Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers

[ramadon101]

The problem with signing Moncada isn't necessarily the $40M bonus and the subsequent $40M penalty that will be tacked on. The main problem for a team like the Braves is when the money is due.

While the bonus can be paid out over a number of years, the entire $40M penalty is due in full sometime around 1 month after the signing period ends (I can't remember the exact date I read). It then becomes a simple cash flow problem...a mid-market team like the Braves might not even have an extra $40M in cash sitting somewhere so they can write a check that large.

Greg Maffei made double that in one year a few years ago ($87.1m in pre-tax comp, to be exact)- so he could personally fund Moncada's upfront tax penalty and structure it as an intercompany loan (with the Braves franchise as a rather large security interest) and yield a return on the note too... or have it structured as a convertible note whereby he could simply exercise more interests in Liberty at a below market strike price thereby inflating his total take home comp in 2015. Win-win.

[clvclv]

The problem with signing Moncada isn't necessarily the $40M bonus and the subsequent $40M penalty that will be tacked on. The main problem for a team like the Braves is when the money is due.

While the bonus can be paid out over a number of years, the entire $40M penalty is due in full sometime around 1 month after the signing period ends (I can't remember the exact date I read). It then becomes a simple cash flow problem...a mid-market team like the Braves might not even have an extra $40M in cash sitting somewhere so they can write a check that large.

I don't foresee that as being NEARLY the issue the naysayers love to hang onto. Just for kicks, let's take Hart's intimation that the absolute 2015 salary "ceiling" was indeed $120 million (he was quoted a while back as saying it would be "north of $100 million and south of $120 million"). Even with the additions of Wandy, KJ, and Gomes we're currently ~$15 million below that. You will also have the increased revenue from the re-worked regional TV deal and the additional national TV deal revenues to work with BEFORE having to consider any payroll increases.

It continues to perplex me that those that have continually chirped that we could've "easily" extended one of Heyward or Upton thinks that trying to do so would've been any different.

[Braves1976]

Here's Hector Olivera showcase video provided by BA.

[NinersSBChamps]

Here's Hector Olivera showcase video provided by BA.

Looks like the Reds already have an inside track.

[ramadon101]

Looks like the Reds already have an inside track.

He probably doesn't realize the "C" stands for Cincinnati instead of Cuba.

[MadduxFanII]

Greg Maffei made double that in one year a few years ago ($87.1m in pre-tax comp, to be exact)- so he could personally fund Moncada's upfront tax penalty and structure it as an intercompany loan (with the Braves franchise as a rather large security interest) and yield a return on the note too... or have it structured as a convertible note whereby he could simply exercise more interests in Liberty at a below market strike price thereby inflating his total take home comp in 2015. Win-win.

I'll confess that I spent way too much mental energy trying to remember what kind of player this oddly named Cuban "Greg Maffei" was and who signed him.

[Julio3000]

I don't foresee that as being NEARLY the issue the naysayers love to hang onto. Just for kicks, let's take Hart's intimation that the absolute 2015 salary "ceiling" was indeed $120 million (he was quoted a while back as saying it would be "north of $100 million and south of $120 million"). Even with the additions of Wandy, KJ, and Gomes we're currently ~$15 million below that. You will also have the increased revenue from the re-worked regional TV deal and the additional national TV deal revenues to work with BEFORE having to consider any payroll increases.

It continues to perplex me that those that have continually chirped that we could've "easily" extended one of Heyward or Upton thinks that trying to do so would've been any different.

I dunno. It just doesn't seem likely, considering that it took them a bit of arm-waving just to go a little bit over-budget to sign Erv last year . . . and that was with a likely compensation pick to be had.

I'm interested to read all of these scenarios and outside-the-box musings, but ultimately I think we're talking about feasibility versus likelihood. Could we sign Moncada? Sure. Maffei could find the MLB tax money in his unicorn-skin couch cushions. Are we gonna? I seriously doubt it. Will we be a legit player on the int'l market going forward? Signs point to yes.

Since you brought up Heyward/Upton . . . assume for a sec that the team had the cash to go 20% over the stated budget in 2015, but lacked the inclination. If they weren't willing to do it for a known commodity, how likely is it that they'd do it for a teenager who hasn't yet stepped between the lines, and comes with a $40M invoice from MLB? How much does Liberty trust the FO? How likely is it that the investment is going to earn out? It just doesn't seem to track with what we know about this franchise.

[Bravesfannchar]

Hey, sorry, not on here everyday and just now getting to reply...

