https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-t...s-7a208a8bb206
Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.
Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):
It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.
A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.