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Thread: Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

  1. #201
    Playing the Waiting Game BremanFan88's Avatar
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    Does anyone honestly think they'd trade Gallo for a LF? Average 3B seem to be getting rarer and if Gallo is projected to be better then they can trade him for way more than Justin Upton. And I say this as a big fan of Justin's but good 3B prospects aren't just going to be this easy to get.
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    Playing the Waiting Game blueagleace1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BremanFan88 View Post
    Does anyone honestly think they'd trade Gallo for a LF? Average 3B seem to be getting rarer and if Gallo is projected to be better then they can trade him for way more than Justin Upton. And I say this as a big fan of Justin's but good 3B prospects aren't just going to be this easy to get.
    I agree with you on the rarity of legitimate 3B prospects, with that being said, it seems like many scouts and "experts" seem to think Gallo will eventually have to move to 1B because of his defense -or lack there of- and with Prince -and his unmovable contract- enriched at 1st for the foreseeable future maybe, just maybe, Gallo could be had. Pure speculation on my part, but I couldn't agree more on the fact that 3B prospects are becoming a rarity.
    "Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon"

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    On what basis? Dude's 26 (and will only be 34 when his deal ends -- assuming he doesn't opt out in a couple of years), is fourth among shortstops in OBP (.331) and seventh in defensive runs saved the past three seasons.

    His contract could still end up being a bargain when it's all said and done.
    That contract is awful, no, just no.

    Trading for Andrus would be stupid.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Trading for Andrus would be stupid.
    Just like paying BJ Upton $46MM over the next three years.

    At least the oral jokes will survive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    There's a pretty significant difference between 'listening to offers' and openly shopping a player.

    And what you believe about Oakland trading for Ike Davis and signing Billy Butler to supposedly replace the production that they couldn't get by acquiring a shortstop is an absurd stretch, at best -- but kudos to your ingenuity.
    Andrus contract sucks, stick to copying/pasting twitter posts than talking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Just like paying BJ Upton $46MM over the next three years.

    At least the oral jokes will survive.
    BJ's contract sucks, no one will deny that.

    Trading BJ just to get stuck with another bad contract is retarded.

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Andrus contract sucks, stick to copying/pasting twitter posts than talking.
    Nice. This coming from a guy (or girl) that can barely put together two coherent sentences.

    BTW, I know that making uninformed and unintelligent comments is kind of your thing (and that's cool -- we all have our things) ... but read a little. It helps.
    Last edited by Hawk; 11-23-2014 at 09:55 PM.

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    zitothebrave (11-23-2014)

  9. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    There's a pretty significant difference between 'listening to offers' and openly shopping a player.

    And what you believe about Oakland trading for Ike Davis and signing Billy Butler to supposedly replace the production that they couldn't get by acquiring a shortstop is an absurd stretch, at best -- but kudos to your ingenuity.
    Absolutely. And that difference typically lies in either who the reporter breaking the story is or who's feeding said reporter information.

    Let's ignore for a moment that Rosenthal is the one saying "The Rangers are willing to deal any of their shortstops, but Elvis Andrus is the least likely to be moved because the team believes 2015 will be a big season for the 26-year-old." while none of the Texas writers have mentioned anything approaching that. As a matter of fact, here's Tim Cowlishaw's take on Andrus...

    "So let’s get back to Andrus. At 26, his best offensive season (2012) was only marginally better than what Odor gave this team at 20. Yet because of his glove work — which eludes him at times but remains good — the club chose to reward him with an eight-year deal (that begins this season) as if he were a 20-home run-hitting shortstop.

    Actually, that’s exactly what he has done. Only it has taken him six full seasons and more than 3,500 at-bats to reach those 20 homers.

    The Rangers can get rid of one of the problems Andrus represents, not by trading him but by simply moving him out of the No. 2 spot. Manager Ron Washington always insisted in having speed in that spot, even if Andrus grew increasingly careless with how he used it. Last season’s 27 steals with 15 times caught stealing represented Elvis at his worst on the base paths.

    As a No. 8 hitter, given the fact he can still help the team defensively, Andrus isn’t bad. He’s just badly overpaid. If this team wants to get better right away, it has to live with some of its accounting errors that came about during its brief but inspired run at a championship."


    Sound familiar? As in the Braves are just going to have to live with the mistakes that were the B. J. and Uggla contracts???

