Nick Markakis' defense rated favorably by Inside Edge fielding metric

[dak]

Fascinating article on Fangrpahs today on defensive metrics, with an emphasis on how to interpret Inside Edge results . . . a fairly new system with more of a human element. Among other things, the article suggests that Nick Markakis' lackluster defensive numbers using the DRS and UZR metrics might be explained in large part by poor defensive positioning.

Quick description of Inside Edge system . . .

"Inside Edge provides FanGraphs with the number of plays a defender should make given a range of possible chances. Inside Edge watches each play multiple times and grades the difficulty of the play. Here is their explanation for how they collect the data. Inside Edge’s baseball experts include many former professional and college players. Every play is carefully reviewed, often more than once. It is not uncommon for IE scouts to review certain plays together in order to reach a consensus on the defensive play rating. IE also performs a thorough post game scrubbing process before the data is made official."

Markakis rates consistently above average in the metric the author has derived from Inside Edge data . . .

"Season: PMR, chances
2012: 101, 21
2013: 117, 34
2014: 126, 62
Overall: 119, 117

Comparison: The PMR values are almost in line with his Fan’s Scouting Report. Could it be that Markakis is out of position to make common plays for a right fielder? The team could of had him shading over to center field to help Adam Jones. Maybe the Braves think they can better position Markakis to produce like an above average defending outfielder."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which...e-supposed-to/

[weso1]

Interesting OP. And just to add to it by asking a question. Do advanced defensive statistics take into account a fielder's ability to keep players from going from first to third and from second to home? Not necessarily looking at assists, but just how often base runners choose to take the extra base.

[Knucksie]

Do advanced defensive statistics take into account a fielder's ability to keep players from going to first to third and from second to home?

Doesn't really matter because nobody who regularly uses the expression, "advanced metrics," would even be prepared to explain it in an ordinary conversation.

[Tapate50]

Ridiculous. I've been told by our self appointed experts here that he moves like a seal out of water in right

[zitothebrave]

Interesting OP. And just to add to it by asking a question. Do advanced defensive statistics take into account a fielder's ability to keep players from going from first to third and from second to home? Not necessarily looking at assists, but just how often base runners choose to take the extra base.

Doesn't really matter because nobody who regularly uses the expression, "advanced metrics," would even be prepared to explain it in an ordinary conversation.

Actually DRS does factor that in. It's not an easy calculation but it does factor in reducing runners. It's usually factored into the "arm" part of the calculation IIRC. I think UZR has updated to include that as well.

[zitothebrave]

FWIW the noise on Markakis's plays I think does factor into his park. If you've ever been to Camden Yards it has an extreme RF wall for better or worse. He could have positioning issues, but that wouldn't explain why he was a positive defender when he came up and wasn't later, Park didn't change. Maybe tehy did shade him over to cover Adam Jones. Who knows.

[Tapate50]

FWIW the noise on Markakis's plays I think does factor into his park. If you've ever been to Camden Yards it has an extreme RF wall for better or worse. He could have positioning issues, but that wouldn't explain why he was a positive defender when he came up and wasn't later, Park didn't change. Maybe tehy did shade him over to cover Adam Jones. Who knows.

Well for all offseason you have known. You have acted like the defensive expert on him because "I have a friend that watches every Orioles game".

[zitothebrave]

Well for all offseason you have known. You have acted like the defensive expert on him because "I have a friend that watches every Orioles game".

I do, and he has noted a failing in his range. Maybe Atlanta is good at covering that up so he's more 2014 Markakis less 2009-2013 Markakis. but just a hunch, that probably won't happen. Maybe it will, who knows, but this much will be true, we didn't "sign a gold glover to replace a gold glover" in the sense that you won't notice a difference between Jason and Nick, there's a gulf between the 2 defensively.

[Tapate50]

I do, and he has noted a failing in his range. Maybe Atlanta is good at covering that up so he's more 2014 Markakis less 2009-2013 Markakis. but just a hunch, that probably won't happen. Maybe it will, who knows, but this much will be true, we didn't "sign a gold glover to replace a gold glover" in the sense that you won't notice a difference between Jason and Nick, there's a gulf between the 2 defensively.

Well that's a dumb statement . You can replace Markakis' name with just about anyone and it will pretty much still be true. So why make it?

Besides the statement about replacing a gold glover with a gold glover is actually true.

[thewupk]

Well that's a dumb statement . You can replace Markakis' name with just about anyone and it will pretty much still be true. So why make it?

Besides the statement about replacing a gold glover with a gold glover is actually true.

It's dumb to some people. However there is a vast majority that don't see a difference in 'gold glove defense is gold glove defense'. Heyward has a gold glove. Markakis does too. So they must be the same right? That is what the average fan (who makes up most of the fanbases) will think. Just like they think that a 30 homerun hitter is a 30 homerun hitter. Without taking into account all the other things that go into making a hitter productive or not. I believe the vast majority of fans (people who buy tickets) don't care/know about advanced metrics so they probably won't 'see' a difference between the two. And that's likely what Hart was aiming for. It was a move to not anger most of the people who buy tickets.

[zitothebrave]

Well that's a dumb statement . You can replace Markakis' name with just about anyone and it will pretty much still be true. So why make it?

Besides the statement about replacing a gold glover with a gold glover is actually true.

