One of the more powerful speeches Obama has given in years. Really well delivered.
I think we can all agree that immigration reform is drastically needed, but likewise question the current methodology bringing it into the fold.
One of the more powerful speeches Obama has given in years. Really well delivered.
I think we can all agree that immigration reform is drastically needed, but likewise question the current methodology bringing it into the fold.
Even as someone left of center, I totally agree. A lot of terrible precedents (on both sides) in terms of executive power over the past few decades. Not saying this cause is particularly right--although immigration reform is needed--but the Constitution (and I"m not a constitutional purist) doesn't allow for decisions to be made solely on the merit of the cause. We will hopefully see something come through the front door with the new Congress.Originally Posted by Hawk
Chess match begins. Smart move politically by Obama. Dems were likely to win the next few presidential elections barring a catastrophe because of the shifting demographics in the electorate. I think this will help increase the odds. Last thing the GOP needs is another civil war between establishment and Tea party.
GOP numbers guys like Rove know they need the Hispanic vote to have any chance in 2016. And how they go about the next two years is going to be telling. Either the Presidential candidates will tell Boehner and McConnell not to pursue a long drawn out fight for two years that might hurt the party (Republican debates are a few months away already!) Or they go straight for impeachment proceedings which could spell a pr nightmare.
Forever Fredi
I don't disagree that a large--perhaps the largest--part of this is the partisan chess match, but is that any way to run the proverbial railroad? That said, the American public seems to want compromise . . . until they get the results of the compromise and then they forget what the definition of the word compromise is. My guess is Eric Cantor's political carcass will be paraded through the GOP caucus' meetings when this issue is discussed.
I didn't hear the speech. Did he say they'd be given legal status or that we just wouldn't prosecute? Haven't followed this closely.
Temporary legal status without fear of deportation once they register for criminal background checks and pass.
I believe the technicality is he's redirecting the agency to focus their efforts on illegal aliens with felony records, not those with clean records.
Forever Fredi
This may be a smart political move for Obama, who has nothing to lose at this point, but not necessarily for the Democratic party. The action is going to expose them to attacks on both the policy AND the practice. Poll numbers suggest tepid suport for the executive measures now, but I question them holding after the incoming onslaught of the GOP 'anarchical' overreach characterizations and rhetoric which will absolutely incite the base and nab some swing votes.
Republicans also have a trump card by the name of Jeb Bush, who ironically has used language nearly verbatim to the Bush 43 'part of American life' quote Obama mentioned in his speech tonight. Jeb's passion for bi-partisan immigration reform is well documented, and allowing him to eke onto the national stage at a political moment like the current is almost like opening Pandora's box for the Democrats. He could come out as an across-aisle compromiser if the Republicans eventually pass legislation that even remotely mimics Obama's orders. But then the law is no longer a Democratic trophy for the 2016 election.
Last edited by Hawk; 11-20-2014 at 11:07 PM.
There's no way Jeb Bush would get elected.
He may be the most likable Bush in the family, but there's no way the country would ever elect another Bush family member in the White House again after 43.
Rand Paul has a better chance of getting elected than Jeb.
Forever Fredi
Does it legalize them or are they still considered illegal? If the latter and they just aren't prosecuted then it would seem to fall within his prosecutorial powers. If the former, then it seems to be an abuse of executive power.
I would've agreed with you even a year ago, but the political climate and poll numbers (for 43 and Bush) tell a different story.
Well in fairness to Dubya, he's gone on the total laid back track of Post-Presidency. Paintings and more paintings. He's done a really good PR job to help his legacy post-Presidency.
I still hold to to my gut that there's no way in hell another person with the last name Bush would get elected anytime soon. Perhaps Jeb's son (George P., ironic) could get elected in a few decades when he's older just because he's a mixed kid which is the future of America's electorate in half a century.
Forever Fredi
From the CNN article. Interpret however you want, not here to debate or argue with you.
A key element of Obama's plan is to instruct immigration authorities to target those undocumented immigrants who are dangerous rather than law-abiding undocumented parents of U.S. citizens and residents and others.
He said they will go after "felons, not families. Criminals, not children. Gang members, not a Mom who's working hard to provide for her kids."
"We'll prioritize, just like law enforcement does every day," he said.
