint LHed pitching than RHed pitching.

That is the EXACT skillset this team needs to pair with Hewyard at the top of the lineup. Those two batting 1-2 and putting up a .350+ OBP with excellent base running skills in front of Freeman, Justin, and Gattis is the way MLB lineups are supposed to function. I know it's been a long time since Braves fans have seen a real lineup, but the top of your lineup is NOT supposed to contain guys with a .300 or worse OBP.

[ramadon101]

An OFer that is competent offensively is a luxury? I would argue it is a necessity if the Braves want to compete next year.

I'm pretty sure I was the first one to bring up Aoki as a possible target this offseason. Over the past 3 years Aoki has been a consistent .280+ BA, .350+ OBP, 20+ SBs, and is actually better agasint LHed pitching than RHed pitching.

That is the EXACT skillset this team needs to pair with Hewyard at the top of the lineup. Those two batting 1-2 and putting up a .350+ OBP with excellent base running skills in front of Freeman, Justin, and Gattis is the way MLB lineups are supposed to function. I know it's been a long time since Braves fans have seen a real lineup, but the top of your lineup is NOT supposed to contain guys with a .300 or worse OBP.

I'd be surprised if the Braves DIDN'T target Aoki, to be frank.

[Hawk]

Aoki is an aging, slightly above average defender with decent on-base skills, zero power, and average speed. His OPS/SB/HR/SLG/BA/SB have all decreased over the past three years.

I mean, you are right, he surely beats the alternative -- but sorry for not jumping up and down with exuberance over 'competency'.

[ramadon101]

Aoki is an aging, slightly above average defender with decent on-base skills, zero power, and average speed. His OPS/SB/HR/SLG/BA/SB have all decreased over the past three years.

I mean, you are right, he surely beats the alternative -- but sorry for not jumping up and down with exuberance over 'competency'.

Oh he's no world beater but he'd represent an upgrade (even if it's a slight one). That being said, I wouldn't go more than 2 years for him (he's not terribly old- he's 32 and still grades out average to slightly above average in a corner OF spot). Good bench option but he if he gets pricey, then forget about it and move on.

[drewdat]

If we did get him, can we agree to call him Nooch? I've been looking for something to fill the NOOCH void since OKC got their own NBA franchise.

[cajunrevenge]

Glad to see some people on the Aoki bandwagon. His age does concern me as he does seem to be declining. For those of you who say we need "clutch" hitters Aoki has a .309 batting average in high leverage situations including .325 this year. That said in wouldn't sign him for more than 2 years.

I like the projections for the outfield. Would probably go to .850 for Justin. I really don't think Peraza is going to be playing the outfield. Braves seem pretty committed to him at second.

[Julio3000]

Aoki is an aging, slightly above average defender with decent on-base skills, zero power, and average speed. His OPS/SB/HR/SLG/BA/SB have all decreased over the past three years.

I mean, you are right, he surely beats the alternative -- but sorry for not jumping up and down with exuberance over 'competency'.

Braves baseball 2015—competence is the new excellence!

[zitothebrave]

I would be stunned if the Braves committed $12-15MM+ to Aoki (unless we are referring to Steve Aoki, who would actually draw me out to a game as opposed to The Newsboys, Cole Swindell, or Austin Mahone).

Nori is a luxury this team can't afford.

There are other free agent options available that will command less and possess a similar skillset, anyways. Denorfia off the top of my head.

For me how we approach 2015 starts with if we extend Jason or not. if we don't he's our CF in 2015. It's a simple fit, no long term risk of adding miles to his legs as that's someone else's problems. If Jason doesn't extend and we can get anyone to take Bossman (trade him for another bad contract) Mike Morse or Nelson Cruz could be worth sniffing around.

[cajunrevenge]

Braves baseball 2015—competence is the new excellence!

You learn to appreciate average when you watch BJ. The sad thing is he is actually a lot better than last year, and he still sucks horrifically.

[50PoundHead]

I don't like Schafer that much as a player, but he's better than either Cunningham or Constanza.

But here's what I do. I sign Bonifacio (provided his demands are reasonable) and keep Gosselin around. Bonifacio is the 4th OF as well as super-sub around the IF. Gosselin can play LF. Then I find a guy who can at least stand in LF or RF, but is a solid pinch-hitter. Allen Craig has had a terrible season and I don't think he's in the Red Sox long-term plans, so maybe someone like him.

All plans are contingent on what they do about M. Upton. If he's gone, who knows?

[bravesnumberone]

I hesitate to say this because some of you are so touchy, but Justin has to avoid going through long dry spells next year. That's what separating him from being a serious MVP contender right now. Also hope Heyward will have a true breakout season where he performs better against lefties. These are two very good hitters, but it's time to see them take it to another level throughout a season.

[KB21]

How much would moving Heyward to center diminish his defensive impact?

[zitothebrave]

How much would moving Heyward to center diminish his defensive impact?

Not too much. I mean his defensive value would go way down, but his offensive value would go way up. Should be basically a wash between the 2.