    And not only was 2012 by far Elvis' best offensive season, his numbers have now declined significantly for two consecutive seasons. "Believing 2015 will be a big season for him" is GM-speak. Here's a pretty good comparison for you...

    Player A:
    Age 23 - .286/.349/.378, 21 SBs, 92 OPS+
    Age 24 - .278/.321/.338, 42 SBs, 82 OPS+
    Age 25 - .263/.313/.333, 27 SBs, 84 OPS+

    Change - -.023/-.036/-.045

    Player B:
    Age 23 - .273/.383/.401, 44 SBs, 108 OPS+
    Age 24 - .241/.313/.373, 44 SBs, 82 OPS+
    Age 25 - .237/.322/.424, 42 SBs, 106 OPS+

    Change - -.036/-.061/+.023


    If everyone proclaiming to have seen B. J. turning into what he has at the time he signed his deal doesn't see similar signs in Andrus' numbers you've got blinders on. The difference? We owe Upton three ~$15 million years - anyone taking on Elvis' contract is taking more than twice as big a gamble.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  10. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Absolutely. And that difference typically lies in either who the reporter breaking the story is or who's feeding said reporter information.

    Let's ignore for a moment that Rosenthal is the one saying "The Rangers are willing to deal any of their shortstops, but Elvis Andrus is the least likely to be moved because the team believes 2015 will be a big season for the 26-year-old." while none of the Texas writers have mentioned anything approaching that.
    It's pretty foolhardy to dismiss Rosenthal, arguably the preeminent national baseball journalist in the field, just because he's not reporting the same information that Dallas beat writers are (or aren't in this case). When's the last time David O'Brien or Mark Bowman broke a significant story regarding the Braves? It's even more baffling to then prop up Tim Cowlishaw -- who is a columnist (not reporter) -- as a legitimate/knowledgeable/reputable entity.

    If everyone proclaiming to have seen B. J. turning into what he has at the time he signed his deal doesn't see similar signs in Andrus' numbers you've got blinders on. The difference? We owe Upton three ~$15 million years - anyone taking on Elvis' contract is taking more than twice as big a gamble.
    It's a gamble, no doubt -- but as I've already mentioned, if the Braves are serious about re-tooling vs. rebuilding, then ridding themselves of BJ Upton's contract is integral to that process. No team is going to trade the Braves any talent for him, and the team majorly loses out if they dump Minor/Gattis just to get rid of BJ.

    Look, I've not once in this thread advocated for the Braves to trade Upton straight up for Andrus. I suggested that the only way to make acquiring Andrus potentially worth the risk would be for the Braves to move other pieces in the process in order to obtain some of the Rangers' premium talent in return.

    For example:

    Justin Upton
    BJ Upton
    Mike Minor

    for

    Andrus
    Prospect A (top tier: Choice/Williams/Gonzalez/Profar whomever)
    Prospect B (mid/low tier)
    Cash ($5-10MM)

    The Braves clear BJ's $46MM, Justin's $14.5MM, and Minor's ~5MM+ = $65MM
    The Braves assume Andrus' $120MM less Upton/Upton/Minor = $55M ... less cash received.
    Potential prospect value ($10MM-$30MM)

    It's not perfect, but it's far from unreasonable. The Braves kill off a major liability in BJ, move Justin for some top shelf talent, and still have plenty of financial wiggle room to compete moving forward. Add Lester and some OF help and you compete in 2015.

    I don't agree with your assessment of Andrus, but also don't deny that the way the numbers are trending is discouraging. That being said, even despite those perceived shortcomings, he could still help the Braves immediately at the top of the order with his speed and on-base ability as well as make a pretty damn good partner with Andrelton at the keystone. Plus, he's still incredibly young and owns the same basic skillset that Texas thought they were investing in when they extended him to begin with. That's way more than can be said for BJ, who is unlikely to ever meaningfully contribute for this club again.
    Last edited by Hawk; 11-24-2014 at 01:04 AM.

  11. #210
    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    The issue with Bossman is he never was the defender Andrus is, and Andrus really doesn't have any farther to fall.

    There are alarming trends with Andrus that mean he could go further, he went from 9.5 BB% in 2010 to 8.0 in 2012 to 6.7 last year, while his K rate is about the same.

