Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

[sturg33]

I'm just saying, the pitching should be very strong.

The lineup won't be great, but it should be better. Markakis, Freeman, Upton, and Gattis are all above average. If BJ can rebound (I know I know), and Callaspo can be solid... And CJ regresses to the mean a bit from last year, and Simmons puts up a 2013 year instead of a 2014 year.

Whew! A lot of ifs in there. But nothing too crazy.

[Metaphysicist]

Patience is the right approach here. Worst case scenario is we have an entire year's worth of Upton and get a draft pick. That's worst case.

Well, worst case is we trade him for Casey Kotchman, Jr.

[clvclv]

My guess (and obviously it's just that) is that Hart has no real intention of playing out 2015 with Justin on the team and walking away with only a draft choice to show for it. He might do that, if all the trades offered to him are legitimately awful and bring back no one of value, but I think that's a last resort, and even then he'll hope to make a trade mid-season.

Hart has to say he's willing to do that, and he's right to say so, just as I think he was right to wait out the market, but it clearly isn't helping him generate much leverage. If he received offers with the sort of returns we've been batting about on this board, Hart would already have traded Upton. I suspect that if the Mariners were willing to give up Walker, Upton would be finalizing a lease on a lovely waterfront condo in Seattle right about now. It's possible that dragging this out can get that sort of return, but that strikes me as fabulously unlikely and dependent upon some exogenous shock- think Victor Martinez hurting his knee and Detroit responding by giving Prince Fielder a panic contract.

I do think this is the case, and I agree that Hart's right.

I also think this is simply a game of chicken between Jack Z and Hart, and that Jack Z's eventually going to blink first - Justin's been their first choice all along (even before they signed Cruz), and you don't get all those pieces lined up and in place and not take the final piece when it's being placed on your doorstep. They cleared the spot for Justin AND got Happ (to take Walker's spot) in the same deal, and Jack Z's now trying to wait Hart out to see if he can have his cake and eat it too. Justin makes them the best team in the game on paper - Cano/Upton/Seager/Cruz would be an absolute nightmare, and King Felix/Iwakuma/Paxton match up with anybody in a short series. On the flip side, I think Hart & Company targeted one of Walker/Gausman/Bundy from day one and wanted to get at least one more Pitcher with similar upside in a Heyward or Gattis deal - when Miller was offered up they pounced.

They identified the places they needed to upgrade IF they were going to move Justin, Jason, and/or Evan and are willing to let things play out if they don't get the pieces they needed to move them.

[Russ2dollas]

The Nats essentially converted their extra OFer into their replacement at SS once Desmond leaves, and a SP prospect. They somehow weaseled their way into the deal and came out like bandits.

I've watched a lot of Trea Turner and I don't think he's a MLB SS or a MLB hitter. Went to my undergrad and love the guy. But he's not the 70 or 80 runner he was before the ankle injury. He's not a good hitter and has no pop. Some injury concerns. Might get moved off of SS b/c he has some fielding issues (too many errors) and body. Might end up at 2B, 3B or CF.

I'm not saying he's a bum. He was picked high. He's still very fast with a very strong arm. Great baseball junkie who could improve. But I don't think this is an Addisson Russell for the Nats. I think best case scenario you're talking last year's Simba with 30+ steals and not as good on D. And I just don't see him being that level of SS or getting on base enough.

[yeezus]

I've watched a lot of Trea Turner and I don't think he's a MLB SS or a MLB hitter. Went to my undergrad and love the guy. But he's not the 70 or 80 runner he was before the ankle injury. He's not a good hitter and has no pop. Some injury concerns. Might get moved off of SS b/c he has some fielding issues (too many errors) and body. Might end up at 2B, 3B or CF.

I'm not saying he's a bum. He was picked high. He's still very fast with a very strong arm. Great baseball junkie who could improve. But I don't think this is an Addisson Russell for the Nats. I think best case scenario you're talking last year's Simba with 30+ steals and not as good on D. And I just don't see him being that level of SS or getting on base enough.

IIRC I read most don't think he has the arm for SS.

[Orphan Black]

Kemp has arthritis in both hips so that trade is currently on hold

[clvclv]

My guess (and obviously it's just that) is that Hart has no real intention of playing out 2015 with Justin on the team and walking away with only a draft choice to show for it. He might do that, if all the trades offered to him are legitimately awful and bring back no one of value, but I think that's a last resort, and even then he'll hope to make a trade mid-season.

Hart has to say he's willing to do that, and he's right to say so, just as I think he was right to wait out the market, but it clearly isn't helping him generate much leverage. If he received offers with the sort of returns we've been batting about on this board, Hart would already have traded Upton. I suspect that if the Mariners were willing to give up Walker, Upton would be finalizing a lease on a lovely waterfront condo in Seattle right about now. It's possible that dragging this out can get that sort of return, but that strikes me as fabulously unlikely and dependent upon some exogenous shock- think Victor Martinez hurting his knee and Detroit responding by giving Prince Fielder a panic contract.

To expound on this a little further - Jim Duquette just mentioned again on XM that he was told by someone in Justin's camp that they were under the impression that we've received an offer that Hart would accept but that he's waiting it out for the time being and that that offer's still on the table (Crick and Panik for Justin and Johnson perhaps?).

That would certainly lend weight to the theory that Hart's just waiting Jack Z out.

[emk418]

To expound on this a little further - Jim Duquette just mentioned again on XM that he was told by someone in Justin's camp that they were under the impression that we've received an offer that Hart would accept but that he's waiting it out for the time being and that that offer's still on the table (Crick and Panik for Justin and Johnson perhaps?).

That would certainly lend weight to the theory that Hart's just waiting Jack Z out.

