How Do We Compete in 2017?

[MadduxFanII]

Simple, serious, honest question, if coming from a place of skepticism. What is the scenario, what needs to happen, for us to be competitive in 2017 when we open the new park? Not win the World Series (we all know there's no such thing as a team that's guaranteed to win a World Series), but to be competitive for the NL East title. In order for that to happen, what has to happen in the next couple years?

[gilesfan]

good question. I have no idea.

[thethe]

Teheran/Wood need to stay healthy. Those two could be legit top 10 pitchers.

[VirginiaBrave]

We add offense after Uggla is off the books. That's how. The thought did occur to me maybe Liberty is fixin' to sell the franchise. Think about it.

[MadduxFanII]

I'll explain why I'm asking, even though I do mean this as a legit question.

So far as I can tell, in order for us to be a legit contender in the East come 2017, we need:

1. Absolutely no bad luck with our existing young starting pitchers- no injuries, no regression
2. Miller needs to, at the very least, solidify himself as a solid, middle-of-the-rotation starter and hopefully improve
3. Good luck with the prospect pitchers we've acquired- Foltynewicz and Jenkins in particular. They need to stay healthy and keep moving up the ladder
4. Kimbrel has to stay healthy and stave off any further decline in command
5. Freeman has to be more like the 2013 Freddie and less like the 2014 model- he certainly can't take a step back
6. Simmons has to either improve offensively or remain at such an otherworldly defensive level that he merits an everyday job
7. One of Jace Peterson or Rio Ruiz has to grab the third base job
8. Peraza has to develop into a solid second baseman
9. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play left field
10. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play center (we'll put "BJ Upton regains his stroke" as "coming out of nowhere")
11. Markakis has to remain a solid everyday player through his early-30's
12. Bethancourt either has to hit a little or really be as extraordinary defensively as the organization insists he is

And I have to say, that just...that seems like a lot of things have to go right. And there doesn't seem to be much margin for error. So I'm wondering if I'm overlooking something.

[zitothebrave]

No you've basically hit the nail on the head MFII

Even with all that we will probably be a WC at best team. Mets are on a positive upswing, Marlins may be on an upswing, and Nationals are strong and have th efunds to keep their most important players.

[goldfly]

[gilesfan]

I'll explain why I'm asking, even though I do mean this as a legit question.

So far as I can tell, in order for us to be a legit contender in the East come 2017, we need:

1. Absolutely no bad luck with our existing young starting pitchers- no injuries, no regression
2. Miller needs to, at the very least, solidify himself as a solid, middle-of-the-rotation starter and hopefully improve
3. Good luck with the prospect pitchers we've acquired- Foltynewicz and Jenkins in particular. They need to stay healthy and keep moving up the ladder
4. Kimbrel has to stay healthy and stave off any further decline in command
5. Freeman has to be more like the 2013 Freddie and less like the 2014 model- he certainly can't take a step back
6. Simmons has to either improve offensively or remain at such an otherworldly defensive level that he merits an everyday job
7. One of Jace Peterson or Rio Ruiz has to grab the third base job
8. Peraza has to develop into a solid second baseman
9. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play left field
10. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play center (we'll put "BJ Upton regains his stroke" as "coming out of nowhere")
11. Markakis has to remain a solid everyday player through his early-30's
12. Bethancourt either has to hit a little or really be as extraordinary defensively as the organization insists he is

And I have to say, that just...that seems like a lot of things have to go right. And there doesn't seem to be much margin for error. So I'm wondering if I'm overlooking something.

I think you pretty much nailed it. And one of the largest concerns is we've almost always had very good position prospects that were expected to produce in the majors. There was also a couple guys you could point to that were likely to be major leaguers. There is no position player I point to in 2017 and say "man, we got a really good hitter" except for Freeman.

[50PoundHead]

I'll explain why I'm asking, even though I do mean this as a legit question.

