Gattis Traded To Astros (pg. 13)

[dak]

Getting back on topic....I think we have to trade Gattis this offseason. I don't want to run him out in Lf risking injury and hurting his value. How about Alex Gonzalez or Jake Thompson and Michael Choice for Gattis?

I think you're in the right ballpark. Gonzalez and Thompson are good mid-rotation SP prospects. We'd obviously have a hole in the OF if we moved Gattis, but I'd prefer to avoid the Rangers' MLB-ready OFs (Choice, Smolinski, Rua). It would be better to maximize the prospect haul in addition to Gonzalez / Thompson and sign a FA like Chris Denorfia.

[emk418]

I think you're in the right ballpark. Gonzalez and Thompson are good mid-rotation SP prospects. We'd obviously have a hole in the OF if we moved Gattis, but I'd prefer to avoid the Rangers' MLB-ready OFs (Choice, Smolinski, Rua). It would be better to maximize the prospect haul in addition to Gonzalez / Thompson and sign a FA like Chris Denorfia.

I wouldn't mind bringing in Colby Rasmus on a 2 year deal if we trade Gattis.

[dak]

Rasmus looks good on paper, but is a bit of a head case in the clubhouse. Hawk posted a story here a couple weeks ago about his time under Kevin Seitzer as hitting coach, and let's just say that it sounds like both guys were frustrated. He's also the anti-thesis of what the Braves are looking for offensively when it comes to high-contact.

I've seen a couple beat writers from others clubs this winter dance around character-issues with Rasmus in their stories. Guy seems to have quite a reputation.

[Braves1976]

I'd only trade Gattis this off-season if we get an huge offer. Now if Gattis were traded with BJ Upton I would take quite a bit less but I don't see that happening. Further, I would also try batting Freeman clean-up and Gattis third, this way Gattis has some protection to have a stronger first half. Then you trade him halfway through the season when his value is the highest.

[Heyward]

I'd only trade Gattis this off-season if we get an huge offer. Now if Gattis were traded with BJ Upton I would take quite a bit less but I don't see that happening. Further, I would also try batting Freeman clean-up and Gattis third, this way Gattis has some protection to have a stronger first half. Then you trade him halfway through the season when his value is the highest.

I'd trade him now.

He'll get hurt eventually, which hurts his value.

Have to trade him now before his stock plummets.

[Braves1976]

I'd trade him now.

He'll get hurt eventually, which hurts his value.

Have to trade him now before his stock plummets.

Nonsense. But so is a lot of junk you post about Gattis, etc.

[bravesnumberone]

If we trade Gattis, I'd rather just stick Terd out there, quite honestly because I don't see the point in signing free agents when we're giving almost all of our offense away.

[dak]

Hart has been pretty clear that Gattis is not our long-term C, so it's only a matter of time before he's traded.

There was a sense of urgency to trade Jason and Justin this Winter, because their trade value would've dropped if the receiving team was not able to make them a qualifying offer.

We're in a more advantageous bargaining position when it comes to trading Gattis. If a fair offer isn't available now, there is minimal drawback to waiting out a desperate team with an injury in Spring Training or a need at the trade deadline. You just cross your fingers he doesn't get hurt. Worst case, you trade him next Winter. He's a solid player, good insurance at C, and is very marketable to the casual fan.

[Braves1976]

If we trade Gattis, I'd rather just stick Terd out there, quite honestly because I don't see the point in signing free agents when we're giving almost all of our offense away.

There isn't much left on the free agent market anyway. Plus if we're not going to be in the race anyway, I think we should see what we have in Joey T, Hunter, etc.

[Braves1976]

Hart has been pretty clear that Gattis is not our long-term C, so it's only a matter of time before he's traded.

There was a sense of urgency to trade Jason and Justin this Winter, because their trade value would've dropped if the receiving team was not able to make them a qualifying offer.

We're in a more advantageous bargaining position when it comes to trading Gattis. If a fair offer isn't available now, there is minimal drawback to waiting out a desperate team with an injury in Spring Training or a need at the trade deadline. You just cross your fingers he doesn't get hurt. Worst case, you trade him next Winter. He's a solid player, good insurance at C, and is very marketable to the casual fan.

Yep, I pretty much agree.

[cajunrevenge]

I like Gattis but I am worried that he can't physically play defense for a full season and that's why I want him traded. I like the move towards speed but you still need some power in the lineup. Freeman is a great hitter but I don't think he will be a big HR hitter outside of a career year.

[thewupk]

I'd trade him at the deadline to some desperate team in the playoff race.

[nsacpi]

Thats kinda risky considering he could suffer a catastrophic injury any moment.

I'd trade him at the deadline to some desperate team in the playoff race.

[Tapate50]

Bowmans mailbag has some Gattis speculation.

http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article...busy-offseason

[thethe]

There is no way I dump Upton into a Gattis trade. BJ costs the Braves nothing but money for the next two years when we aren't even expecting to win a world series. You get the most that you can get for Gattis and deal with BJ afterwards.

[Tapate50]

There is no way I dump Upton into a Gattis trade. BJ costs the Braves nothing but money for the next two years when we aren't even expecting to win a world series. You get the most that you can get for Gattis and deal with BJ afterwards.

Agree completely

[yeezus]

There is no way I dump Upton into a Gattis trade. BJ costs the Braves nothing but money for the next two years when we aren't even expecting to win a world series. You get the most that you can get for Gattis and deal with BJ afterwards.

I'm at this point, too. No need to hamstring a return on Gattis with BJ. BJ's value can only go higher, and getting rid of him for the next year or two doesn't really matter.

[bravesnumberone]

Best case scenario is BJ has a good year and we either get someone to take him in July or next offseason.

[Carp]

You think the numbers just spit that out "just because?"

I think projections systems are rather arbitrary, yes. They can base them off whatever numbers they want to. That doesn't make them non-arbitrary, as they are still fictional stats (at this point in time anyways). They're fun to look at and discuss. But they are truly no more accurate at this time then Thethe saying "we have 2 top 20 pitchers."

[chop2chip]

I think projections systems are rather arbitrary, yes. They can base them off whatever numbers they want to. That doesn't make them non-arbitrary, as they are still fictional stats. They're fun to look at and discuss. But they are truly no more accurate then Thethe saying "we have 2 top 20 pitchers."

This is wrong. The weights aren't just arbitrarily chosen. They are obtained in a sophisticated way, likely through regression analysis which is very precise and based off thousands of data samples.

The biggest issue with projection systems is they are excellent at predicting the majority of players since the majority tend to play to their averages, but struggle predicting which players will drastically outperform or underperform their averages.

The issue that projection systems have with Julio Teheran is that his underlying stats suggest that he's been overperforming (FIP) so Steamer is predicting that he's going to regress back to what his peripherals suggest.

Steamer isn't being unfair to Julio. It's a model so it's lacks the ability to be bias. If Julio continues to outperform his peripherals then the system will start to incorporate that more and more.