MLB Trade Rumors Offseason Outlook For The Braves

[CrimsonCowboy]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/1...-braves-5.html

[Dalyn]

Would love to see Martin get a shot at the #5 slot, but only if we trade for/sign a #2 (at least).

[cajunrevenge]

I like Martin too. I would be fine going into spring training with Hale/Martin/cheap veteran starter ala Garcia and Harang. They projected Santana for a 4 year 56 million contract which I think is very reasonable.

one thing I really would like to see the Braves do this offseason is back load some contracts to help us win now while we have Upton and Heywood. If Santana, Upton, and Heywood all leave for more money then they could go thru a rebuilding year in 2016 with the goal of being contenders when they open the new stadium. If all 3 leave that's also going to be 3 extra first round picks over 2 years. I like that idea more now that the scouting band is back together. 5 first round picks along with the extra bonus pool money we could get back to being a top 5 farm system every year in a hurry.

[50PoundHead]

It's not a pretty picture (at least to me). Big winter ahead. I'm seeing a surprise move or two. We're kind of stuck in that we can't go into full re-build mode because there's not a lot in the upper minors to re-build with. You could move Justin Upton (which something tells me might happen and which I am certainly not advocating) for a ton of prospects a couple of whom are major league ready.

We are in this odd place where the offense is iffy (at best), but our biggest question mark over the winter is the starting pitching. It's certainly not a comfortable place to be.

[zitothebrave]

I like that idea more now that the scouting band is back together. 5 first round picks along with the extra bonus pool money we could get back to being a top 5 farm system every year in a hurry.

The same scouting band who drafted amazing first rounders like Cody Johnson, Steve Evarts, Beau Jones, Luis Atilano.

Going all the way back to 2000, the Braves have had 3 very successful first rounders, Heyward, Waino and KJ. Waino and KJ were both from the 2000 draft, KJ and Salty are the only supplemental picks to have done anything of notice.

The myth that the Braves drafts were amazeballs before Wren is just that a myth. Even if they were better at getting players that rated better as prospects and we then utilitzed them in trades (Salty, Meyer, Gilmore, Jones) that's fine, but actual major league impact helps as well. Where we succeeded under the old guard was in international and in draft and follows, the former is much more restricted and congested with other teams with deeper pockets, the latter doesn't exist anymore. Maybe there's a new loophole the old guys can exploit, I'm not sure, but I haven't noticed amazing drafts from the Nationals under clark, I mean their first 3 drafts produced 3 high pick studs in Strasburg, Harper and Rendon, but I don't see us picking 6 or 1 very often. Nats were a solid team, but hardly spectacular under Clark. I think we'll be better, but I don't think it's fair to Wren to chastise his drafts. With the exception of LIpka, early returns on his 1s were good. Gilmartin we utilized to amke a trade, Minor is very good, SIms looks to be very good, Hursh looks to be very good, and Davidson is a longer shot as a HS position player but we'll see how he pans out.

[KB21]

The same scouting band who drafted amazing first rounders like Cody Johnson, Steve Evarts, Beau Jones, Luis Atilano.

Going all the way back to 2000, the Braves have had 3 very successful first rounders, Heyward, Waino and KJ. Waino and KJ were both from the 2000 draft, KJ and Salty are the only supplemental picks to have done anything of notice.

The myth that the Braves drafts were amazeballs before Wren is just that a myth. Even if they were better at getting players that rated better as prospects and we then utilitzed them in trades (Salty, Meyer, Gilmore, Jones) that's fine, but actual major league impact helps as well. Where we succeeded under the old guard was in international and in draft and follows, the former is much more restricted and congested with other teams with deeper pockets, the latter doesn't exist anymore. Maybe there's a new loophole the old guys can exploit, I'm not sure, but I haven't noticed amazing drafts from the Nationals under clark, I mean their first 3 drafts produced 3 high pick studs in Strasburg, Harper and Rendon, but I don't see us picking 6 or 1 very often. Nats were a solid team, but hardly spectacular under Clark. I think we'll be better, but I don't think it's fair to Wren to chastise his drafts. With the exception of LIpka, early returns on his 1s were good. Gilmartin we utilized to amke a trade, Minor is very good, SIms looks to be very good, Hursh looks to be very good, and Davidson is a longer shot as a HS position player but we'll see how he pans out.

Give me a break. The Braves drafts under Roy Clark were FAR BETTER than any draft Frank Wren has had. There is a reason the Braves routinely had a top farm system under Roy Clark, and there is a reason that has declined under Frank Wren. Roy Clark drafted high upside players. Tony DeMacio drafted players that will top out in AAA. Since Wren has been the GM, the Braves have drafted too many college players (college seniors at that) and not enough high school players. Hopefully, now that Roy is back, the Braves will get back to their philosophy of drafting high upside high school players.

