2015 Hall of Fame Ballot: Are Smoltz and Sheffield really longshots? (some say so)

[rico43]

2015 HALL OF FAME BALLOT
Here are the first-time eligible players, in alphabetical order:

Rich Aurillia
Aaron Boone
Tony Clark
Carlos Delgado
Jermaine Dye
Darin Erstad
Cliff Floyd
Nomar Garciaparra
Brian Giles
Tom Gordon
Eddie Guardado
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Troy Percival
Jason Schmidt
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz

Now, here are the holdovers, listed in order of the percentage of the vote they received last year.

Craig Biggio, 74.8 percent
Mike Piazza, 62.2
Jeff Bagwell, 54.3
Tim Raines, 46.1
Roger Clemens, 35.4
Barry Bonds, 34.7
Lee Smith, 29.9
Curt Schilling, 29.2
Edgar Martinez, 25.2
Alan Trammell, 20.8
Mike Mussina, 20.3
Jeff Kent, 15.2
Fred McGriff, 11.7
Mark McGwire, 11
Larry Walker, 10.2
Don Mattingly, 8.2
Sammy Sosa, 7.2

Let's make it simple: Unit gets his 95 percent, Biggio gets his two votes, Pedro should get 80-85 percent and Smoltz, well, he might have to sneak over the 75 percentile according to one analyst.
From the Sporting News:
Smoltz has a strong resume and he will be elected to the Hall eventually, joining longtime teammates Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. But with Johnson and Martinez topping the ballot, Smoltz likely will come up short in 2015.
and this:
Sheffield has the kind of numbers that ordinarily would mean an easy pass into the Hall. But he was linked to PEDs in the Mitchell Report, so he has no chance.

Here is what Yahoo says:
Smoltz will be a question mark. He was effective as both a starter and closer, but wasn't as dominating as Martinez and Johnson, or his famous Atlanta Braves teammates, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, who were inducted last year. That Hall of Fame lineage might help Smoltz, but the fact that voters haven't allowed Mike Mussina in, makes you wonder how they'll view Smoltz.

And here is an ESPN take:
Smoltz has a little more complicated case and may suffer in comparison to being on the same ballot with Johnson and Martinez. While Pedro was 219-100 with a 2.93 ERA, Smoltz was 213-155 with a 3.33 ERA. He did pick up 154 saves while serving as a closer for three-plus seasons and maybe that will resonate with voters. Smoltz also has a great postseason record -- 15-4, 2.67 ERA -- but similar postseason dominance didn't help Curt Schilling last year when he received just 29 percent of the votes. I believe Smoltz does much better than that, but I don't see why Schilling -- 216-146, 3.46 in his career with 79.9 WAR compared to Smoltz's 69.5 -- would receive just 29 percent and Smoltz 75 percent.

[50PoundHead]

I think it will be tough for Smoltz to be a first ballot guy, especially when you figure all the votes Rich Aurilia will siphon away from everybody.

[cajunrevenge]

Smoltz should get extra credit for being the only player to be with Atlanta thru the whole streak. It's It's a more unbreakable streak than the 56 game hitting streak. I think his post season stats should be added to his regular season stats when we talk about him compared to others. You can count others playoff stats too but Smoltz has more than just about anyone. If legends are made in October then Smoltz Is A First Ballot Hall Of famer.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Sheffield will be a longshot, mainly because he has been connected to PEDs. If the voters are keeping Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, and Clemens out, they'll have no problem keeping Sheffield away. It will probably be tough for Smoltz to get in on the first ballot, but he'll get there. My early prediction on who will get voted in are Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, and Mike Piazza

[weso1]

Smoltz was better than Glavine, imo. Comparing him to Martinez is unfair. Martinez was arguably one of the best ever in his prime. Smoltz was every bit as good as Randy Johnson. Sure Johnson struck out a ton of guys, but he walked a lot of guys too.

If Glavine is a first ballot Hall of Famer then so is Smoltzy.

[Braves1976]

Smoltz was better than Glavine, imo.

Agreed. I get annoyed the way certain writers act like Glavine was so much better than Smoltz. If you ask me it is not even worthy of debate, Smoltz was the better pitcher and he showed it more come playoff time. Glavine was great in game 6 of the '95 WS vs the Indians but in the early to mid-90's it was often Smoltz picking him and some of our other starters up in big playoff games (including game 7 situations).

To sum it up, if Glavine is a first ballot HOFer then Smoltz should be too.

