JohnAdcox (08-05-2013)
Chris Johnson hit .280 last season and I remember him being a good prospect coming up in the Astros organization. I forget who said it but CJ used to try to be a power hitter and now he is just trying to hit the ball to all fields and we all see how good of a season he is having. Thats why im convinced hes legit. He probably wont hit .340 next season or ever again, but I think he can be a .300 average hitter here on out bc he has adjusted and has a good idea about the strike zone. Smart player.
ppl talk about his walk rate....but I don't see him swinging at a bunch of bad balls.
Maybe someone will have all the swing and miss rates to look at CJ. But I think his approach doesn't scare ppl. He's not a power threat so people are more aggressive with him. Contrast to Uggla, who despite not being as a good of a hitter gets walks as ppl still fear his power.
What I'm saying is that I don't think his walk rates are the result of a flawed approach or eye. I do think the two hits he had last night could easily be outs next year, but I don't think he goes from 340 to 275.
If he continues to work on this approach, he might be able to turn some of these singles in doubles....he seems to have solid strength and bat speed. If that is the case he could drop into the 290-300 range and have a similar value.
I'm still not seeing it where Johnson is an awful defender.
Obviously he won't hit this well next year but I see no reason why he can't hit around .280 or so next year. As the the said, trading Uggla is more needed. Johnson is one of our better contact hitters. Adding a young contact hitter like LaStella to the lineup would be great.
Just not sure who takes him.
And who replaces him that is better?
But if he's hitting those balls for basehits, its hard to say he's swinging at bad balls. He's just exploiting the pitcher... the pitcher thinks he's getting away with a good pitch but CJ thrives on some pitches outside the zone. He rarely swings at bad balls... not balls outside the strike zone... bad balls.
Why are people trying to come up with numbers to show that Johnson has been bad...the only number that matters is .346.
Obviously the guy isn't going to hit that for the rest of his career, but let's enjoy it while we can.
There are no numbers that would show that he's been bad. But, some of the excuses that are made (different than; hey he's just been lucky) are clearly wrong.
I definitely cannot give you a great answer for that, I'm just basing my reasoning off the eyeball test. I cannot back my claims up statistically, I've just watched him all year... closely the last 2 months or so... It just seems that he doesn't go after many terrible balls.
A nice little interview with the "BABIP Brave"
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/five-...n-babip-brave/
another great stat from CJ:
His batting average on balls in play is .419. That's not off the charts, that's impossible. Only four players since 1950 have hit .400 on balls in play according to Baseball-Reference, with Rod Carew's .408 in 1977 the "record."