[KB21]

It's not a pretty picture (at least to me). Big winter ahead. I'm seeing a surprise move or two. We're kind of stuck in that we can't go into full re-build mode because there's not a lot in the upper minors to re-build with. You could move Justin Upton (which something tells me might happen and which I am certainly not advocating) for a ton of prospects a couple of whom are major league ready.

We are in this odd place where the offense is iffy (at best), but our biggest question mark over the winter is the starting pitching. It's certainly not a comfortable place to be.

I'd move Upton before I moved Heyward. There have been some things come out after Wren's dismissal that suggest Heyward may be willing to sign a long term deal now that Frank is gone. I also think Heyward's base running and defense gives him more overall value than Upton's hot and cold hitting. I'd trade Upton to Boston for a package centered around Mookie Betts.

[keithlaw]

It's not a pretty picture (at least to me). Big winter ahead. I'm seeing a surprise move or two. We're kind of stuck in that we can't go into full re-build mode because there's not a lot in the upper minors to re-build with. You could move Justin Upton (which something tells me might happen and which I am certainly not advocating) for a ton of prospects a couple of whom are major league ready.

We are in this odd place where the offense is iffy (at best), but our biggest question mark over the winter is the starting pitching. It's certainly not a comfortable place to be.

It's how I see it too. We aren't bad enough to tear it down and start over, but we aren't good enough and don't have the assets (money and prospects) to put together a reliable contender. I think the best we can hope for is to dump some of the bad salaries and hope the young guys can play over their heads.

[BRule]

Cody Johnson LOL

[50PoundHead]

z, your post is rife with inconsistency. I am not going to go back and try to find my earlier post that detailed the level of major league production (either for the Braves or the teams to whom the Braves traded the player) of the guys taken under Clark. There is virtually no comparison. The only possible salvation for Wren here is that there are still a few guys (very few in my opinion) in the Braves' pipeline who may develop into something. Your pointing out of Sims (and the estimation of Sims in the eyes of other organizations is quite high) along with the presence of Peraza and Albies (international signings) are the strongest elements in the system right now. I liked this last draft more than I had the last few DeMacio put together, but overall (and it's probably not all DeMacio's fault) the post-Clark drafts have been pretty thin both in ceiling and predictable production. On the risk/reward scale, the high-risk guys have provided no reward and the ceilings on the low-risk guys have been very low. Again, there are notable exceptions in Minor and Sims. Kimbrel falls into a gray area because while Wren was GM when Kimbrel was drafted, Clark was still running the draft. I'm not sure on Hursh. The Braves have become overly aggressive in my opinion on "pushing" guys and Hursh may not have been ready for AA. He didn't miss a lot of bats and his K/BB is < 2.0. Not a recipe for success, but again, I would have started him in Lynchburg. Your point on the draft-and-follow is pertinent, but the Braves weren't the only team that harvested from that strategy and I think in retrospect, that wasn't the huge payday for the Braves that some make it out to be.

So go back and look at all the drafts under Clark and you'll see names (in addition to the ones you mentioned) like Adam LaRoche (and for all the accolades DeMacio gets for picking Gattis post-20th round, you have to give Clark similar kudos for drafting LaRoche in the 29th round), Zach Miner (trade chip), Kyle Davies, Brian McCann, Chuck James, Charlie Morton (trade chip), Jeff Locke (trade chip), Jonny Venters, Matt Harrison, Cory Rasmus (trade chip), Kris Medlen, Tyler Flowers (trade chip), Yunel Escobar, Zeke Spruill (trade chip), Brett Oberholtzer (trade chip), J.J. Hoover (trade chip), Paul Clemens (trade chip), and Freddie Freeman (who you somehow ignored completely in your post). And for all the ripping on Francoeur, the guy did somehow manage to amass around 5,000 major league plate appearances with about 40% of them taking place outside of Atlanta. He was a disappointment for sure, but it's not like the guy was a total toad. And, Beau Jones equals Gilmartin in that they both were decent trade chips. Drafts don't end at the first round and if you look top-to-bottom on the Clark drafts vs. the DeMacio drafts, there really is no comparison at this point. Things still have to play out and we'll see how the DeMacio guys in the system develop. The comparison could tighten up, but I don't think it will tighten up considerably (but I'm only an amateur viewer so what do I know).

And it's not just the draft. I came across this quote from Clark taken from an interview over at Perfect Game from 2005 which pretty much sums up the "Braves' Way" and how we have strayed from it (sadly so in the eyes of posters like KB21 and myself). The player development system appears to be in disarray. Finding talent and developing talent are two different steps in the same basic process and I think both are suffering. Anyway, here's the quote (my apologies to Perfect Game if this is protected content, which I don't believe it is because it came up on a search):

Roy Clark: One of the things that make us successful is continuity. We've had the same game plan that was originally started by Stan Kasten, Bobby Cox and Paul Snyder and implemented by John Schuerholz, Dayton Moore and our staff. We like to raise our own kids. We draft mostly high school kids and we have one of the finest, if not the finest, player development programs and coaching staffs and we teach our players the right way to play. We also have a game plan in scouting, and there are certain types of players that we look for. We're looking for high ceiling guys with championship type makeup, on and off the field. So there are standards we set in our organization and we try not to lower those standards. As a scouting department, with the confidence we have in our player development, if a guy has the potential that we think they have and the makeup and they stay healthy, we think they will be a productive Major Leaguer. We take a lot of pride in that (I imagine some will absolutely blanch at Clark's reference to make-up, but take it for what it is worth.)