Not true at all, over the last 3 years, 12 people have the qualified innings for RF, from as low as 2800 innings to as high as 4200 innings. Markakis is 3rd from last in UZR, UZR 150, and tied for second in DRS so on perccentage aggregate there are about 75% of the RFs in baseball who can say they have a better case than Markakis for defensive ability. Essentially the Braves are banking on advanced Metrics being wrong, if the metrics are right, we'll be boned because defense peaks early (as Markakis's career shows) Markakis probably drifts to the worst defensive RF in baseball as I don't think Werth will be spending too much more time in RF, and Torii Hunter can't have that many years left in him. BTW those 2 are 2 more great examples as defense peaking early as they used to be quite good defenders before losinga few steps.

[Tapate50]

It's dumb to some people. However there is a vast majority that don't see a difference in 'gold glove defense is gold glove defense'. Heyward has a gold glove. Markakis does too. So they must be the same right? That is what the average fan (who makes up most of the fanbases) will think. Just like they think that a 30 homerun hitter is a 30 homerun hitter. Without taking into account all the other things that go into making a hitter productive or not. I believe the vast majority of fans (people who buy tickets) don't care/know about advanced metrics so they probably won't 'see' a difference between the two. And that's likely what Hart was aiming for. It was a move to not anger most of the people who buy tickets.

Was Zito delivering his opinion to avg fans that have never heard of these metrics? Was he standing at the Ted front gates on a soapbox?

[Tapate50]

Not true at all, over the last 3 years, 12 people have the qualified innings for RF, from as low as 2800 innings to as high as 4200 innings. Markakis is 3rd from last in UZR, UZR 150, and tied for second in DRS so on perccentage aggregate there are about 75% of the RFs in baseball who can say they have a better case than Markakis for defensive ability. Essentially the Braves are banking on advanced Metrics being wrong, if the metrics are right, we'll be boned because defense peaks early (as Markakis's career shows) Markakis probably drifts to the worst defensive RF in baseball as I don't think Werth will be spending too much more time in RF, and Torii Hunter can't have that many years left in him. BTW those 2 are 2 more great examples as defense peaking early as they used to be quite good defenders before losinga few steps.

So are you blowing off this new data posted above ?

[dak]

The Inside Edge system basically brings a controlled process to quantifying the "eye test". It's very cool stuff, and seems quite useful in evaluating defense.

As Zito pointed out a bit, there are other elements of defensive value that DRS and UZR capture that don't seem to be a part of Inside Edge. There's also a new technology called StatCast, I think, that measures players movements more accurately and is likely to result in some better defensive metrics. So you kind of have to piece these all together to form a more comprehensive picture instead of zeroing in on just one. I suspect the WAR systems will evolve in the coming years to get better at doing just this.

Many of the players I've looked at across Inside Edge, UZR, and DRS are ver simple cases with all the signs pointing in one direction. The Markakis situation is more conflicting. I think this data helps to make a case that he was more of an average defender over the past three years than a below average defender.

[thewupk]

Was Zito delivering his opinion to avg fans that have never heard of these metrics? Was he standing at the Ted front gates on a soapbox?

Does it matter? There is usually a difference between what the average fan sees and what really matters (see Jeff Francoeur)

[zitothebrave]

The Inside Edge system basically brings a controlled process to quantifying the "eye test". It's very cool stuff, and seems quite useful in evaluating defense.

As Zito pointed out a bit, there are other elements of defensive value that DRS and UZR capture that don't seem to be a part of Inside Edge. There's also a new technology called StatCast, I think, that measures players movements more accurately and is likely to result in some better defensive metrics. So you kind of have to piece these all together to form a more comprehensive picture instead of zeroing in on just one. I suspect the WAR systems will evolve in the coming years to get better at doing just this.

Many of the players I've looked at across Inside Edge, UZR, and DRS are ver simple cases with all the signs pointing in one direction. The Markakis situation is more conflicting. I think this data helps to make a case that he was more of an average defender over the past three years than a below average defender.

Well there's noise in comparing defensive stats which is why there are so many of them. If they all told the same tale, they'd start disappearing. Not every stat is ERA+ vs ERA- where it's tabulated the same way, one just shows the percentage better than the average that a pitcher is while the other is scaled different forget how plus is scaled.

We're getting closer and closer to an accurate number. There will always be some noise, because baseball results are dependent on many many factors you'll never be truly perfect in any stat offensive or defensive, but you can get pretty damned close.

[thethe]

Hysterical. Mabye the Braves know more than the people on this board. I know that's a crazy thing to say.

[yeezus]

Hysterical. Mabye the Braves know more than the people on this board. I know that's a crazy thing to say.

It's not really knowing as much as the singular fan, but there's a lot of info all over the internet that is considered reliable for various reasons. This info has proven to know more than GMs in the past.

[zitothebrave]

Hysterical. Mabye the Braves know more than the people on this board. I know that's a crazy thing to say.

So you're willing to put all your eggs in one basket, that this stat is right after being hyper critical of all other defensive metrics.

Key difference between a true stathead and the ones who say they're stupid, we're willing to consider all the facts and admit things are wrong. We're willing to admit we were wrong when we believed defense doesn't matter that much. Willing to admit some stats are better than others, and hell, they're not the best they can be yet. But they're still the best that's out there and whether using inside edge, or UZR, or DRS, or anything else, you're looking at a picture, that picture tells a certain story, which is pretty useless without proper context.

[thewupk]

Hysterical. Mabye the Braves know more than the people on this board. I know that's a crazy thing to say.

Walks don't matter.