What Hart Hath Wrought

[mfree80]

Our offense was dreadful last year. Just knowing how baseball works I could easily see it being the same as last year. Thats not to say the players on the field are better than the players we had on the field last year. Its just that the performance of that current year (BABIP fluctuations) could lead to a comparable season in production.

This is the problem with using statistical approximations to predict future performance. It leaves out too many of the variables that make up a season. There are so many things that can happen to change the outcome of a play, a game, or a season. Teams are more than just a collection of the individual stats of a bunch of guys.

Teams with average players can become very good teams, and teams with lots of stars can, and often do, turn out to be poor teams... for many different reasons. Please STOP using statistical approximations to state with surety what the Braves will or will not do. Many variables will come into play. Some guys will be better than predicted. Some won't. If the Braves scouting department has done their job, we will see some breakout years from unexpected guys. I am excited to see which ones.

[Dalyn]

Other guys to add to that list who offer us some depth at the fifth starter spot are:

1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Ian Thomas
3. Gus Schlosser
4. Daniel Rodriguez (he would only be used in a dire situation IMO)
5. As [MENTION=7]thethe[/MENTION] mentioned below Hursh could be available in an emergency

Not saying those guys are going to be a solid option by any means, just stating that we have some guys that could eat some innings if the need were to arise. I will say, there is no such thing as having too many starting pitchers, especially #5 type guys who could be had on a minor league deal and who wouldn't require a 40-man roster slot until the time of their call up.

I also think the reason they're considering Russell at that #5 slot or maybe even a long man, is because of how good he was in that "start" against the Phillies and the fact he's shown in the past the ability to get righties and lefties out not because they don't have someone else. Just my opinion.

I won't argue the merits of the 5 you listed (who at best could be counted on for three to five bad innings in a spot start) other than to point out that YOU just said a couple days ago that the team wouldn't give Ian Thomas any meaningful innings and that he was a DFA candidate. I will also point out that Gus Schlosser is no longer with the Braves.

[Braves1976]

Infield defense MAY be better. Chris Johnson had his highest UZR of his career last year, he could easily regress. Simmons should be amazeballs. Freeman will keep being around the same levels. 2B is pretty debatable though, people have this image that our 2B sucked massively last year and they didn't. Our worst defensive 2B was Pastornicky and he could be getting a lot of PT this year. If Gosselin plays, our 2B will be a noticable improvement, likely the same with Peraza but IIRC he spent his whole career on the left side of the diamond, there's often growing pains when you move to the right. If we see a healthy dose of Alberto Callaspo at 2B our 2B defense could be worse than last year. Callaspo is a butcher on his career at 2B, Sampling issues of course but he has a -9.0 UZR/150 and he's been very negative from 2009 on. He's been primarily used at 3B for a reason.

If the Braves are smart and use Callaspo at 3B vs RH and sparingly at 2B our IF defense will be better. Knowing Fredi though, Callaspo will play about 60-70% of games at 2B.

At C I don't know if I can say we are improved. I haven't seen enough from Bethancourt to say he's for sure better than Gattis right now. Down the line he will be, but in 2015, I don't know. Bethancourt still has a lot of room to grow, he's not the Molina that scouts told me he would be. So maybe we're slightly better at C, maybe we're worse at 3B and 2B to counter that though. Potentially our IF defense could be much better if we utilize primarily Peraza and Gosselin at 2B and leave Callaspo to platoon with CJ. That being said, that may be a terrible platoon as Callaspo historically favors hitting from the right side.

I'm more confident in our IF defense not improving than I am in our offense not regressing.

Good point about Callaspo not being good for second base, I have never liked him there. I noted when we signed him that he is really a third baseman that can play occasionally at second, though ideally I'd only use him at third and first. I also agree that this being the case likely means Fredi will play him a lot more at second. Further, I believe we'll also be downgraded at catcher since AJ is likely to play a lot more than the usual back-up catcher.

[thethe]

That's my issue as well. If we got back a top 10 in baseball prospect fo each Justin and Jason, I'd be happy. Then we trade off Kimbrel and Gattis, put the money in the bank long term and we can maybe add 10-20 mil extra down the line. Instead we got a lot of question marks. In a vacuum I'm not 100% opposed to the Jason trade as a player for player trade, I am opposed to it from a fan/marketing standpoint. Jason was our most marketable player and we let him go without top return. We'll likely make out better long term, but sometimes trades have to be about more than just the player value. No matter how good Teixeira was and with prospect flameout, we were gonna get raped in that trade because Texas held Teixeira in a higher value. We sold Jason off for the first good package we received. It's likely to work out from a production standpoint, but it's not a trade that builds confidence in a franchise. Selling off one of your best players doesn't look good. That's what teams like the Marlins, As, etc. do.

Shelby Miller is better than a to p10 prospect.

[thethe]

So... You'd be okay with a top 10 prospect that very well could never work out... But you're not happy with Shelby Miller... An already proven MLB pitcher who was a top 10 prospect... Hasn't hit his prime yet and has 6 years of control... Okay, that makes sense

No sense at all. There is so much Heyward blinders this offseason its maddening.

[chop2chip]

Shelby Miller is better than a to p10 prospect.

Which top 10 prospect could we get for him?

[thethe]

Which top 10 prospect could we get for him?

Why would we trade him for one? "Value" for some reason fluctuates way too much with a young player. Remember how down people were on Teheran? That changed quickly.