The draft has changed a lot since this interview and the strategy by all the big league clubs has likewise changed to adjust to the new realities, but it still boils down to talent, both projectable and applicable, and our system is lacking--especially above the rookie leagues--in both of those elements right now. Combine that with what appears to be inconsistent and/or ineffective coaching in our minor league system and it is readily apparent that there is a real and identifiable problem.

Where I will give Clark and his successors a break is that the ownership change unwisely put the brakes on spending both domestically and internationally for player acquisition and that has shown. Clark really wanted to sign Rendon as a late-summer follow when the Braves drafted him in the 27th round in 2008, but couldn't get the money to do so. I don't know if that was ownership or Wren or a combination of both.

So yeah, if you isolate the variables enough, I suppose the Wren/DeMacio drafts can be made to look disappointing instead of disastrous. But that is only part of the story and you have to know that. Further, I think you have to look at the drafts for which Wren and DeMacio are solely responsible. Clark and Wren worked together for two drafts (2008 and 2009).

Here's the link to the entire interview with Roy Clark from January, 2005: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/...x?article=1213

[Heyward]

The Cueto/Heyward thing is interesting, we'd have to get back more and have Cueto sign long-term, maybe a 3-team deal.

But thats something i'd consider if Heyward wont re-sign.

[Bravesfan205]

This team had arguably the worst offense in baseball last year and overall pitching in the top 5 of baseball. Yet this article only talks about how we need pitching. We are hurting bad for offensively capable players. If we trade one of Heyward or Upton for pitching it doesn't really matter because we will never score enough to win.

[Heyward]

This team had arguably the worst offense in baseball last year and overall pitching in the top 5 of baseball. Yet this article only talks about how we need pitching. We are hurting bad for offensively capable players. If we trade one of Heyward or Upton for pitching it doesn't really matter because we will never score enough to win.

Unless we can re-sign both, it makes sense to deal one, sign the other.

Not like we're winning the WS next year or even making the playoffs for that matter.

[zitothebrave]

50 I'm not gonna reply to your post point by point.

The poitn was imagine the damage we coudl do with 3 first round picks under Clark. I was discussing first round picks under Clark.

Again, the Braves way resulted in our horrible system depth in the last 2000s, that lead to Wren's low ceiling depth picks because you need guys who can play the bench, pitch from the pen, be emergency starters, and we didn't have that cause of Clark's HS draft players that were busting out before upper levels.

Honestly I think we're fine either way. Wren and Demacio had to replenish depth first then go on talent. And you have to remember we have a totally different system than we did in the past because we can't draft the same people like we did.

[50PoundHead]

But z, the whole point is that taking low-ceiling depth picks is a strategy for losing. I'm not advocating going back to the Chuck Lamar approach of drafting football players and going all tools over predictable production, but DeMacio really did poorly with both of those approaches. Sure the Teixeira trade hurt as did the budget cuts, but the Wren/DeMacio team hasn't improved the situation they inherited and frankly, after the Teixeira trade, it shouldn't have been that difficult.

Just because you graduate a bunch of guys doesn't mean you quit drafting.

To KB21's point, if you can get someone to be greedy on Upton (I'm looking at you Red Sox) and we can get two or three prospects (think something like Owens, Betts, Cecchini or something like that), you may have to consider it.

To Bravesfan205, over 400 innings of starting pitching will enter free agency and we really don't have anything to replace them internally.

[Enscheff]

That article went over almost every point I made in the "If I were Braves GM" thread, so obviously I agree with almost all of it.

If the Braves are stuck signing a starter like Ryan Vogelsong, Colby Lewis, or Kyle Kendrick, I will be pretty disappointed. If options like Santana, McCarthy and Masterson end up being too expensive, I think I would rather just see Harang back on the mound for 2 years.

The article only mentions bringing in a corner OFer like Aoki or Rios if Upton or Heyward are traded, but I think a player like that should be brought in regardless with Heyward moved to CF. There is simply no way the Braves can go into the 2015 season with BJ penciled in as the starter in CF.

There is talk of trading Gattis in the article, but unless the return is another player with 2+ years of control at a position of need, I just don't see the point in giving the job to CB next year. CB is just another .300 OBP hole in the lineup, and isn't that impressive defensively.

I do agree that the IF will likely be completely filled with internal options, and I think there is enough talent in place to do so. While I would like to see Valbuena brought in to platoon at 3B, I understand that may not be in the cards unless CJ is unloaded.