2015 Expectations: Corner Infield

[nsacpi]

Obviously things are more settled at first than third. Projections for internal candidates once again assuming they play something close to a full season:

Freeman: .860 OPS and 4.5 WAR

Terdoslavich (playing first): .680 OPS and 0 WAR

Now for the interesting part, third base.

Chris Johnson: .720 OPS and 1.5 WAR (basically about midway between his 2013 and 2014 seasons)

Peraza: .660 and 2.0 WAR (less hitting but significantly better defense and baserunning than Johnson)

Gosselin: .660 and 1.5 WAR (significant BABIP regression likely but above average defense)

Pastornicky: .670 and 1.0 WAR (I think his a slightly better hitter than Gosselin but inferior defender at third)

Pena: .640 and 0 WAR (the definition of a replacement player)

Elmer Reyes: .640 and 0 WAR (similar to Pena but younger and a bit more upside, would benefit from more time in AAA)

Kubitza: .700 and 1.5 WAR (similar numbers to Johnson, but different mix of walks and hits, would benefit from time in AAA, some upside)

In some ways the situation is similar to center. You have a guy with a multi-year contract, though CJ's is not as bad as BJ's. You have some in-house alternatives to the big contract guy who are about the same or project a little better. Given the contracts, I'd rather move BJ. But his contract makes it more difficult to move him. I think we probably have to move one of them to have a chance at extending both Heyward and Justin Upton.

Note that projected 2015 WAR from our corner infielders is about 1 WAR above 2014 actual because we got so little from third this year.

So between outfield and corner infield we are likely to improve by about 3 WAR. Lest anyone accuse me of being too optimistic, let me note that we will give up these projected improvements once we get to the projections for internal starting pitching options.

It occurs to me that Billy Hamilton is an interesting comp to Peraza. Both were infielders in the minors. Hamilton has an OPS of .662 so far in 2014. But the combination of strong defense and baserunning (56 stolen bases) has allowed him to put up a 3.5 WAR season. It makes me think that my projection of a 2 WAR season might be a tad conservative for Peraza. Hamilton did have the benefit of a full season in AAA in 2013.

[Enscheff]

I think it's pretty obvious that unless CJ is traded to clear cash for a new OFer he will be the starter, at least until Kubitza, Peraza or Goss push him out of the way. That will be fine as long as his exposure to RHers is somewhat limited and he is replaced defensively by Goss (who should be the primary utility IFer next year) late in games.

Having said that, a LHed option for 3B is something that needs to be acquired for the bench. Eric Chavez would have been ideal last offseason, but I don't know who would fit that bill this offseason. Maybe Bonifacio?

This leads into another point...pinch hitting for poor hitters. Guys like Simmons and CJ should be PH for much more liberally when the situation warrants. CJ should not ever be facing a RHed power reliever late in a game with men on base. He hits poorly against those types of pitchers, and he routinely kills those types of rallys by grounding into double plays. This is where the LHed option for 3B would be used, or even Terdo with Goss taking over defensively.

The point is CJ should not even be allowed to hit often enough with men on base to be leading the league in GIDPs.

[cajunrevenge]

I really like the idea of signing Headley. In a perfect world we could just keep CJ and use him as 1b/3b backup and pinch hitting but we can't afford to pay 6 million for that. Headley I am starting to think will get more than a 1 year deal. He is showing he can put up a good OBP and play gold glove defense and that's got a lot of value. I think he could get 4 years 50 million.

Headley is a great for for what we need. As a switch hitter with good OBP skills he would fit in the 2nd spot in the lineup. Together with Andrelton and Peraza would make an elite defensive infield. Hale could really thrive with that kind of defense behind him. Hursh is another extreme groundball pitcher that could do well with that defense.

[zitothebrave]

Does Pastor have the arm for 3B? And I think you're way too bullish on Kubitza. High K guy without power isn't good.

[zitothebrave]

I really like the idea of signing Headley. In a perfect world we could just keep CJ and use him as 1b/3b backup and pinch hitting but we can't afford to pay 6 million for that. Headley I am starting to think will get more than a 1 year deal. He is showing he can put up a good OBP and play gold glove defense and that's got a lot of value. I think he could get 4 years 50 million.

Headley is a great for for what we need. As a switch hitter with good OBP skills he would fit in the 2nd spot in the lineup. Together with Andrelton and Peraza would make an elite defensive infield. Hale could really thrive with that kind of defense behind him. Hursh is another extreme groundball pitcher that could do well with that defense.

Headley is what I want. Put him in the 5 spot

Jason
Justin
Freddie
Gattis
Headley
TLS
Simmons
P
Peraza (OF)

[cajunrevenge]

What would you offer Headley? His time with the yankees has really rejuvenated his stock.

[50PoundHead]

Johnson's contract is tradeable, but we don't have a ready replacement. Plus, I don't see us getting anything but a mid-level prospect for Johnson. It would be a player dump.

As I've said before, I don't think we will actually know much about Kubitza until he actually faces big league pitching on a regular basis. He's a big question mark to me. Could be decent, but I still think he projects as a utility guy. Curious to see if he plays winter ball and if he'll play other positions if he does.

Someone like Headley would be nice, but I don't know what his price would be.