It was a post by Antietam referencing Kevin Maitan... Finally found it on the other site... he's really good info on INT prospects..

That's the name... Would make sense, spend as much as possible this year without penalty, then go over slot next year and restock aplenty...

[clvclv]

I dunno. It just doesn't seem likely, considering that it took them a bit of arm-waving just to go a little bit over-budget to sign Erv last year . . . and that was with a likely compensation pick to be had.

I'm interested to read all of these scenarios and outside-the-box musings, but ultimately I think we're talking about feasibility versus likelihood. Could we sign Moncada? Sure. Maffei could find the MLB tax money in his unicorn-skin couch cushions. Are we gonna? I seriously doubt it. Will we be a legit player on the int'l market going forward? Signs point to yes.

Since you brought up Heyward/Upton . . . assume for a sec that the team had the cash to go 20% over the stated budget in 2015, but lacked the inclination. If they weren't willing to do it for a known commodity, how likely is it that they'd do it for a teenager who hasn't yet stepped between the lines, and comes with a $40M invoice from MLB? How much does Liberty trust the FO? How likely is it that the investment is going to earn out? It just doesn't seem to track with what we know about this franchise.

I certainly won't disagree that it would signal a significant change in organizational strategy, but isn't that what we've all been watching unfold daily since the day Heyward was dealt? I'm not about to cite any sources or act as if I have information that others aren't privy to - the whole basis for my argument is as much to play devil's advocate as anything else. The point is that it's pretty ridiculous to simply dismiss the possibility out of hand because Moncada ISN'T Jason or Justin. As ramadon pointed out, the money isn't the issue, period. If you think your accountant and/or financial advisor has found you has found you some pretty nice returns over the years, they haven't begun to find the places Liberty's beancounters have already used and moved on from.

DirecTV ended 2013 with +/- 20,250,000 subscribers. Assuming all 170,000 new subscribers (20,080,000 at the end of 2012) ONLY signed up for the minimum package ($19.99/month) and the standard 2 year contract, Liberty's MINIMUM 2013 subscription revenues and contracts increased $3,398,300/month which equals $81,559,200 over the 2 year period. If ONLY 170,000 people in Cuba signed up for basic DirecTV so they could access MLB.TV to see the new players coming over in the next two years, you could argue that Moncada's reported price pays for itself. You definitely can't make that claim in any debate about the merits of extending Heyward or Upton.

MLB Advanced Media saw around $250 million in 2012 content subscriptions and was growing at roughly 25%-27% per year. Using the low end of that growth rate, those revenues should be ~$390,625,000 for 2014. All 30 teams receive an EQUAL CUT of that - the Braves cut of that would be $13,020,833 last season alone (effectively clearing Uggla's money from this year's payroll).

Just as the more statistically inclined crowd continues to come up with metrics that can apparently explain everything that happens on a baseball field. it's pretty easy for me to sit here and point out that an $80 million investment in Moncada provides substantially less risk than tossing $200 million at Jason or Justin - Justin might be the safest bet of the three to be that second franchise player to pair with Freddie, but when you look at the potential return without even attaching merchandise revenues the MINIMUM investment in that gamble is substantially higher than the total investment in Moncada (who provides you more chances to minimize that risk considering the opportunity to tap into a largely new market entirely).

[Enscheff]

I don't foresee that as being NEARLY the issue the naysayers love to hang onto. Just for kicks, let's take Hart's intimation that the absolute 2015 salary "ceiling" was indeed $120 million (he was quoted a while back as saying it would be "north of $100 million and south of $120 million"). Even with the additions of Wandy, KJ, and Gomes we're currently ~$15 million below that. You will also have the increased revenue from the re-worked regional TV deal and the additional national TV deal revenues to work with BEFORE having to consider any payroll increases.

It continues to perplex me that those that have continually chirped that we could've "easily" extended one of Heyward or Upton thinks that trying to do so would've been any different.

OK, but player salaries are paid out over the course of the year as cash flows come in, not as a lump sum like the penalty must be paid.

If the Braves couldn't land Tomas, I seriously doubt they will be able to land Moncada. I would love it if they did, but I wouldn't bet on it, or even realistically hope for it.

[clvclv]

OK, but player salaries are paid out over the course of the year as cash flows come in, not as a lump sum like the penalty must be paid.

If the Braves couldn't land Tomas, I seriously doubt they will be able to land Moncada. I would love it if they did, but I wouldn't bet on it, or even realistically hope for it.

I missed some info somewhere - can you link the article that states they "couldn't land Tomas"??? The Braves apparently didn't offer as much as Arizona did - I've yet to see a number that has been even loosely confirmed.