The changes will offer those who qualify the chance to stay temporarily in the country for three years, as long as they pass background checks and pay back taxes. But they will not be offered a path to eventual citizenship or be eligible for federal benefits or health care programs. And, in theory, the measures could be reversed by a future president.
Forever Fredi
Wasnt paying any attention.
I am guessing this has something to do with illegal immigrants basically getting a free pass for entering this country illegally?
Certainly the devil is in the details. If they still are considered illegal, I'm fine with this. If legal (which I'd be inclined to support - just not this way) then he is abusing his Executive action authority.
I'm all for immigration reform and on the surface I like what the President is saying. I don't like what he is doing though. What is so pressing that he couldn't have waited until 4 months into the new Congress to take action?
Forever Fredi
It's purely political, and all about laying claim to the ever so precious Hispanic vote. I feel like the Democrats lose some of their stake if a Republican led Congress enacts any sort of impactful legislation next year.
To answer your question Beds, I think because it's a political move that now it forces Boehner and McConnell to make a move on this.
If both decide to go the route of impeachment/suing, then to hispanics it will look like "the GOP leaders are trying to get rid of us". It will then for sure have heavy implications on the GOP's 2016 hopefuls, especially because their debates start up in a few months in early 2015. This will be all over the debates, giving a chance for whomever to get tons of sound bytes by the presidential candidates. You know someone like Cruz will be hugely against this, so if any of his peers on stage say they're pro amnesty, that sound byte is going to be taken and run with. The impeachment and lawsuit would also be dragged out for pretty much the duration of the last two years of Obama's Presidency. Do you think any of the GOP candidates running for office want that type of battle right before a huge Presidential election? Maybe mid-term they wouldn't care, but with the hispanic vote so hugely important and heavily coveted, I'm sure they'll tell the base to hush hush on this as much as they can.
If both decide to pony up and reach for Democrats to get something done legislatively and bipartisan, then that's when he Cruz's and the Tea Party faction will show their face again, and they'll have a huge inner party war about this again. Boehner has shown no strength of getting the tea party caucus in line on issues that are generally bipartisan. If they somehow manage to still get something done, than Obama will definitely look like a leader on this since he took action before the legislative fighting, and that will be a huge boost for the Dems in 2016 all around.
Forever Fredi
It's worth noting that Jeb has 3 mixed children, now, and can also speak Spanish.
There are other issues to be considered, obviously, but if immigration reform continues to shape up as a hot-button topic for 2016 you couldn't create another candidate with that type of credibility.
Last edited by Hawk; 11-21-2014 at 11:47 AM.
I can buy this. But Obama's team are much smarter than you give them credit for. They won two elections convincingly. If the Republican led Congress does get some legislation passed, Obama's team will definitely know how to PR spin it as the President lead on this since he took executive action before hand. And the fact it's not a secret anymore that Congress did not want anything to do with it because of mid-terms beforehand, will make the President look more eager to get it done. As he said in his speech, this has been a problem for many decades pushed off to the side.
And as I said above, Boehner has shown no history of being able to control the tea party caucus within his party on bipartisan issues. There's also guys like Paul Ryan who are going to probably run, that will be a thorn in Boehner's side. McConnell is probably worse than Harry Reid. And he's got 3 senators whom are going to try and upstage him since they're going to make a bid for 2016 (Paul, Cruz, Rubio).
For as much as people knock Democrats, When Pelosi was Speaker, she really really had her party in line. There was not as big of a divide with the blue dog moderates and progressives as there are establishment GOP and Tea Party. The same can be said with Reid. He had his votes in line when necessary, even the moderates.
Forever Fredi
Well the way I see it, the Republican playbook if they want any shot at winning in 2016 is not through immigration but through the economy.
The strategy for blue is, corner the Republicans on one issue that they'll fight themselves over and if it's immigration then they can pose the question "If the economy is so bad under POTUS, then why have the Republicans prioritized this immigration fight so much? Guess the economy is doing well enough to where they can bicker over immigration".
A lot can happen in 2 years, the economy might be in better shape than it is now. And how do you think the Dems will spin that? A recovered economy with zero help and full obstruction from Boehner and McConnell for 6 years.
2016 is going to be huge for the GOP. If they lose big this time, it might be the end of the Tea Party as we know it.
Forever Fredi
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