So far as I can tell, in order for us to be a legit contender in the East come 2017, we need:

1. Absolutely no bad luck with our existing young starting pitchers- no injuries, no regression
2. Miller needs to, at the very least, solidify himself as a solid, middle-of-the-rotation starter and hopefully improve
3. Good luck with the prospect pitchers we've acquired- Foltynewicz and Jenkins in particular. They need to stay healthy and keep moving up the ladder
4. Kimbrel has to stay healthy and stave off any further decline in command
5. Freeman has to be more like the 2013 Freddie and less like the 2014 model- he certainly can't take a step back
6. Simmons has to either improve offensively or remain at such an otherworldly defensive level that he merits an everyday job
7. One of Jace Peterson or Rio Ruiz has to grab the third base job
8. Peraza has to develop into a solid second baseman
9. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play left field
10. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play center (we'll put "BJ Upton regains his stroke" as "coming out of nowhere")
11. Markakis has to remain a solid everyday player through his early-30's
12. Bethancourt either has to hit a little or really be as extraordinary defensively as the organization insists he is

And I have to say, that just...that seems like a lot of things have to go right. And there doesn't seem to be much margin for error. So I'm wondering if I'm overlooking something.

That about sums it up. I think Albies could move quickly, but there's not much else in terms of hitting prospects in the system prior to the acquisition of Ruiz and the Petersons.

I think the big thing about acquiring all the pitching prospects is that we were woefully thin prior to the moves and the old rule of thumb is that you need 10 prospects per solid major league pitcher. I think that overstates the case a bit, but we should have solid rotations at each minor league stop next year, which gets us back to the mentality when we were a top-tier minor league system.

Hart is rolling the dice. I don't think anyone can dispute that regardless of how one feels about the moves. Health and successful development are going to be huge keys.

[GovClintonTyree]

I'll explain why I'm asking, even though I do mean this as a legit question.

So far as I can tell, in order for us to be a legit contender in the East come 2017, we need:

1. Absolutely no bad luck with our existing young starting pitchers- no injuries, no regression
2. Miller needs to, at the very least, solidify himself as a solid, middle-of-the-rotation starter and hopefully improve
3. Good luck with the prospect pitchers we've acquired- Foltynewicz and Jenkins in particular. They need to stay healthy and keep moving up the ladder
4. Kimbrel has to stay healthy and stave off any further decline in command
5. Freeman has to be more like the 2013 Freddie and less like the 2014 model- he certainly can't take a step back
6. Simmons has to either improve offensively or remain at such an otherworldly defensive level that he merits an everyday job
7. One of Jace Peterson or Rio Ruiz has to grab the third base job
8. Peraza has to develop into a solid second baseman
9. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play left field
10. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play center (we'll put "BJ Upton regains his stroke" as "coming out of nowhere")
11. Markakis has to remain a solid everyday player through his early-30's
12. Bethancourt either has to hit a little or really be as extraordinary defensively as the organization insists he is

And I have to say, that just...that seems like a lot of things have to go right. And there doesn't seem to be much margin for error. So I'm wondering if I'm overlooking something.

If you do the math on our pitching, we've actually got some attrition built in with about nine quality starters. And you can actually see a path with the infield, as there are a few ways that could go and be productive.

Where we have no answers is at catcher and outfield. We've treated those positions very cavalierly. I was thrilled when we developed Heyward and traded for the good Upton because of all those cobbled-together outfields. Back to the drawing board there.

And catcher, well, we just ****ed ourselves big time there. This dude can't hit and isn't going to. I'd say he's a catch and throw guy, but he's not even that, from what I saw.

So I agree, that's a lot of holes to plug between now and then. And unlikely we can do all that.

[nsacpi]

I think a lot will turn on the pitchers we've acquired. Miller, Jenkins, Fried, Viz, Banuelos, Foltynewicz, Sanchez.

Put that with what we already had in house and will still be under team control in 2017: Minor, Teheran, Wood, Hale, Hursh, Sims, Parsons, Grosser, Martin, Thomas, Cabrera, Williams Perez, Povse, Sobotka.

There is the potential for having a surplus of pitching we can use to acquire some hitters. But we have to keep in mind the attrition rate for pitching prospects is very high. And none of the guys we acquired right now would be ranked way up on prospects lists. Foltynewicz is probably the highest rated one and my guess he will be in the 40-50 range on BA's list. That's not bad. But a lot of guys ranked in that range don't make it. Randall Delgado for example was in that range at one point.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'll explain why I'm asking, even though I do mean this as a legit question.

