Roy Clark's Drafts: A Look at the 2003-2009 Period

[nsacpi]

The 2003-2007 period can be looked at as the last five years of the pure Roy Clark draft era. The 2008-2009 drafts can be regarded as a transition period when Clark was still running the draft but Wren was the GM.

Here is a broad overview:

2003: We had no first round pick, but 2 supplemental first rounders (Altilano and Saltalamacchia), 2 second rounders (Reyes and Bacot), 2 third rounders (Stevens and Harrison). We drafted and signed 13 high school players (9 pitchers). Major league players yielded (Atilano, Saltalamacchia, Reyes, Harrison, Sean White, Brandon Jones, Venters). I'd rate this as an above average draft, taking into account the picks we had.

2004: No first round pick. 2nd and 3rd rounders were Campbell and Holt. We drafted and signed 11 high school players (6 pitchers). Major leaguers yielded: Parr and Sammons. A very poor draft even considering we didn't have a first round pick.

2005: Early picks were Devine (1st round), Beau Jones (supplemental first round), Escobar and Lyman in the second round and Schafer in round 3. We drafted and signed 10 HS players (5 pitchers). Major leaguers yielded: Devine, Escobar, Schafer, Chapman, Hanson, Flowers. I'd also rate this draft as above average.

2006: Cody Johnson was the first round pick, Rasmus and Evarts in the supplemental first round, Locke, Evans and Fontaine in round 2, and Rogers in round 3. We signed 9 HS players from this draft (7 pitchers). Major leaguers yielded: Rasmus, Locke, Medlen, Heath. A poor draft considering all the early round picks.

2007: Heyward in round 1, Gilmore in the supplemental first round, Freeman and Hicks in rounds 2 and 3. We signed only 5 high schoolers from that draft (1 pitcher). Major leaguers yielded: Heyward, Freeman, Hicks, Gearrin. We picked relatively early that year (#14 in the first round). The major league yield in terms of numbers is slightly below average but this has to be considered a strong draft given the productivity of Heyward and Freeman.

So of the last five pure Roy Clark drafts, 3 were strong and 2 were weak. Overall I'd say slightly above average. Clark took lots of HS pitchers (except for 2007) in those years, and the yield from this group was decent (7 out of 28 HS pitchers signed made the majors).

Let's now look at the hybrid Wren/Clark years.

2008: No first round pick. DeVall in the supplemental first round, Stovall and Spruill in round 2, Kimbrel in round 3. We signed 4 HS players from that draft (3 pitchers). Major leaguers yielded: Spruill, Kimbrel, Clemens, Oberholtzer, Hoover, Beachy (NDFA). An above average draft, especially considering we did not have a first round pick.

2009: Minor in round 1 (#7 overall), no second round pick, Hale in round 3. We signed only 2 HS players from that draft, both pitchers. Major leaguers yielded so far: Minor and Hale. Others who still have a chance to make it: Northcraft, Hefflinger, Ryan Weber and Mycal Jones. A slightly below average draft taking into account the small number of early round picks.

I'll take a look at the drafts since Clark left later. But it is striking that the trend toward fewer HS picks was already in place before his departure.

[nsacpi]

What about the post-Clark drafts. Here is a summary:

2010: No first pick. Lipka in the supplemental first round. Cunningham and Simmons in the second. Leonard in the third. Only four high school players were drafted and signed, one of them a pitcher. The major league yield so far: Cunningham, Simmons, Gosselin, Terdoslavich, Shreve, Gattis. Others with a chance: Drury, Lipka, Leonard. Considering the lack of a first round pick, imo this is our best draft in the past dozen years. I like to see a mix of college and HS players selected, but sometimes you can have success with a college heavy approach.

2011: Gilmartin in round 1, Ahmed in round 2, Kubitza in round 3. We signed only 3 HS players from this draft, none of them pitchers. Major leaguers so far from this draft: Ahmed, La Stella, Schlosser. Others with a chance: Kubitza, Graham, Martin, Cornely, Harper, Livesay. I think this will most likely end up being a below average draft. But there is still some upside from guys like La Stella, Kubitza and Martin.

2012: Sims in round 1, Wood in round 2, de la Rosa in round 3. We signed 5 HS players from this draft, but Sims was the only one who was a pitcher. Major leaguers so far: Wood, Shae Simmons. Others with a chance: Sims, Lien, Hyatt, Tewell. I think this will turn out to be an above average draft.

