Braves in on Yasmany Tomas

[Carp]

Because a 3.75 FIP today is the same as for someone who pitched through the steroid era. And Hudson is one of the few players who generally out performs their FIP. So yeah. Good comparison.

And how do we know that Miller can't consistently outpitch his FIP? He's done it both his 1st two yrs in the league by more than .50 each yr. That's starting to become a trend, rather than an outlier.

Hudson is one of the few players.... I think you mean he's a successful ground ball pitcher. Cause pretty much any successful ground ball pitcher outpitches his FIP consistently. And the fact if the matter is, Miller is extremely talented. There is no reason to suggest he can't consistently outpitch his FIP over his career.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Mark Bowman @mlbbowman · 5m 5 minutes ago
While in the D.R., the #Braves will meet with Yasmany Tomas.

Mark Bowman @mlbbowman · 5m 5 minutes ago
Members of the #Braves front office are in the Dominican Republic this week to evaluate whether to move or upgrade their academy.

[yeezus]

And how do we know that Miller can't consistently outpitch his FIP? He's done it both his 1st two yrs in the league.

Hudson is one of the few players.... I think you mean he's a successful ground ball pitcher. Cause pretty much any successful ground ball pitcher outpitches his FIP consistently. And the fact if the matter is, Miller is extremely talented. There is no reason to suggest he can't consistently outpitch his FIP over his career.

NO ONE is saying he cannot do something. It LIKELY he will not continue to outpitch his FIP by such a wide margin. What is so difficult to understand about that point? He has to make improvements otherwise he will likely be a ~4.00 ERA pitcher. Which has some value. But he's not currently a TOR pitcher and I have no idea how someone can argue otherwise. Who are other guys you people consider to be TOR? I consider that a pretty damn good class, and to say he's in it right now is a joke.

[Metaphysicist]

I'm referring to the 2nd half when people have said he turned the corner. Outside of a 200 BABIP nothing changed. He still had a 4+ FIP while having an era around 3. Yes pithers can outpitch their FIP. But it's not by a whole run consistantly.

I think people are just getting confused. The story on Miller isn't the whole second half; it's the last half dozen starts or so. He made an adjustment at the end of the year, and his peripherals in his last month were much better. I mean, here were his K/BB rates by month:

April: 1.24
May: 1.82
June: 1.41
Jul: 1.83
Aug: 1.54
Sept: 5.20

That's a huge change, though it wasn't for half the year. It's a small sample size, but it is an encouraging development.

[Metaphysicist]

And how do we know that Miller can't consistently outpitch his FIP? He's done it both his 1st two yrs in the league by more than .50 each yr. That's starting to become a trend, rather than an outlier.

Hudson is one of the few players.... I think you mean he's a successful ground ball pitcher. Cause pretty much any successful ground ball pitcher outpitches his FIP consistently. And the fact if the matter is, Miller is extremely talented. There is no reason to suggest he can't consistently outpitch his FIP over his career.

(A) Miller is a flyball pitcher. So if you were correct, this would make him not comparable to Hudson.

(B) It is not true that good groundballers usually beat their FIP. Here's the top GB dudes of the 2000s: (link) You'll note that among the top 5, Hudson was the only one who beat his FIP, whereas notorious GB machines Cook and Lowe had ERAs way above their FIPs.

[Carp]

Your link was wrong, as it only dates back to 2010, not 2000. But it wasn't hard to adjust the dates.

Regardless, I did not mean pitchers who are simply good at getting ground balls. Obviously I am not considering Jimmy Anderson a good pitcher just because he induces a lot of ground ball outs.

Rather, I was referring to good pitchers who are/were considered ground ball pitchers.

Pitchers such as:

Brandon Webb
Matt Cain
Jair Jurrjens
Mark Buehrle
Chris Carpenter
Doug Fister


I will give you Derek Lowe. He was definitely a very good ground ball pitcher who did not outpitch his FIP consistently.

Also I wouldn't say I was necessarily comparing Hudson and Miller. Just pointing out the fallacy of saying you must maintain X amount of FIP in order to be a TOR pitcher.

[Metaphysicist]

Your link was wrong, as it only dates back to 2010, not 2000. But it wasn't hard to adjust the dates.

Regardless, I did not mean pitchers who are simply good at getting ground balls. Obviously I am not considering Jimmy Anderson a good pitcher just because he induces a lot of ground ball outs.

Rather, I was referring to good pitchers who are/were considered ground ball pitchers.

Pitchers such as:

Brandon Webb
Matt Cain
Jair Jurrjens
Mark Buehrle
Chris Carpenter
Doug Fister


I will give you Derek Lowe. He was definitely a very good ground ball pitcher who did not outpitch his FIP consistently.

Also I wouldn't say I was necessarily comparing Hudson and Miller. Just pointing out the fallacy of saying you must maintain X amount of FIP in order to be a TOR pitcher.

Hm... yeah, I messed up the chart, but the point stands. Here is the corrected chart, with performance data: (link) You can still clearly see there is no strong correlation even if you exclude the terrible Jimmy Andersons.