So far as I can tell, in order for us to be a legit contender in the East come 2017, we need:

1. Absolutely no bad luck with our existing young starting pitchers- no injuries, no regression
2. Miller needs to, at the very least, solidify himself as a solid, middle-of-the-rotation starter and hopefully improve
3. Good luck with the prospect pitchers we've acquired- Foltynewicz and Jenkins in particular. They need to stay healthy and keep moving up the ladder
4. Kimbrel has to stay healthy and stave off any further decline in command
5. Freeman has to be more like the 2013 Freddie and less like the 2014 model- he certainly can't take a step back
6. Simmons has to either improve offensively or remain at such an otherworldly defensive level that he merits an everyday job
7. One of Jace Peterson or Rio Ruiz has to grab the third base job
8. Peraza has to develop into a solid second baseman
9. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play left field
10. Someone has to come out of nowhere or be acquired to play center (we'll put "BJ Upton regains his stroke" as "coming out of nowhere")
11. Markakis has to remain a solid everyday player through his early-30's
12. Bethancourt either has to hit a little or really be as extraordinary defensively as the organization insists he is

And I have to say, that just...that seems like a lot of things have to go right. And there doesn't seem to be much margin for error. So I'm wondering if I'm overlooking something.

This is how I see it:

Braves go after Dexter Fowler as FA next year for CF. Bethancourt becomes league average behind the plate with the bat and becomes what everyone thinks he can be defensively. Peraza takes over at 2B and becomes a better than average 2B. Johnson rebounds at 3B allowing him to be traded and either Ruiz or Peterson pan out there and provide 20-30 hr power while hitting .260 or better. Markakis doesn't decline too much. The Braves find a right handed thumper for LF going into 2017 as a FA. Moncada might be an answer if the Braves sign him but I just don't see that.

You have to believe that the Braves will try to position themselves to make a splash going into 2017 via the FA market (big time LF bat or ACE level pitcher) or through trade to build excitement.

CF Fowler
2B Peraza
LF Big time RH left field bat or Moncada
1B Freeman
3B Peterson/Ruiz
RF Markakis
SS Simmons
C Bethancourt

SP: Teheran, Wood, Miller, Foltynewicz, FA SP
RP: Kimbrel, Simmons, Vizcaino, Banuelos, Hursh, Sanchez (probably will have a couple of signings for LH and RH reliever in the pen)

[mossy]

I think we end up trading our stockpile (or some of it) for young hitting talent in the next year then hope they all pan out.

I've been rather harsh on the moves, and low on the team. If we struggle, Kimbrel and maybe even Freeman should be traded for a great bounty. 2017 doesn't have to be THE year after all. If 2018 or 19 are it, I'll take it.

We've been spoiled so long, that something in the laws of life was out to get us.

1995
Division titles (always a chance to play in postseason)
Hall of Famer's like John, Tommy, Greg, Cox, and soon Chipper.....
TBS, Skip, Pete, Ernie, they made every game worth listening to.

I was feeling bitter about all this until I found a photo album of my grandfather. There were some photos of us going to games in the 80's. Dale Murphy was the only reason to show up. But, we still had a great time together win or lose. Most of the games I attended were when we owned the cellar, but I don't have one bad memory of that time.

Let's take a step back. Next few years could be bumpy, but life goes on. I'm gonna do my best to enjoy it, win or lose. Call me out if I forget! :D

[Heyward]

This is how I see it:

Braves go after Dexter Fowler as FA next year for CF. Bethancourt becomes league average behind the plate with the bat and becomes what everyone thinks he can be defensively. Peraza takes over at 2B and becomes a better than average 2B. Johnson rebounds at 3B allowing him to be traded and either Ruiz or Peterson pan out there and provide 20-30 hr power while hitting .260 or better. Markakis doesn't decline too much. The Braves find a right handed thumper for LF going into 2017 as a FA. Moncada might be an answer if the Braves sign him but I just don't see that.

You have to believe that the Braves will try to position themselves to make a splash going into 2017 via the FA market (big time LF bat or ACE level pitcher) or through trade to build excitement.

CF Fowler
2B Peraza
LF Big time RH left field bat or Moncada
1B Freeman
3B Peterson/Ruiz
RF Markakis
SS Simmons
C Bethancourt

SP: Teheran, Wood, Miller, Foltynewicz, FA SP
RP: Kimbrel, Simmons, Vizcaino, Banuelos, Hursh, Sanchez (probably will have a couple of signings for LH and RH reliever in the pen)

We've stock-piled a TON of SP, i dont see us signing any big name SP.