I may be in the minority but I'm not a Kyle Crick fan. I think he's a long term set up man/closer.

[Oklahomabrave]

To expound on this a little further - Jim Duquette just mentioned again on XM that he was told by someone in Justin's camp that they were under the impression that we've received an offer that Hart would accept but that he's waiting it out for the time being and that that offer's still on the table (Crick and Panik for Justin and Johnson perhaps?).

That would certainly lend weight to the theory that Hart's just waiting Jack Z out.

Didn't the Mariners already get an outfielder?

[Russ2dollas]

IIRC I read most don't think he has the arm for SS.

He has the arm for SS or 3B. Arm won't be in the top 3 things that could move him from SS

[MadduxFanII]

To expound on this a little further - Jim Duquette just mentioned again on XM that he was told by someone in Justin's camp that they were under the impression that we've received an offer that Hart would accept but that he's waiting it out for the time being and that that offer's still on the table (Crick and Panik for Justin and Johnson perhaps?).

That would certainly lend weight to the theory that Hart's just waiting Jack Z out.

That's an interesting development. It's third hand (Duquette relaying Upton's camp's impression of Hart's thinking), but any water in a desert is appreciated.

[clvclv]

I may be in the minority but I'm not a Kyle Crick fan. I think he's a long term set up man/closer.

I agree wholeheartedly. That's why waiting Jack Z (or Dan Duquette for Bundy or Gausman) out makes all the sense in the world. Panik's a nice enough player, but we had him before we traded him for Vizcaino IMO.

Following that train of thought if we eventually got Walker or Bundy for Justin straight-up, we would still be relatively competitive in 2015 - Gattis replaces Justin in LF (to an extent), Markakis replaces Heyward in RF (to an extent), a full season of Panik is a huge upgrade over what we got from Uggla's time in the lineup and we haven't created any "holes" - all while accomplishing the main stated goal - significantly improving the controllable rotation depth (both on the big club and for the next few years until we draft better). Peraza could spend 2015 learning to play CF and we would clear Uggla's money this season enabling us to spend big on one OF bat next winter.

[dak]

Latest from Bowman. Basically a Hart posturing piece. Also, this nugget:

"Before signing Alex Rios on Monday night, the Royals showed some interest in Upton, and it appeared they were at least contemplating a package that would have included Johnson. A person familiar with the details of these discussions indicated Kansas City was toying with the idea of having Johnson platoon with Mike Moustakas, who batted .172 against left-handed pitchers this year."

http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...ket-shakes-out

[sturg33]

Hart insisting on packaging our garbage is what is keeping us from making a deal

[cajunrevenge]

Isn't getting rid of our garbage what everyone here wants? Anytime our gm makes a move quickly they get criticized for not waiting for potential better offers but when they do that people bitch it's not fast enough. We are 4 months from the start of the 2015 season.

[emk418]

Hart insisting on packaging our garbage is what is keeping us from making a deal

It's a fine line and hard to really take a side here. Is it better to package CJ with Justin to clear money but get a lesser return? Or just capitalize on having a huge bat in Upton as a trade piece and get the most talent that we can. I think I prefer more talent but also would be ecstatic to have CJ off the team.

[MadduxFanII]

The Johnson contract is bad, but it's not franchise-crippling bad. Getting out of it should be a priority, but not a high enough priority that it should cause us to accept a meaningfully reduced return in a package with Gattis and/or Justin. If Johnson rebounds to, say, .290/.335/.420 next year, would it really be impossible to move a meaningful chunk of the two years and $16.5 million left on his contract? I don't think so.

He doesn't have positive trade value right now, but the contract isn't bad enough to force us to a desperate place where we accept less simply because we include Johnson's contract in the bargain. Put another way, if this is the trade we make for Justin:

Other Team Acquires: Upton
Braves Acquire: Player A, Player B

Then it's fair that the deal become:

Other Team Acquires: Upton, Johnson
Braves Acquire: Player A, Player B

As opposed to:

Other Team Acquires: Upton, Johnson
Braves Acquire: Player A

We should be OK getting nothing for Johnson, in other words, but not OK with getting less for Upton simply because of Johnson.

BJ's contract, on the other hand, really is bad enough that it might well justify taking far less for Justin simply to get rid of the lesser Upton's deal.

[BedellBrave]

And - none of us know enough to say what Hart is or isn't doing.

[NYCBrave]

I agree wholeheartedly. That's why waiting Jack Z (or Dan Duquette for Bundy or Gausman) out makes all the sense in the world. Panik's a nice enough player, but we had him before we traded him for Vizcaino IMO.

Following that train of thought if we eventually got Walker or Bundy for Justin straight-up, we would still be relatively competitive in 2015 - Gattis replaces Justin in LF (to an extent), Markakis replaces Heyward in RF (to an extent), a full season of Panik is a huge upgrade over what we got from Uggla's time in the lineup and we haven't created any "holes" - all while accomplishing the main stated goal - significantly improving the controllable rotation depth (both on the big club and for the next few years until we draft better). Peraza could spend 2015 learning to play CF and we would clear Uggla's money this season enabling us to spend big on one OF bat next winter.

Do we really want Joe Panik? The numbers he put up this year in SF were spearheaded by a hollow batting average, just like he's done in the minors. In fact, he really don't do anything good, and he's already 24.

[Braves1976]

And - none of us know enough to say what Hart is or isn't doing.

True, we don't know if the lower asking price with CJ included is too much lower or better than not packaging the two. We'd need leaked or inside information to make heads or tails of that. We have a lot of rumors to go on but they call them rumors for a reason.

All we can do is consider Hart's track record and hope for the best. I cannot say I like his track record personally (at least not here so far or as GM in Texas), but I do hope for the best. :)