Scenario 1 Heyward at 8 mil in 2015 and 25 mil in 2016-2018. Total projected WAR of 18 (4.5 per year) for $83 mil.
Scenario 2 Markakis at 44 mil over 2015 to 2018. Total WAR of 5. Miller and Jenkins generate 9 WAR with a total salary of 20 mil from 2015 to 2018. Total WAR from Markakis and Miller 14 at a cost of 64 mil.
Projections for salaries and wins in each scenario are my own. Other people will come up with different projections.
Anyhow on to the last step. Scenario 1 generates 4 more wins but at an additional cost of 19 mil.
The question then becomes whether in today's market you think those 19 mil extra will allow you to buy those 4 wins. I will note that most contracts being signed this season suggest an average market price per win around 9M or so. That would leave us 2 wins better in the first scenario.
This little exercise suggests that it is a closer call than I would have expected. Though I think things tip a little further in favor of scenario 1 when you consider that Jordan Walden was also shipped out. At least for a four year horizon, I like Scenario 1 better. But there is a complicating factor having to do with Jason presumably being signed for longer than 3 or 4 years at 25M/year. If it is a really long deal it takes us into his declining years.
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