[Braves1976]

I won't argue the merits of the 5 you listed (who at best could be counted on for three to five bad innings in a spot start) other than to point out that YOU just said a couple days ago that the team wouldn't give Ian Thomas any meaningful innings and that he was a DFA candidate. I will also point out that Gus Schlosser is no longer with the Braves.

I would note on Ian Thomas that he had issues with injury last year and if healthy he should bounce back. Further, Thomas shouldn't be a DFA candidate in that case and could prove a legit option to start again down the line. He was a very good starter in AA the year before making the Majors. I would not be so fast to rule out him reaching that level again as a starter or lefty relief option. Gus is also back with the Braves, he signed a minor league deal to come back not long after being let go. The Braves just wanted to take him off the 40-man roster due needing to free up space.

[Heyward]

That's my issue as well. If we got back a top 10 in baseball prospect fo each Justin and Jason, I'd be happy. Then we trade off Kimbrel and Gattis, put the money in the bank long term and we can maybe add 10-20 mil extra down the line. Instead we got a lot of question marks. In a vacuum I'm not 100% opposed to the Jason trade as a player for player trade, I am opposed to it from a fan/marketing standpoint. Jason was our most marketable player and we let him go without top return. We'll likely make out better long term, but sometimes trades have to be about more than just the player value. No matter how good Teixeira was and with prospect flameout, we were gonna get raped in that trade because Texas held Teixeira in a higher value. We sold Jason off for the first good package we received. It's likely to work out from a production standpoint, but it's not a trade that builds confidence in a franchise. Selling off one of your best players doesn't look good. That's what teams like the Marlins, As, etc. do.

First, we were never getting back a top 10 prospect with both Jason/Justin set to hit FA next winter.

Teams arent gonna trade those types of prospects for rentals.

The returns they got were fine.

And laughable to think we make the playoffs next year with a few tweaks.

[Heyward]

So... You'd be okay with a top 10 prospect that very well could never work out... But you're not happy with Shelby Miller... An already proven MLB pitcher who was a top 10 prospect... Hasn't hit his prime yet and has 6 years of control... Okay, that makes sense

Miller is a good return, he pitched well in September.

But he has 4 years of control, not 6 but people overrate the return we should have gotten for 1 year of Heyward

[Dalyn]

I would note on Ian Thomas that he had issues with injury last year and if healthy he should bounce back. Further, Thomas shouldn't be a DFA candidate in that case and could prove a legit option to start again down the line. He was a very good starter in AA the year before making the Majors. I would not be so fast to rule out him reaching that level again as a starter or lefty relief option. Gus is also back with the Braves, he signed a minor league deal to come back not long after being let go. The Braves just wanted to take him off the 40-man roster due needing to free up space.

Yeah. I see now that we brought him back on the 15th. I missed that. Thanks! Glad we did, as I think he's a decent long reliever option. I also don't think Thomas should be a DFA candidate, but I would not say he is a legit option to start. Lefty reliever? Definitely.

[Dalyn]

I will say Miller looks like a great return after the Upton trade. Like him better than any of the players we picked up in that one.

[cajunrevenge]

Shelby Miller is better than a to p10 prospect.

He was a top 10 prospect at one point. You know the hype was high when he puts up a 3.40 era in his first 2 full years and that's considered a disappointment.

[Knucksie]

Wasn't Shelby Miller the next highly-regarded young Cards pitcher after Wacha Flocka Flame?

[thethe]

He was a top 10 prospect at one point. You know the hype was high when he puts up a 3.40 era in his first 2 full years and that's considered a disappointment.

Yup, the idea that the return for 1 year of Heyward wasn't enough is ludicrous. By all accounts the Cards gave up more than most would if you believe GM rumblings.

[thethe]

I will say Miller looks like a great return after the Upton trade. Like him better than any of the players we picked up in that one.

if the kid comes back healthy he might be even better than Miller. Sure, its a big IF but fact of the matter is that there was no chance we were getting him had he never gotten hurt.

[zbhargrove]

Wasn't Shelby Miller the next highly-regarded young Cards pitcher after Wacha Flocka Flame?

Miller was a much more highly regarded prospect than Wacha... maybe he should not have been, but he was. I don't think Wacha was ever even the top prospect in the organization and never was in the top 50 category nationally. Miller was a Top 5 nationally at least one year, and top 10 at least 2 years.

[Dalyn]

if the kid comes back healthy he might be even better than Miller. Sure, its a big IF but fact of the matter is that there was no chance we were getting him had he never gotten hurt.

Jenkins or Fried? Sounds more like Fried.

[zitothebrave]

So... You'd be okay with a top 10 prospect that very well could never work out... But you're not happy with Shelby Miller... An already proven MLB pitcher who was a top 10 prospect... Hasn't hit his prime yet and has 6 years of control... Okay, that makes sense

Yes

1. All Shelby Miller has proven is he hasn't been a great pitcher so far. Career FIP- of 110. His ERA has been decent but that's largely boosted off one season.

2. He's not undercontrol for 6 years, he's under control for 4.

So yes I take someone who could potentially be a start for 6 years, over someone who's been average and we have under control for 4 years. Don't get me wrong, I don't despise Miller, IMO for Heyward and Walden we should have gotten Miller and their top prospect, like Alex Reyes of Stephen Piscotty.

[zitothebrave]

if the kid comes back healthy he might be even better than Miller. Sure, its a big IF but fact of the matter is that there was no chance we were getting him had he never gotten hurt.

Tyrell Jenkins will wind up being a reliever. He's way too wild. Live arm, but that usually works better in the pen. Relivers can walk 4 per 9, starters can't.