Gattis Traded To Astros (pg. 13)

[chop2chip]

Career HR rate 1.00 in the majors. Career HR rate .7 in the minors.

But he's going to have the highest of his professional career just because.

Great logic.

The logic has more to do with the idea that pitchers tend to be more closer to each other in this respect. It's not to say that JT doesnt have the ability to outperform the league average just that he would be an outlier. Projection systems don't deal in outliers well.

[chop2chip]

I think looking at its effectiveness using every player is not getting to my point though. A large enough sample size and almost anything is predictable.

This is wrong. This defies the entire field of statistics.

Unless you mean the ability to predict accurately improves. That then is correct.

[gilesfan]

I think looking at its effectiveness using every player is not getting to my point though. A large enough sample size and almost anything is predictable.

Yeah bc if it's not beneficial to the Braves, it's not correct.

[gilesfan]

Career HR rate 1.00 in the majors. Career HR rate .7 in the minors.

But he's going to have the highest of his professional career just because.

Great logic.

You think the numbers just spit that out "just because?"

[thethe]

This is wrong. This defies the entire field of statistics.

My point is that its difficult to predict an individual player who doesn't have a large major league sample and is young.

An article was posted that looked at the effectiveness of these projection systems when looking at all projections that are made.

My retort is that a large enough sample size and anything is predictable because in essence you are averaging your bad guesses in both directions. This basically means you cannot say that since they were effective at projecting the total population that are are effective in projected player X.

[thethe]

Yeah bc if it's not beneficial to the Braves, it's not correct.

Give me the steamer projection on someone like Degrom and I will bet the house he out performs it.

[gilesfan]

My point is that its difficult to predict an individual player who doesn't have a large major league sample and is young.

An article was posted that looked at the effectiveness of these projection systems when looking at all projections that are made.

My retort is that a large enough sample size and anything is predictable because in essence you are averaging your bad guesses in both directions. This basically means you cannot say that since they were effective at projecting the total population that are are effective in projected player X.

The projections for young players were pretty damn accurate.

In essence you are saying, that despite the studies doing really well, it doesn't pertain to Teheran so that estimate is worthless?

So, what is the possibility that they are wrong on Teheran (and his ERA will be higher)? Is it 50%?

[chop2chip]

My point is that its difficult to predict an individual player who doesn't have a large major league sample and is young.

An article was posted that looked at the effectiveness of these projection systems when looking at all projections that are made.

My retort is that a large enough sample size and anything is predictable because in essence you are averaging your bad guesses in both directions. This basically means you cannot say that since they were effective at projecting the total population that are are effective in projected player X.

That makes more sense.

Projection system spit out the most likely outcome for each player based on previous performance and for most players the most likely outcome is a league average player (hence AVERAGE).

I agree with you that young players are extremely difficult to project. But players with two years of data you get a very broad sense of what they are. Steamer does a decent enough job of giving a sense of what to expect, but only a fool would rule out outperforming or underperforming that projection. It's nearly impossible to know either way.

[chop2chip]

Fans are inherently bullish on players in their own team and bearish on the other teams players. It's what makes being a fan fun. I wish I could be as optimistic as thethe is. I guarantee there isn't a person on this board who gets more utility out of watching sports than him.

[thethe]

The projections for young players were pretty damn accurate.

In essence you are saying, that despite the studies doing really well, it doesn't pertain to Teheran so that estimate is worthless?

So, what is the possibility that they are wrong on Teheran (and his ERA will be higher)? Is it 50%?

Young players and young players with the talent of Tehearn/Wood are not the same thing.

What the percentage is as you asked? I have no way of coming up with a number but I would think that the percentage is much higher that the were too conservative with their projections and that Teheran/Wood will do better than do worse.

[Carp]

The logic has more to do with the idea that pitchers tend to be more closer to each other in this respect. It's not to say that JT doesnt have the ability to outperform the league average just that he would be an outlier. Projection systems don't deal in outliers well.

Yes I understand that. My beef is not necessarily with the projections, but more so Giles for putting so much faith into them.

I completely understand that pitchers have lucky/unlucky seasons sometimes. But giles seems to think it would be some sort of miracle that 2 pitchers that have pitched like top 20 pitchers over the last 2 seasons, might just pitch that way again.

[thethe]

Fans are inherently bullish on players in their own team and bearish on the other teams players. It's what makes being a fan fun. I wish I could be as optimistic as thethe is. I guarantee there isn't a person on this board who gets more utility out of watching sports than him.

I sometimes wish I would like sports less.

[chop2chip]

Young players and young players with the talent of Tehearn/Wood are not the same thing.

What the percentage is as you asked? I have no way of coming up with a number but I would think that the percentage is much higher that the were too conservative with their projections and that Teheran/Wood will do better than do worse.

I would bet money that's is probably pretty close to 50/50 considering these projections are based on weighted averages and regression analysis.

[chop2chip]

Yes I understand that. My beef is not necessarily with the projections, but more so Giles for putting so much faith into them.

I completely understand that pitchers have lucky/unlucky seasons sometimes. But giles seems to think it would be some sort of miracle that 2 pitchers that have pitched like top 20 pitchers over the last 2 seasons, might just pitch that way again.

The law of averages says that Giles is going to be correct more than you.

[gilesfan]

Yes I understand that. My beef is not necessarily with the projections, but more so Giles for putting so much faith into them.

I completely understand that pitchers have lucky/unlucky seasons sometimes. But giles seems to think it would be some sort of miracle that 2 pitchers that have pitched like top 20 pitchers over the last 2 seasons, might just pitch that way again.

Wood threw 77 innings in 2013. Im not sure he's even qualified on innings to say his ERA is top 20.

[gilesfan]

Young players and young players with the talent of Tehearn/Wood are not the same thing.

What the percentage is as you asked? I have no way of coming up with a number but I would think that the percentage is much higher that the were too conservative with their projections and that Teheran/Wood will do better than do worse.

Do you think Teheran and Woods talent hasn' been displayed in their statistics? Do you not think those statistics are taken into account?

[thethe]

Do you think Teheran and Woods talent hasn' been displayed in their statistics? Do you not think those statistics are taken into account?

There statistical profiles are taken into account. If you feel that this best captures the overall talent of a young player then so be it.

[gilesfan]

There statistical profiles are taken into account. If you feel that this best captures the overall talent of a young player then so be it.

Im not even sure what you are talking about here. Do you think these guys are totally different in "statistical profiles" than what they've shown so far?

[emk418]

Getting back on topic....I think we have to trade Gattis this offseason. I don't want to run him out in Lf risking injury and hurting his value. How about Alex Gonzalez or Jake Thompson and Michael Choice for Gattis?

[JohnAdcox]

If a few things break our way, we can finish in 2nd. I firmly believe that.

Like Stanton's arm?