2013: No #1 pick (thanks Melvin), Hursh early in the supplemental round (#31 overall), Caratini in round 2, Salazar in round 3. Best of the rest: Grosser, Wren, Murphy, Oliver. We signed 6 HS players in this draft (3 pitchers). It is early days, but I expect this to end up being a below average draft.

2014: No #1 pick (Ervin Santana), Davidson early in the supplemental round (#32 overall), Fulenchek in round 2, Povse in round 3. We signed just 3 HS players (1 pitcher). Very early, but I like his draft better than the 2013 draft. I think it will end up being above average.

Overall verdict: 3 good drafts, 2 poor ones. Similar to Roy Clark's 2003-2007 drafts in overall quality, taking into account where we were drafting. But very different in terms of college-high school player mix.

[JohnAdcox]

Hey, thanks for posting this. This is great work, and much, much appreciated.

[50PoundHead]

Good work, although I think you've greatly overestimated the strength of DeMacio's drafts, especially 2010. Gattis and Simmons are keepers, but I doubt anyone else on that list is going to get 2,000 PAs in the big leagues (I use 2,000 PAs as the rough equivalent of 4 seasons of big league action). One place where we differ in the analysis of drafts is that I value longevity of the contributors at the major league level as compared to just getting to the major leagues (which you seem to do). I think the staying power of Clark's drafts is going to be much stronger than those of DeMacio's. Clark's "strongs" were stronger than DeMacio's "strongs" and his "weaks" not as "weak."

Plus, you've conveniently left out Clark's 2000 through 2002 drafts that produced Wainwright, Kelly Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Francoeur, McCann, Dan Meyer, Charlie Morton, Chuck James, Blaine Boyer, and Zach Miner.

I don't think Roy Clark walks on water and drafting is only part of what is wrong in my estimation. We need to re-tool the minor league instructional team. You draft on both projection and production, but there's a ton to learn on the path to the majors and we have to clean that up as well.

But good information nonetheless.

[nsacpi]

Good work, although I think you've greatly overestimated the strength of DeMacio's drafts, especially 2010. Gattis and Simmons are keepers, but I doubt anyone else on that list is going to get 2,000 PAs in the big leagues (I use 2,000 PAs as the rough equivalent of 4 seasons of big league action). One place where we differ in the analysis of drafts is that I value longevity of the contributors at the major league level as compared to just getting to the major leagues (which you seem to do). I think the staying power of Clark's drafts is going to be much stronger than those of DeMacio's. Clark's "strongs" were stronger than DeMacio's "strongs" and his "weaks" not as "weak."

For me the key period is the first six years in the majors when a player is under contractual control at a below-market salary. It is interesting to compare 2007 and 2010. Heyward and Freeman arrived in the majors at a younger age than Gattis and also Simmons. So yes they are quite likely to have significantly better career numbers. But if you narrow the lens to those first six years, the expected gap is not as large.

The other thing that has to be done is to control for when we were drafting. Our first two picks in 2007 were #17 and #31 overall. Our first two picks in 2010 were #35 and #57 overall. That is a significant difference. Taking all that into account I find the 2010 draft (Gattis, Simmons, Cunningham, Terdoslavich, Gosselin, Shreve, Drury) more impressive than 2007 (Heyward, Freeman, Hicks, Gearrin).

As for Clark's weaks not being as weak, imo 2004 was our worst draft in recent memory even allowing for the lack of a first round pick. The only two guys who made the majors (Parr and Sammons) were scrubs.

[nsacpi]

Taking the # of early picks and their position into account is quite important. In 2003-2007 we drafted and signed 23 players in the first three rounds. In 2010-2014, only 16 were taken in the first three rounds.

If we go back to the 2000-2002 drafts here are the early picks and some notable late ones. We had a lot of early picks in those years. Two of those drafts were strong. The third one was quite poor, especially considering where we were picking.

2000: Wainwright and Thorman in round 1, Johnson and Herr in the supplemental first round, Nelson and Digby in round 2, Boyer in round 3. LaRoche in the 29th round was a notable late pick. I'd say this was a very strong draft. But was it better than 2010 when you consider the positioning of the picks? Our first five picks that year were #29, #30, #38, #40 and #51. Our first two picks in 2010 were #35 and #53. Think about that.

2001: McBride and Burrus in round 1, Lewis in the supplemental first round, Barthel and Stern in the second and third rounds. This was a poor draft.

