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  1. #1
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    Two Scenarios

    Scenario 1 Heyward at 8 mil in 2015 and 25 mil in 2016-2018. Total projected WAR of 18 (4.5 per year) for $83 mil.

    Scenario 2 Markakis at 44 mil over 2015 to 2018. Total WAR of 5. Miller and Jenkins generate 9 WAR with a total salary of 20 mil from 2015 to 2018. Total WAR from Markakis and Miller 14 at a cost of 64 mil.

    Projections for salaries and wins in each scenario are my own. Other people will come up with different projections.

    Anyhow on to the last step. Scenario 1 generates 4 more wins but at an additional cost of 19 mil.

    The question then becomes whether in today's market you think those 19 mil extra will allow you to buy those 4 wins. I will note that most contracts being signed this season suggest an average market price per win around 9M or so. That would leave us 2 wins better in the first scenario.

    This little exercise suggests that it is a closer call than I would have expected. Though I think things tip a little further in favor of scenario 1 when you consider that Jordan Walden was also shipped out. At least for a four year horizon, I like Scenario 1 better. But there is a complicating factor having to do with Jason presumably being signed for longer than 3 or 4 years at 25M/year. If it is a really long deal it takes us into his declining years.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-03-2014 at 11:06 PM.

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    It's pure conjecture on my part but I think Heyward will be going for more than a 3 year deal. If he has a great year in 2015, he'll get the longer contract. If he continues at his same level or trends downward would you want him for another 3 years at 25mil/year?

    Which leaves me with Scenario 2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BedellBrave View Post
    It's pure conjecture on my part but I think Heyward will be going for more than a 3 year deal. If he has a great year in 2015, he'll get the longer contract. If he continues at his same level or trends downward would you want him for another 3 years at 25mil/year?

    Which leaves me with Scenario 2.
    If he has a great year in 2015 he will get more than 25M and it will be a very long contract. But I am addressing the situation as it presented itself this post-season. From what I gather Heyward's agent was asking for something along the lines of 25M/year for ten years. If he was asking for that presumably a negotiation would have led to something either shorter or a lower AAV or maybe a little of both.

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    But 3 years? Just doesn't seem like a realistic scenario upon which to make the comparison.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BedellBrave View Post
    But 3 years? Just doesn't seem like a realistic scenario upon which to make the comparison.
    I chose the 2015-2018 period so I could cut off the analysis at the year Markakis' contract expired and Miller hits free agency. No because that is what I think would be the length of Heyward's contract.

    Realistically I think we could have signed Heyward for 25M/year for 8 years, which would have taken him to his age 32 season. Probably for a bit less, but we'll never know. So if you want to extend the analysis for the 2019 to 2024 period, you need to ask whether Heyward would have been productive enough during those five years to justify the freight. Imo looking at it over the longer period further strengthens the case for scenario 1. Under scenario 2 the money coming off the books after 2018 would presumably have to be spent at a time when the cost of a win is even higher.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-03-2014 at 11:32 PM.

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    I just think to get him for those 3 years by which you make the comparison would require the additional years which makes the comparison artificial. If that makes sense - and it's late and my brain doesn't work that well to begin with so it probably doesn't make sense. :)

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