Tomas has been considered a substantially bigger risk than Moncada in every story I've seen referenced anywhere.

Also, if you don't think the organization is capable of soaking up a $40 million payment I can't help you. I dare say there isn't a single MLB franchise that "can't" shuffle things to make such a payment. Whether they're willing to is an entirely different story.

[zbhargrove]

OK, but player salaries are paid out over the course of the year as cash flows come in, not as a lump sum like the penalty must be paid.

If the Braves couldn't land Tomas, I seriously doubt they will be able to land Moncada. I would love it if they did, but I wouldn't bet on it, or even realistically hope for it.

Many more questions on Tomas' potential... kind of a slugger only guy... I wasn't comfortable with dishing out as much as he got, either. I don't think it was a case that the Braves "couldn't get him." Moncada is different... many experts believe he is a franchise potential player that you can build a club around.

[yeezus]

Many more questions on Tomas' potential... kind of a slugger only guy... I wasn't comfortable with dishing out as much as he got, either. I don't think it was a case that the Braves "couldn't get him." Moncada is different... many experts believe he is a franchise potential player that you can build a club around.

Yeah Moncada is younger and has a way higher upside from what I've read.

[dak]

Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan, and Ben Badler have reported today that the OFAC process is no longer an obstacle in Moncada's free agency. Links below. MLB has requested a meeting with the feds to confirm they have no legal liability in moving forward under the new Cuba regulations, which Passan estimates may take a couple weeks.

McDaniel lists the frontrunners for Moncada as NYY, BOS, and LAD. Passan lists the favorites as NYY, BOS, and LAD . . . with CHC not being ruled out. MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez reported yesterday that Moncada has had private workouts this month for the following teams: MIL, TEX, SF, NYY, BOS, SD, LAD.

In regards to the Braves, the elimination of the OFAC obstacle should also clear the path for Hector Olivera. Ben Badler says the Braves are in the mix for Olivera, though SD and SF had the biggest presence at his showcase last week.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/u-s-g...n-ballplayers/

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources...230856047.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/inter...ada-cant-sign/

[emk418]

The sooner we all realize we have no shot at moncada the less disappointed you'll be. There is ZERO chance we land him.

[Braves1976]

The sooner we all realize we have no shot at moncada the less disappointed you'll be. There is ZERO chance we land him.

I pretty much agree, I am even doubtful they'll do what it will takes to sign someone like Olivera.

[Julio3000]

I missed some info somewhere - can you link the article that states they "couldn't land Tomas"??? The Braves apparently didn't offer as much as Arizona did - I've yet to see a number that has been even loosely confirmed.

Tomas has been considered a substantially bigger risk than Moncada in every story I've seen referenced anywhere.

Also, if you don't think the organization is capable of soaking up a $40 million payment I can't help you. I dare say there isn't a single MLB franchise that "can't" shuffle things to make such a payment. Whether they're willing to is an entirely different story.

Again, I think that we're talking past each other. We COULD sign Moncada. It's possible. As you say, any MLB club could find the cash if they needed to. We COULD do it, but it's an academic argument, because it's extremely bloody unlikely—right next door to inconceivable—that we will.

I'm not doubting that we may be contenders for other big-name FAs. I don't doubt that Liberty might open up the wallet sometime in the next couple of years if circumstances dictate . . . I'm just not ready to believe that Nixon has a secret plan to end the war, or that Tinkerbell will live if we just clap hard enough.

[dak]

Here's Hector Olivera showcase video provided by BA.

Thanks for posting this. Guy looks huge for a 2B. Considering he turns 30 in April and has injury concerns, I could see him signing a shorter term deal than most Cubans.

[Julio3000]

If ONLY 170,000 people in Cuba signed up for basic DirecTV so they could access MLB.TV to see the new players coming over in the next two years, you could argue that Moncada's reported price pays for itself. You definitely can't make that claim in any debate about the merits of extending Heyward or Upton.

Quite possibly true, when Cuba has a middle class with discretionary income.

[jpx7]

If ONLY 170,000 people in Cuba signed up for basic DirecTV so they could access MLB.TV to see the new players coming over in the next two years, you could argue that Moncada's reported price pays for itself. You definitely can't make that claim in any debate about the merits of extending Heyward or Upton.

I think this line of reasoning is a huge reach at this point; and if that sort of thinking really played into the Braves' thinking vis-à-vis Heyward and Upton, I would be astounded (and a bit ashamed at their naïveté).