2002: Francoeur in round 1, Meyer in the supplemental first round, McCann in the second, Morton in the 3rd, James in round 20. A strong draft imo.

[gilesfan]

What about the post-Clark drafts. Here is a summary:

2010: No first pick. Lipka in the supplemental first round. Cunningham and Simmons in the second. Leonard in the third. Only four high school players were drafted and signed, one of them a pitcher. The major league yield so far: Cunningham, Simmons, Gosselin, Terdoslavich, Shreve, Gattis. Others with a chance: Drury, Lipka, Leonard. Considering the lack of a first round pick, imo this is our best draft in the past dozen years. I like to see a mix of college and HS players selected, but sometimes you can have success with a college heavy approach.

2011: Gilmartin in round 1, Ahmed in round 2, Kubitza in round 3. We signed only 3 HS players from this draft, none of them pitchers. Major leaguers so far from this draft: Ahmed, La Stella, Schlosser. Others with a chance: Kubitza, Graham, Martin, Cornely, Harper, Livesay. I think this will most likely end up being a below average draft. But there is still some upside from guys like La Stella, Kubitza and Martin.

2012: Sims in round 1, Wood in round 2, de la Rosa in round 3. We signed 5 HS players from this draft, but Sims was the only one who was a pitcher. Major leaguers so far: Wood, Shae Simmons. Others with a chance: Sims, Lien, Hyatt, Tewell. I think this will turn out to be an above average draft.

2013: No #1 pick (thanks Melvin), Hursh early in the supplemental round (#31 overall), Caratini in round 2, Salazar in round 3. Best of the rest: Grosser, Wren, Murphy, Oliver. We signed 6 HS players in this draft (3 pitchers). It is early days, but I expect this to end up being a below average draft.

2014: No #1 pick (Ervin Santana), Davidson early in the supplemental round (#32 overall), Fulenchek in round 2, Povse in round 3. We signed just 3 HS players (1 pitcher). Very early, but I like his draft better than the 2013 draft. I think it will end up being above average.

Overall verdict: 3 good drafts, 2 poor ones. Similar to Roy Clark's 2003-2007 drafts in overall quality, taking into account where we were drafting. But very different in terms of college-high school player mix.

I just threw up a little. Similar in quality? Go home, you drunk.

[50PoundHead]

I'll grant that 2001 and 2004 were very bad drafts for Clark.

The one thing I worry about with Clark is that he will go too Georgia-centric again with his picks. I just want him to draft good players whether they are from Georgia, Texas, Kansas, California, or Mars.

[MadduxFanII]

Clint Sammons. Man, that brings back memories.

[nsacpi]

I'll grant that 2001 and 2004 were very bad drafts for Clark.

The one thing I worry about with Clark is that he will go too Georgia-centric again with his picks. I just want him to draft good players whether they are from Georgia, Texas, Kansas, California, or Mars.

Yeah. I couldn't care less where they're from or whether they be HS or college players. It does stand to reason that there should be some sort of balance between HS and college, pitchers versus hitters, though some years will be skewed in a particular direction. And I'm not in disagreement with your point that in the past five years we've taken too few high risk/high ceiling players. There are hints from guys like Drury, Lien, Northcraft that drafting a few more HS players in the lower rounds might be a good idea.

[nsacpi]

Clint Sammons. Man, that brings back memories.

68 major league at bats. Nothing to sneeze at.

[50PoundHead]

Yeah. I couldn't care less where they're from or whether they be HS or college players. It does stand to reason that there should be some sort of balance between HS and college, pitchers versus hitters, though some years will be skewed in a particular direction. And I'm not in disagreement with your point that in the past five years we've taken too few high risk/high ceiling players. There are hints from guys like Drury, Lien, Northcraft that drafting a few more HS players in the lower rounds might be a good idea.

I think the risk/reward thing has to be balanced. I thought they drafted Justin Black way too high, especially seeing that he came from a state with a very short season. I think with the new rules, drafting some high risk/high reward guys after the tenth around and saving enough to throw out bonuses that will land a few of that type is a good strategy. One problem I saw with DeMacio's approach is that he drafted seeming longshots like Stiffler before the tenth round and then proceeded to sign him to a deal right around the slot value. He did save considerably with draft picks like Dodig, Starn, and Tellor though. Of the Black, Lien, Sanchez triumverate of tools-centric guys, Lien appears to have the best shot, especially if his power shows up.