If we do, it will be a big-name hitter in 2017.

Fowler makes sense though.

[zitothebrave]

Simple, serious, honest question, if coming from a place of skepticism. What is the scenario, what needs to happen, for us to be competitive in 2017 when we open the new park? Not win the World Series (we all know there's no such thing as a team that's guaranteed to win a World Series), but to be competitive for the NL East title. In order for that to happen, what has to happen in the next couple years?

Pitching prospects have to shake out. If say 3 of the guys we brought in work out we can trade Wood, Minor, and Miller for position talent.

If they fail, we're boned thoroughly.

[GovClintonTyree]

Simple, serious, honest question, if coming from a place of skepticism. What is the scenario, what needs to happen, for us to be competitive in 2017 when we open the new park? Not win the World Series (we all know there's no such thing as a team that's guaranteed to win a World Series), but to be competitive for the NL East title. In order for that to happen, what has to happen in the next couple years?

The plan must be, since we've now got 17 starters and are going to finish 36th in OPS, that we develop talented young pitching, which we have a knack for, and trade the extras to other teams for position players (especially outfielders) who have OPSes above .700.

In the meantime, this is nuclear winter. I'm going to focus on my hometown Mariners, who are fun to follow and watch.

Y'know, Frank Wren made some bad moves, and apparently was a dick, but he won. He won 190 games in 2012-13, 370 from 2010-2013. I don't think this was necessary or productive. Candidly, I don't care how our high A team looks or where our farm system was rated. (It was low, incidentally, because the good ones had all graduated to Atlanta, not because we were doing a poor job). I care about the Atlanta Braves. And they were about a .370 leadoff CF away from making a deep run in the playoffs.

I think it's great that were able to pay our Liberty Media parent a fat dividend with all the payroll we've saved. Attendance will be cut in half, and they'll push the reset button in two years, and hopefully it will all work.

In the meantime, I'm going to go do something fun with my precious free time. And following this team isn't fun.

[chop2chip]

Is there any place besides this board that is reporting such a signing is even remotely likely?

Baseball America has cited us as a potential suitor.

But the Braves are nothing more than a dark horse. But it's not crazy to imagine it. Oakland got Cespedes when everyone thought for sure he was going to one of the big dogs.

[Julio3000]

Baseball America has cited us as a potential suitor.

But the Braves are nothing more than a dark horse. But it's not crazy to imagine it. Oakland got Cespedes when everyone thought for sure he was going to one of the big dogs.

Cespedes decided between the Marlins and A's. Also in the ring were the Orioles, White Sox, Cubs, and Tigers. Bigger wallets than the A's, for sure, but not the Yanks, Red Sox, or Dodgers. The A's signed for Cespedes for an $8M/Y commitment over 4 years. Whoever signs Moncada will have to write a a couple of HUGE checks right off the bat.

It's not crazy to imagine it, but it's got to be considered a Hail Mary at best. If Moncada gets $30-50M in bonus money, as he is expected to, the post-tax cost is going to run close to double that amount.

The Yanks, Sox, and Dodgers have money, commitment from ownership, and the ability to eat an expensive mistake (insert Laird/Harang joke here). The Braves, IMO, do not. It's certainly a possibility, but it seems an extremely remote one.

[dak]

It's not crazy to imagine it, but it's got to be considered a Hail Mary at best. If Moncada gets $30-50M in bonus money, as he is expected to, the post-tax cost is going to run close to double that amount.

I agree that Moncada is a Hail Mary. <5% chance we get him. The range I see most often is $30-40m for bonus ($60-80m with 100% penalty). Then you still need to pay for his arbitration years, which could bring the cost to more like $100m over 6 years. I think the market for Cuban players may have jumped the shark at this point. Moncada's floor is an everyday regular from what I hear, and he has the potential to be a franchise player. Makes you wonder what Bryce Harper could have gotten under this International system and if it would have been worth it.

[sturg33]

If you think he's a stud - then you do it.

$100M over 6 years is cheaper than any established MLB stud on FA market