As for your list, it makes no sense (league average GB% = ~44%):

Brandon Webb - Yep, extreme GB% (64.2%)
Main Cain - Not a GB pitcher (37.7 %); extreme flyball guy
Jair Jurrjens - Not a GB pitcher (43.6 %); almost exactly league average GB%
Mark Buehrle - Not a GB pitcher (45.4 %); almost exactly league average GB%
Chris Carpenter - A GB% pitcher (51.2 %, and higher at his peak), but his career FIP and ERA were almost exactly the same (3.76 vs 3.80, though again, a bigger difference at his peak)
Doug Fister - A very slight GB% (49.2 %) who has had a higher ERA than FIP in 2 of the last 3 years, though for his short career there is some difference (3.34 vs. 3.53)

So basically all you have there to support your argument is Webb and maybe Carpenter and Fister. To which I can counter Lowe, Roy Halladay, Mark Mulder, Kevin Brown, Felix Hernandez, Rick Porcello, AJ Burnett, Jake Westbrook, Aaron Cook, Justin Masterson, Mike Hampton, Brett Anderson, Lucas Harrell, Paul Maholm, CM Wang... All these pitchers have a GB% >50, have seen some or a lot of success, and have no FIP-ERA difference (or some have their ERAs much higher than their FIPs).

Actually, the exact opposite of what you are claiming is true. GB pitchers do not rely on low BABIP because GBs are more likely to be hits than FBs. It is actually extreme flyball pitchers that tend to beat their FIP since a larger amount of FBs are caught, thus lowering their BABIP. Take a look at this (link) where you will see guys like:

Matt Cain
Johan Santana
Jered Weaver
Julio Teheran
Jarrod Washburn
Chris Young (the most extreme example)
Ted Lilly
El Duque
Kevin Appier
Barry Zito

All were pretty good and had high flyball rates >40% (league average = ~36%) with notable ERA-FIP deltas. Now, not certainly every flyball pitcher does this, but the long and the short of it is that they are more likely to buck the FIP regression than the GB guys.

To bring it back this actually bodes well for Miller, since he is himself a moderate flyball guy (41%). So it wouldn't be shocking for him to beat his FIP by a little bit (but not by anything close to a .50 - 1.00 difference).

[50PoundHead]

Mark Bowman @mlbbowman · 5m 5 minutes ago
While in the D.R., the #Braves will meet with Yasmany Tomas.

Mark Bowman @mlbbowman · 5m 5 minutes ago
Members of the #Braves front office are in the Dominican Republic this week to evaluate whether to move or upgrade their academy.

Upgrade might help. Good to see some improvements for the Latin program being considered.

[zitothebrave]

I love watching Carpe step into a buzzsaw. He doesn't know when it's time to quit.

[zitothebrave]

.

To bring it back this actually bodes well for Miller, since he is himself a moderate flyball guy (41%). So it wouldn't be shocking for him to beat his FIP by a little bit (but not by anything close to a .50 - 1.00 difference).

What would be interesting to see if what the trend is. Because seemingly the high FB guys beat their FIP is almost entirely because of HR rate. But what if you have worst case scenario fly ball pitcher? Someone who only gives up homers when someone is on base?

The logic is simple, flyballs are bad for BABIP, either they don't count (homers) or they are likely outs. Grounders and liners are more likely to be hits which is why as Meta so perfectly puts, GB pitchers usually don't crush their FIP because they're giving up lots of hits. Rarely do you have a nasty enough GB pitcher to keep his BABIP consistently low. Hudson was one of those.

[skillet]

http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...-yasmany-tomas

Apparently we must have liked what we saw.

[Heyward]

According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Braves officials were in attendance during Cuban free agent outfielder Yasmany Tomas' workout in the Dominican Republic Tuesday.
Bowman said the Braves continue to "aggressively pursue" Tomas, with Assistant general manager John Coppolella and top international scout Gordon Blakeley among the club representatives in attendance. Tomas would fill the hole in right field vacated when the Braves dealt Jason Heyward to the Cardinals. The Diamondbacks, Phillies, Giants and Padres are just a few of the other teams in the mix for the outfielder.

[emk418]

I really really want this to happen. Big young talent that can step in right away and be around through the new stadium opening. Plus no loss of draft pick. I'm not going to get my hopes up tho.

[Heyward]

I dont see us paying enough for him, seems like the FO really likes him.

Just wonder how much they'll bid.

[cajunrevenge]

I really want Tomas to happen but I also wanted BJ Upton...... so I don't know what to believe anymore.

[Braves1976]

I really want Tomas to happen but I also wanted BJ Upton...... so I don't know what to believe anymore.

I hated the BJ Upton signing but even I didn't see it turning out this bad, it has been worse than my own worst case view of him. I cannot say much on Tomas though other than what little sample size I've seen via video (I did watch him live in the WBC in the past but I wasn't so focused on him at the time). As far as I can tell he has legit power but my concern are the reports that suggest he'll be a Cespedes with less speed and defense ability. Those reports concern me more since he will reportedly cost at least 15 million or more per season. He just doesn't sound as good as the more recent Cuban free agents, unlike Moncada who sounds like a great prospect with a lot potential.

[skillet]

I'm very leery of Tomas. We damn sure don't need another all power, high strike out, low on base guy that is not good defensively. I'm hoping we trade Justin for an excellent young outfielder who we would control for 6 years at low cost for right field and keep Gattis in left.

[Heyward]

I'm very leery of Tomas. We damn sure don't need another all power, high strike out, low on base guy that is not good defensively. I'm hoping we trade Justin for an excellent young outfielder who we would control for 6 years at low cost for right field and keep Gattis in left.

While you're not wrong, our system is bare.

We're not getting into 200+ mil bidding wars with the big markets, so signing Tomas would be a good signing even with the risks that come with it.

I'd do it.

[Garmel]

http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...-yasmany-tomas

Apparently we must have liked what we saw.

Seems like he's slimmed down a lot since the WBC.

[Perfect Cell]

i would rather just keep upton long term than sign this guy

but thats just me