2015 Expectations: Pitching

[nsacpi]

We have a challenge with the starting rotation. Medlen and Beachy are under contractual control but could be non-tendered given they are coming off their second TJ surgery. Harang and Santana will be free agents. Looking at healthy internal options, here is what we can expect from the starting pitching. WAR estimates are based upon the assumption of 30 or more starts.

Teheran: 3.5 FIP and 3.5 WAR in 2015

Wood: 3.1 FIP and 4.0 WAR

Minor: 3.7 FIP and 3.0 WAR

Hale: 4.0 FIP and 2.0 WAR

Martin: 4.3 FIP and 1.0 WAR

What I'm projecting for Hale and Martin does not come close to replacing what we're losing from Santana and Harang (who will finish the year with a combined 5.5 WAR). A full season in the rotation from Wood and a rebound from Minor would more than make up the difference, however. The problem with all this is you have to assume a significant injury or two to the rotation. We need to build enough depth to withstand that. And hopefully we do this without exhausting the budget the way we did with Santana this year. If we pick up a starting pitcher or two, we'll move Martin back to AAA and have some pretty good depth there with him, Hursh, Williams Perez, Schlosser, Northcraft and Thomas candidates for the rotation. The logical trade to me is to use Bethancourt to pick up some starting pitching. If we can move BJ's or CJ's contract in the process, all the better. This would allow us to potentially extend both Heyward and Justin Upton. If we have some money left over we can then consider going after a player like Aoki.

It is ironic to say this given how the pitching has performed compared to the hitters this year, but our biggest need going into 2015 is a starting pitcher or two.

As for the pen, I think we've gotten spoilt with the recent pens we've had. This year's results from the pen are more normal given that we like most other teams don't spend a lot of money on relievers. We have a solid core coming back and it could be a very strong group is Shae Simmons is healthy and pitches like he did early on. We don't really need to add there given that we will be able to choose from Kimbrel, Walden, Carpenter, Simmons, Varvaro, Russell, Avilan and Shreve (that's 8 already for 7 spots). And there are others like Jaime, Harper, Buchter, Hoyt in the system who could help down the line.

[cajunrevenge]

I think if Peavy makes it to the open market he will sign a 2-3 year deal with the Braves. The Giants have been known to throw big money around and they really like Peavy.

[VirginiaBrave]

Re-sign Floyd or Santana. Give 5th spot to best preforming candidate in ST and hope Meds can take it by late July-August.

[cajunrevenge]

How much is the max you would go for Santana? Floyd and Medlen are fighting long odds to ever be productive starters again.

[50PoundHead]

Tough decisions ahead. I don't see how we have a good staff without a significant free agent signing (at least a mid-level guy). I don't know what I'd pay Santana, but I wouldn't go over three years.

[nsacpi]

I would make the qualifying offer to Santana. It would be nice to pocket the draft pick. If he accepts the offer, it would probably put us close to our payroll limit. To get some flexibility we'd have to move someone with a significant salary.

[sturg33]

Speculation that the Reds could trade Cueto. He has a $10m option next year. I'd go get him

[nsacpi]

Speculation that the Reds could trade Cueto. He has a $10m option next year. I'd go get him

Care to speculate on what it would take to acquire him?

[UNCBlue012]

I'd love to see: Teheran, Wood, Minor, Santana, Floyd/Medlen?/Peavy. I love Gavin Floyd and what he gave us before he got hurt.

[rico43]

Care to speculate on what it would take to acquire him?

Almost certain would have to start with Peraza. They want to replace Phillips soon or at least dump his contrat.

[Enscheff]

A legit middle of the rotation starter is a requirement this offseason. Making a QO to Santana is a no-brainer, which he will certainly decline.

Then I want to see the Braves do something they haven't ever done in FA...play the game of musical chairs and wait for the bargain SP to fall in their lap late in the process. There always seems to be 1-2 starters towards the end of the offseason that didn't get the huge contract they were looking for, and that's the guy the Braves need to swoop in and sign for the rotation. Maybe that guy ends up being Santana for 3 years $40M.

[VirginiaBrave]

How much is the max you would go for Santana? Floyd and Medlen are fighting long odds to ever be productive starters again.

No higher than 3/60M, so 20 per. I wonder if he may take less than he might get on the market to stay. By all accounts he loves it and has thrived here.

[Julio3000]

If there's an affordable mid-tier guy available, great. Otherwise, we can shop the scrap heap with the best of 'em. SP depth is always important, but there are bigger issues this offseason.

[cajunrevenge]

No higher than 3/60M, so 20 per. I wonder if he may take less than he might get on the market to stay. By all accounts he loves it and has thrived here.

Wow that's more than i thought. I was thinking something like 4/64. I wonder if he still likes it hear after this brutal September.

[50PoundHead]

I don't go over three years for Santana. I'd say something like 3/$51 million would be my limit.

[KB21]

I'd rather have the draft pick than Santana. We are looking at a top 15 pick in the first round right now with our current pick. If we could get someone's first round pick for Santana, that would give use potentially two great prospects that would really boost the system.

[zitothebrave]

I wouldn't go above 14M a year for Santana. If he commands more than that let's go dumpsterdiving. Beachy, Medlen, and Floyd on incentive laden deals, Harang for like a 1/5. Between those 4 we should get 2 competent starters.