What Hart Hath Wrought

[nsacpi]

There are probably one or two moves remaining from the front office this off-season. But we have a broad idea of what the moves this off-season mean for wins and losses.

Collectively, the moves from Hart and company this off-season have reduced expected wins for 2015 by 5-6, while increasing expected wins for the subsequent half dozen seasons by a similar amount (or approximately 1 per season).

For 2015 our position for on the win curve is now probably in the 75-80 win range. If we had held on to Heyward and Justin Upton (and not signed Markakis and used a replacement level pitcher instead of Miller in the rotation) our position on the win curve would have been in the 80-85 win range.

Of course the games remain to be played. The above are expectations--my own, which are informed by but somewhat more optimistic that those from Fangraphs and Steamer (whose projections for Wood, Teheran, Minor and Gattis look a bit low to me).

We have had plenty of threads discussing whether Hart was wise or not in making these moves. Hopefully, in this thread we can focus the discussion on their actual implications for expected wins and losses (in 2015 and beyond), without taking a "partisan" viewpoint as to the wisdom of the moves that have been made this off-season.

[Dalyn]

It's important to remember that the 5-6 losses added in both 2015 and 2016 will result in double that combined number in 2017. Any additional losses Fredi can wrangle from the jaws of victory in 2015 and 2016 will push that team even higher. I expect it will be a 120-win team before all is said and done.

[CyYoung31]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up having a better offense than last year. But it definitely won't be as good as had we kept Heyward and Justin, and still probably won't be very good.

Really, we should have just traded Justin and extended Heyward. Heyward is a/the face of the franchise along with being our best player, and you need someone like that going into a new ballpark. It's going to hurt us all-around.

[weso1]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we end up having a better offense than last year. But it definitely won't be as good as had we kept Heyward and Justin, and still probably won't be very good.

Really, we should have just traded Justin and extended Heyward. Heyward is a/the face of the franchise along with being our best player, and you need someone like that going into a new ballpark. It's going to hurt us all-around.

Honestly though Heyward's best selling point was RF defense. How sexy is that when you really think about it? Great he done ran to open field and made a catch several guys wouldn't have made... So marketable. I get the stats show its value but at the same time, where's the marketing value in that? Heyward's true marketing value was in his hustle and likability. Markakis will provide that as supposedly O's fans loved him for that crap. Plus let's be honest he's a good looking dude. So if you're talking about face of the franchise and marketability you're barking up the wrong tree.

Freeman was/is the face of the franchise because he can hit. Face of the franchise is not RF defense. Simmons is closer than Heyward was.

[weso1]

I would love it if the Braves would just invest the money for the next few years and not make anymore significant moves. With that in mind that's incredibly naive. Whatever money the Braves don't spend ole Malone will put that crap in his buy more land fund. Not that I don't blame him as I would do the same if I owned the Dodgers for example. Well maybe I'd spend the money on vols paraphernalia.

So if I'm Hart I don't know what the hell I do. Maybe spend as much money as possible on scouting and international signings. Maybe just put that crap down on Upton's contract without Malone's knowledge. Create a crap contract fund.

[CyYoung31]

On another note, I do expect our pitching to be outstanding. My concern is that we still lack meaningful depth in that area.

[CyYoung31]

Honestly though Heyward's best selling point was RF defense. How sexy is that when you really think about it? Great he done ran to open field and made a catch several guys wouldn't have made... So marketable. I get the stats show its value but at the same time, where's the marketing value in that? Heyward's true marketing value was in his hustle and likability. Markakis will provide that as supposedly O's fans loved him for that crap. Plus let's be honest he's a good looking dude. So if you're talking about face of the franchise and marketability you're barking up the wrong tree.

Freeman was/is the face of the franchise because he can hit. Face of the franchise is not RF defense. Simmons is closer than Heyward was.

Heyward can hit too. As well as being better at base running and defense than anyone else. He's also marketable to the black community and a leader.

[weso1]

Heyward can hit too. As well as being better at base running and defense than anyone else. He's also marketable to the black community and a leader.

Markakis is supposedly a leader as well. Base running is just as boring as RF defense if you don't steal a ton of bases.

I needs stats on his actual effect on the black community. Sounds reasonable but what are the actual effects? But with that in mind Braves are moving closer to suburban Atlanta.