[zitothebrave]

Sheffield won't get in as long as Bonds isn't in. He was actually caught cheating.

Smoltz should get in first ballot, but then again so should Schilling, and he didn't.

[Knucksie]

Best benchmark for Smoltz is Eckersley. Smoltz was better as starter and elite level as closer, then went back to starting.

Obviously, HOF voting is over the span of an entire career, but one thing should work in Smoltz's favor with voters. Game 7 of the '91 WS is regarded by many as one of the best ever. They do not discount the pitching performance by a young Smoltz vs. his hero, Jack Morris.

[50PoundHead]

Sheffield won't get in as long as Bonds isn't in. He was actually caught cheating.

Smoltz should get in first ballot, but then again so should Schilling, and he didn't.

Good comp for this situation.

[zitothebrave]

Good comp for this situation.

Well the only difference is Smoltz is much more liked as a person and that is part of it. Lots of people thought Schilling was a dick, and lets face it some people can't separate the man from his religious/political opinions as well. Schilling belongs in the HOF, he's arguably the 5th best pitcher of his era, after Clemens, Maddux, RJ, and Pedro. Glavine got in cause of old school voters, he belonged in but he belonged in less than Smoltz, Schilling, or Mussina. I won't argue PEttite or Kevin Brown as they're known juicers. But because Glavine got 305, that's what got him in first ballot.

[The Chosen One]

Smoltz gets in on the first ballot.

[50PoundHead]

Well the only difference is Smoltz is much more liked as a person and that is part of it. Lots of people thought Schilling was a dick, and lets face it some people can't separate the man from his religious/political opinions as well. Schilling belongs in the HOF, he's arguably the 5th best pitcher of his era, after Clemens, Maddux, RJ, and Pedro. Glavine got in cause of old school voters, he belonged in but he belonged in less than Smoltz, Schilling, or Mussina. I won't argue PEttite or Kevin Brown as they're known juicers. But because Glavine got 305, that's what got him in first ballot.

I think the other thing is that Glavine was always held in high respect by the sportswriting community. Articulate guy who never dodged things.

[The Chosen One]

I don't understand why Glavine doesn't get the respect he deserves.

Glavine was the mark of consistency and longevity. He could dominate, not with K's but just sheer toughness and grit as nsacpi would say. His stuff was nowhere near maddux or smoltz but he was a damn good pitcher. Threw fastball and change nearly his entire career and could still pitch a complete game shutout.

[50PoundHead]

I don't understand why Glavine doesn't get the respect he deserves.

Glavine was the mark of consistency and longevity. He could dominate, not with K's but just sheer toughness and grit as nsacpi would say. His stuff was nowhere near maddux or smoltz but he was a damn good pitcher. Threw fastball and change nearly his entire career and could still pitch a complete game shutout.

Glavine was a great athlete (drafted in both baseball and hockey), but I always thought it was his indomitable will that elevated his performance to a level worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. The guy simply would not give in to any hitter.

[The Chosen One]

Glavine was a great athlete (drafted in both baseball and hockey), but I always thought it was his indomitable will that elevated his performance to a level worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. The guy simply would not give in to any hitter.

Mike Redmond.

[Millwood1Hitter]

I don't understand why Glavine doesn't get the respect he deserves.

Glavine was the mark of consistency and longevity. He could dominate, not with K's but just sheer toughness and grit as nsacpi would say. His stuff was nowhere near maddux or smoltz but he was a damn good pitcher. Threw fastball and change nearly his entire career and could still pitch a complete game shutout.

Most fans and people have short memories. Glavine was great, deserved to be first ballot HOF and his career is absolutely amazing when you take into the context how good he really was and how consistant and how long he did it for. But he has 3 things that often go against him in the debate vs Smoltz:

1) Glavine wasn't sexy to watch, he didn't have a 95 mph fastball like Smoltz or a devestating slider or split that just dropped out of this universe. Glavine went about there with a low 90's fastball and an excellent changeup and absolutely wouldn't give in to any hitter no matter the situation and pitch gem after gem. There we're a lot of times in the early 90's when Smoltz would have 3-4 absolutely dominating starts with high K's in a row and then just get absolutely clobbered while Glavine would just go out there time after time and give you 7+ innings of quality baseball. Sometimes the game wasn't comfortable, and Glavine didn't seem to be in a groove and had a number of baserunners throughout the game, but there he was in the 7th inning giving up little to no runs.