    ANdrus is a terrible contract, If we could swap Bossman for ANdrus and cash considerations (maybe we send some to them short term, they send a lot to us long term, as Andrus is signed for 5 more years at about 75 million more) as part of a bigger Justin or Gattis trade we could be cooking with gas.

    Let's theorize 2 trades. First we trade CJ for a bucket of balls, we won't get much more and don't need much more. When he was extended his short term loss was he was highly tradeable his long term potential was a bounceback and he could be an actual asset. So we dump him for a bum. Some 26 year old in A ball.

    Then we pull this off. Bossman, Justin, Hale, and Russell for Andrus, about 56M in cash spread out over 8 years as the rangers seem fit as long as payments start by the time BJ is out of contract, Joey Gallo, Alex Gonzalez and Lewis Brinson

    So our team looks something like this next year with long term in parenthesis.

    C - Bethancourt
    1B - Freeman
    2B - Andrus
    3B - Gallo
    SS - Simmons
    LF - Gattis (maybe there long term too, if not, who knows, Davidson?)
    CF - Cunnigham (Peraza)
    RF - Rios (signed to 2 year, long term Brinson, maybe Davidson)

    Use our massive savings to splurge on Lester.

    Rotation
    Lester
    Julio
    Wood
    Minor
    Miller

    It creates a for sure better long term projection team than we have now. I mean again, ideally I'd rather keep Justin but that seems a forgone conclusion that he's gone.
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  12. #211
    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    If the Braves are going to chase a former player with a bad contract I would rather they go after Prado.

  13. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    If the Braves are going to chase a former player with a bad contract I would rather they go after Prado.
    Dalyn just went on suicide watch because of your post.

    I'm curious as to why Texas would want J. Upton. They don't appear to be close to contending. I thought the Red Sox would have greater interest, but they seem to be going in different directions with the courting of Ramirez and Sandoval.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Dalyn just went on suicide watch because of your post.

    I'm curious as to why Texas would want J. Upton. They don't appear to be close to contending. I thought the Red Sox would have greater interest, but they seem to be going in different directions with the courting of Ramirez and Sandoval.
    Like us (for a long time before we got him), Texas and Seattle have always been terribly interested in him. I can't speak for their "whys" other than the supposition that they (like Wren - as amazing as it seems to say it) were a bit ahead of the curve in their recognition that the shortage of true right-handed power hitters who could play in any park was going to be as big a shortage as it is before we landed him (as well as Uggla and gave Gattis his shot).

    Texas has always made a little more sense from my point of view because he's always been almost a perfect fit for years - a middle of the lineup of Beltre/Hamilton/Upton before and Beltre/Fielder/Upton now has always been a scary proposition - and money to meet his market has never been a concern there.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  15. #214
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    Rangers Inquire About Braves Outfielder Justin Upton

    http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/11/...r-justin-upton
    Chopping With The Braves And Rolling With The Tide

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    "The Rangers would also be interested in acquiring a pitcher from the Braves in a deal, a source said."

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    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rico43 View Post
    If the Braves are going to chase a bad always injured former player with an equally bad contract I would rather they go after Prado.

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    Director of Minor League Reports rico43's Avatar
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    It's not nice to put words in the mouth of a moderator.

    Jeez people, Prado wasn't hurt, his freaking appendix nearly blew up on him. Same as it did Heyward, if I recall. He was Yankees' hottest hitter when he went down.

  19. #218
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    It doesn't seem like we match up with the Rangers for Upton. I wonder who we're interested in

  20. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    "The Rangers would also be interested in acquiring a pitcher from the Braves in a deal, a source said."
    I suggested this yesterday since the Rangers are also looking to add to the rotation. Since Minor is not under control through 2017, he is a candidate to be packaged with JUp. If JUp is "worth" Taijuan Walker, then I would have to think any package with both JUp and Minor would have to start with Profar and be added to from there.

    Profar would solve either 3B or 2B for the next half decade and would be a solid centerpiece in such a deal. I don't know the Rangers' system well enough to suggest what might be added.

    EDIT: Just read about Profar's injury. I don't think Odor is enough of a centerpiece for a JUp/Minor package, and since Gallo and Alfaro are supposedly untouchable, I don't see much that the Rangers could offer.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-24-2014 at 02:33 PM.

  21. #220
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
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    I like the idea of packaging Justin, Minor, and BJ together. Saves so much money between now and 2017 that Hart could do just about anything.

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