I think maybe we're overrating his marketing value based on legitimate, but not necessarily marketable stats.

[thethe]

Any buzz Heyward had was still from his rookie season. Its not like the Braves were drawing capacity crowds with him on the team the last 5 years. Fans will forget quickly if Markakis hits. If he doesn't then fans will be calling for Harts head because Heyward is elsewhere.

[Runnin]

Heyward can hit too.

He murders the low and away changeup if he's looking for it but can't put solid wood on anything else. And his numbers, puny as they are, are buoyed by speed.

It's a travesty that this late into his career he hasn't made a serious effort to shorten-up and tighten-up his swing. All that untapped potential. With his natural strength and a Pete Rose type swing could hit 40 HRs.

I'd probably screw him up but if I was his hitting coach I'd have him hitting soft toss everyday one handed, just his left hand. And I'd also have him taking some BP right handed just to shore up the fundamentals and you never know what it might develop into.

[thethe]

He murders the low and away changeup if he's looking for it but can't put solid wood on anything else. And his numbers, puny as they are, are buoyed by speed.

It's a travesty that this late into his career he hasn't made a serious effort to shorten-up and tighten-up his swing. All that untapped potential. With his natural strength and a Pete Rose type swing could hit 40 HRs.

I'd probably screw him up but if I was his hitting coach I'd have him hitting soft toss everyday one handed, just his left hand. And I'd also have him taking some BP right handed just to shore up the fundamentals and you never know what it might develop into.

Its perplexing to me that most of the people on this forum seem to believe Heyward is a good hitter. He is a slightly above average hitter with potential. At his age I'm just not sure if he is going to realize that though or else he would have been a better hitter by now. Not many Jose Bautistas in the history of baseball.

Ultimately, I think the 2015 Braves will win at least as many games as the 2014 Braves because baseball is just like that. I expect the starting pitching to carry us yet again and with some improvements from dreadful seasons of CJ/BJ we should be mildly entertaining on the uptick for the following season.

[nsacpi]

Who thinks Heyward is a great hitter? His ZIPS projection for 2015 is .269/.348/.424. Some people might think this is a little low. Some might think it is a little high. No one thinks he is dramatically different from that.

[yeezus]

Its perplexing to me that most of the people on this forum seem to believe Heyward is a good hitter. He is a slightly above average hitter with potential. At his age I'm just not sure if he is going to realize that though or else he would have been a better hitter by now. Not many Jose Bautistas in the history of baseball.

Comparing Heyward to Bautista is dumb on a lot of levels.

[yeezus]

"At this age" when talking about Heyward. LMAO. He's 25. And shown a ton, and has produced a ton.

[thethe]

Comparing Heyward to Bautista is dumb on a lot of levels.

I'm just saying that I believe Heyward is what he is. He isn't going to just become a better than slightly above average hitter. If he was going to be a better hitter he would have shown it more consistently at this point in his career.

I was using Bautista as an example of a player that has that breakthrough later in his career and just how rare it is.

[The Chosen One]

Been saying it all offseason since the craziness began. Fredi is going to have the managerial season of his career, perhaps one for the ages in franchise lore.

He'll also probably get snubbed again.

[Dalyn]

Been saying it all offseason since the craziness began. Fredi is going to have the managerial season of his career, perhaps one for the ages in franchise lore.

He'll also probably get snubbed again.

There is some logic behind this. Reduce the roster to a bunch of bad decisions and no decision is a bad one.

[Braves1976]

There is no way our pitching will be better if our defense at multiple positions is worse. If we go with an outfield of Markakis-BJ-Gattis that will hurt all pitchers numbers, not just our fly ball pitchers that it will effect the most. Plus if AJ catches a lot more than a typical back-up, that will hurt also because he is a terrible pitch framer, etc. And I know Laird was bad in that area too, but Laird was also stronger in other areas defensively and good influence on our young staff.

To sum it up, these are some serious downgrades on defense in the outfield and possibly at catcher too depending on how much AJ catches. If this is the defense we go with there is no way our pitching staff has the hot start it did last year, IMO.

[NinersSBChamps]

Markakis is marketable in the honkey community.

[NinersSBChamps]

Who is AJ?