2) The perceived clutchness effect. There is no doubt that if I had a game to win in a big situation as a Braves fan that Smoltz was my guy, but let's not act like Glavine was chopped liver when the lights shined the most. Smoltz went toe to toe as a youngster in Game 7 in 1991 of the World Series in arguably the best World Series game ever, and everyone remembers that. But Glavine had his moment too, a 1 hitter in Game 6 of 1995 World Series against the almighty Indians offense. Glavine pitched gems in 1991 vs the Pirates and Twins, 1992 vs Toronto, 93 vs Philly, 95 vs the Rockies, Reds, and 2 wins vs the vaunted Indians. He was good in 1996 as well, and had a number of good starts in the postseason in 1997, 1998, 1999. But for whatever reason, fans remember Smoltz's dominant games and relive what Poison Avery did early on, and neglect the consistancy and greatness of Glavine that he exhibited in big games...and his win/loss record like Maddux's isn't indicitive of their pitching, as they had some bad luck and the offense didn't support them against other great pitchers at the time. Also, for whatever reason, some of Glavine's bad moments like in 1997 vs Marlins, 2000 against the Cards or 2002 against the Giants stick out in our memories. Besides those games Glavine was phenominal in the postseason and also nearly led the Mets to the World Series in 2006.

Everyone points to Game 7 of 1991, in which Smoltz was great, but we lost the game (not his fault) and we lost the series. If Glavine doesn't pitch that absolute masterpiece on October 28, 1995 we probably lose that game and might even lose the series...after all the game 7 starter would have been Smoltz who was absolutely destroyed by Cleveland in game 3, and they had their "ace" and a quality pitcher in line to start the game in Charles Nagy. Man, if it wasn't for that gem we really would have been the Buffalo Bills of baseball, wouldn't we.

3.) See final point from above, Glavine lost favor when he signed with our arch rival. People understand why Maddux left as it was known that it was going to happen, and Smoltz left when the Braves determined that he was done, and Avery flamed out, and Glavine signed with the devil. Some people will never be able to forget that fact and appreciate his dominance in a different way than the others.

[zitothebrave]

Let us compare Glavine and smoltz on their careers as that's the simple way of doing it.

Glavine 305 wins 203 losses 3.54 ERA 118 ERA+ 4413.1 IP 5.3 K/9 3.1 BB/9
Smoltz 214 wins 155 losses 154 saves 3.33 ERA 125 ERA+ 3473 innings 8.0 K/9 2.6 BB/9

[The Chosen One]

I actually think Smoltz's saving grace to his HOF conconsideration is he was an elite closer for 3 consecutive seasons. If he started those years he ends up around 240 wins in his career total and in the same company as Schilling and Mussina.

The fact he compiled 150 saves to go with 200 wins is awesome. 150 saves and the 200 wins looks sexier than 240 wins and 0 saves. The fact everyone knows Gagne was taking peds.... Smoltz was the best closer in the national league from 2002 to 2004.

[The Chosen One]

Let us compare Glavine and smoltz on their careers as that's the simple way of doing it.

Glavine 305 wins 203 losses 3.54 ERA 118 ERA+ 4413.1 IP 5.3 K/9 3.1 BB/9
Smoltz 214 wins 155 losses 154 saves 3.33 ERA 125 ERA+ 3473 innings 8.0 K/9 2.6 BB/9

It's pointless to compare them head on Zeets. They're two totally different pitchers. Glavine wasn't going to K you, Smoltz was. Glavine logged over 1k more innings from starting and lasting a long time. Does anyone remember when Maddux and Glavine held the record for longest start to an MLB career without going on the DL?

And while I'm not as big on the W stat as I used to be you cannot neglect Glavine got 300. If Smoltz stayed as a starter over closer he wouldn't have gotten that close to 300.

[rico43]

On December 8, the Veteran's Committee will announce its balloting on the so-called Golden Era (1947-72)

The ballot contains:

Minnie Minoso
Gil Hodges
Jim Kaat
Tony Oliva
Dick (Richie) Allen
Luis Tiant
Ken Boyer
Bill Pierce
Bob Howsam (Executive)

A decent list, I think there are a couple of guys here who people thought were already in the Hall. Figure Howsam might be most likely since he wasn't on BBWAA ballot. Hodges was the historic near-miss in his 15 years on the ballot. Wonder if dying so suddenly and not being in the public eye has cost his chances.