[Carp]

When drafts netted way too many AAAA players.

Clark may not have as many major league players, but the ones that do make tend to be quality major leaguers.

For that reason, I don't see how 05 or 07 weren't our best drafts. The quality of the players that made the majors was tremendous.

[nsacpi]

If Lien and Drury pan out, it would provide some evidence that we should have drafted more players like that in the later rounds. You have to look at the yield relative to the number of players with a particular profile taken over particular rounds of the draft.

[50PoundHead]

If Lien and Drury pan out, it would provide some evidence that we should have drafted more players like that in the later rounds. You have to look at the yield relative to the number of players with a particular profile taken over particular rounds of the draft.

I would say a decent comparison here is Drury and Justin Black. Both are guys from northern states with iffy levels of high school baseball prospects because of the short season and the lack of numbers. Drury was drafted in the 13th round. Justin Black was drafted in the 4th round. Now the scouting reports on Black's tools were glowing, but he simply hadn't played a lot of baseball so I think a case can be made that drafting him that high was questionable. Of course, he had a college commitment in his hands so if the Braves (or anyone else) wanted him badly enough, they were going to have to draft him at a slot that would sway him.

Should be interesting to see how it works out for Drury. He is slated to go on the D-Backs 40-man this off-season. He's been consistently "young for league" since signing, so that's working for him.

[nsacpi]

Btw Drury was 17 when drafted and Black 19 even though both were drafted out of high school. Another interesting discussion for another thread.

I do think when drafting that in the early rounds you want to go more HS and in later rounds more college, though you want to be flexible throughout.

To me a really interesting phase is rounds 4-10. Only a fifth to a quarter of players in those rounds make it. But it isn't quite like picking names out of a hat like it is in later rounds. The Braves have really gone college heavy in those rounds. Since 2007, they have signed 44 college players (22 pitchers) from those rounds and only 8 HS players (2 pitchers). But it looks like a higher percentage of the HS players picked in those rounds are going to make the majors. To me that says we have not gotten the balance right during that portion of the draft. And this applies to both the Wren era and the latter part of the Clark era.

[Metaphysicist]

As of now, DeMacio's 2010-2012 drafts have produced 3 players that I would consider to have "made it": Gattis, Simmons, and Wood. More could get there eventually, but I'm not gonna make any assumptions. There's no reason to talk about 2013-2014 at all, since its way to soon. So that's three MLB caliber dudes in 3 years.

Now churning out even a single MLB regular per draft year is perfectly cromulent, so at the end of the day, those draft's were successful. But all three of those guys had big red flags on them, which let them fall to us; and, frankly we got lucky that ANY of them worked out. At the same time, none of the non-"flagged" players we drafted those years has really panned out so far. This is not a good strategy for long-term success, so what we have is a situation where the results are good, but they don't inspire long-term confidence.

Clark didn't always hit on his guys, but he certainly made much better use of his "non-risky" picks.

[zitothebrave]

The contention 50 and I have had is essentially over what the early DeMacio drafts were about, which was restocking the depleted upper minors. Some bad drafts from the years before and lots of major league graduates had us with terrible positional depth in AA and AAA. The early drafts have largely handled that.

As far as the the risk picks, what MLB pitching prospect isn't a risk?

It's safe to say that with 2 MLB starters and very good ones at that, 3 Major League benh players, and a solid looking reliever, not to mention one of the pieces used to get Justin Upton (though probably one of the smaller pieces) that 2010 was a great yield for the Braves. If you have a draft that produces 2 MLB starters and some role players that more than did it's job.

2011 I'd also say was fairly successful overall. 2 guys we used in trades, Gilmartin netted us Doumit (which didn't pan out) and Ahmed was the 3rd biggest piece in the Upton trade. TLS is in the majors so he made the jump to a successful pick, and if Graham didn't get hit with the oh **** shoulder injury bug, he would have been a legit pitching prospect.

2012 is still too early to feel the full effects. 3 of our top 4 picks were HS kids. So it's hard to say where De La Rosa and Black wind up, though their early minor league returns aren't great and they probably won't amount to much of anything. Sims is a pitchign prospect so there's risk there but on ability, he should be more than worth his pick.

[nsacpi]

More of the hits from the wren drafts came from picks outside the top 3 rounds and more of clarks hits came from the top 3 rounds. The explanation is simple. Clark had a lot more early picks to work with. I wouldnt spin that as an argument in his favor.