Trade with the Reds?

[Enscheff]

Looking through the available SPs the Braves may target this offseason, I came away with the following 3 free agents (MLBTR's predicted contract in parentheses):

Ervin Santana (3 yr, $36M-$45M)
Brandon McCarthy (3 yr, $36M)
Justin Masterson (1 yr, $12M, bounce back contract)

All three of these guys will not cost a draft pick (VERY important for the Braves this year since they are drafting pretty high), and are essentially the same pitcher (~4 FIP). These are the 3 FA targets I feel the Braves should prioritize to fill the middle of the rotation hole behind Teheran and Wood.

Then I read the Reds will likely trade one of Cueto, Latos, Leake or Simon. I'm not really interested in Simon, but Cueto, Latos and Leake are all intriguing on different levels (and cost to acquire).

The Reds are looking to upgrade in the OF (sorry, can't help them there), and at SS (hey...maybe!).

So what would you trade for Cueto, Latos or Leake? Would you consider expanding the deal to include a BJ for Phillips swap? Something like Latos/Phillips for BJ/Peraza?

[gilesfan]

I don't see why Cincy would trade Latos and Phillips to take on one prospect and **** ton of worthless salary in return.

Now, Simmons or Peraza plus prospects for Latos may get their attention.

[Enscheff]

I don't see why Cincy would trade Latos and Phillips to take on one prospect and **** ton of worthless salary in return.

Now, Simmons or Peraza plus prospects for Latos may get their attention.

I think both Peraza and Simmons are worth far more than 1 season of Latos. Phillips and his $39M remaining contract is worth more than BJ and his $46M remaining contract (or more accurately, Phillips deal is less crappy).

If the cost for Latos is Simmons or Peraza PLUS additional prospects I would definitely pass.

[holden]

I would like Brandon McCarthy, because he's pretty good on Twitter.

[yeezus]

I would like Brandon McCarthy, because he's pretty good on Twitter.

He's also a pretty good pitcher. Pitched really well with New York. I'd take him at 3/36.

[BRule]

Why would Cincy trade Cueto?

[DaneHill]

Didn't Santana pretty much burn his bridges with the Braves team? Don't see him coming back or wanting to come back.

[tomahawkchop10]

Didn't Santana pretty much burn his bridges with the Braves team? Don't see him coming back or wanting to come back.

?? Between starting a new job and the braves crapping their pants I didn't watch much in September, did I miss something?

[DaneHill]

Basically did a no-no by telling the press that the pitchers were doing everything they could, but the batters were stinking up the joint. Totally true, mind you. But I'm sure that didn't go down well with the others for him to call them out like that in the media. Plus, gave me the impression that the locker room was not a happy place for Santana. Just don't see him wanting to pitch again for this team now that he'll undoubtedly get good enough offers as a FA to go elsewhere.

[Heyward]

?? Between starting a new job and the braves crapping their pants I didn't watch much in September, did I miss something?

Yeah, same.

I doubt we re-sign him but i dont think its because of that if it is true, havent heard anything about it.

[Hudson2]

Cueto would be awesome but would cost a ton. Do we make Santana a QO?

[Julio3000]

Cueto is only signed for a year. Ditto Latos. That's why they're conceivably on the market. Given the circumstances, I don't see why we don't make a QO to Santana.

[Enscheff]

I think it is a no-brainer to offer Santana a QO. He is easily worth $12M-$14M for a single year, and a QO is only worth $15.3M this year.

If he declines the QO (every QO ever made has been declined) the Braves either get a draft pick, or they have added leverage since they are the only team that won't have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. As we saw last year, some of these fringe-stars' FA value is hurt dramatically with the loss of a draft pick hanging over their heads, so Santana would be more inclined to sign a reasonable contract with the Braves.

If he accepts the Braves only overpaid at most $1M-$2M for a single year of a pitcher that is at least as good as any other FA option they could realistically afford.

It seems well worth the risk to me.

[Heyward]

Why wouldnt they offer?

Need to get that draft pick back they lost, last season.

[JohnAdcox]

I think it is a no-brainer to offer Santana a QO. He is easily worth $12M-$14M for a single year, and a QO is only worth $15.3M this year.

If he declines the QO (every QO ever made has been declined) the Braves either get a draft pick, or they have added leverage since they are the only team that won't have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. As we saw last year, some of these fringe-stars' FA value is hurt dramatically with the loss of a draft pick hanging over their heads, so Santana would be more inclined to sign a reasonable contract with the Braves.

If he accepts the Braves only overpaid at most $1M-$2M for a single year of a pitcher that is at least as good as any other FA option they could realistically afford.

It seems well worth the risk to me.

Concisely and eloquently argued. Excellent post.