McGuirk Says Braves 'All In' On Youth Movement

[bravesnumberone]

Attendance already wasn't great, which is one of the reasons the team is moving in the first place. With Heyward, Gattis and Justin gone, expect a steep decline.

[clvclv]

Baby Braves?

Yup.

[clvclv]

With that in mind I wish the Braves would get their messages straight. On the one hand you've got McGuirk essentially saying it's a complete rebuild, but then on the other you've got JS and Hart saying it's not a complete rebuild.

I may well have missed it, but I don't recall either of them denying it's a complete overhaul AFTER the Upton deal got close (and it was pretty obvious to everyone) - they were scratching and clawing to maintain any leverage they had by publicly proclaiming an Upton extension was "possible" in the hopes of improving the prospect haul.

[clvclv]

Yep, McGuirk's talking points aren't completely at odds with what Hart has been saying, but there is definitely an opportunity to better align the message.

As for the prospect that Liberty / McGuirk have instituted a payroll reduction, I think these concerns are unfounded at the moment. The current payroll # is impossible to pin down since we don't know which players on split contracts will make the team (Wandy, Stults, KJ), we don't know how Minor's arby case will play out, and we don't know which players with incentives will hit them (almost every player under contract has performance and / or award bonuses . . . some of them significant). The range of outcomes currently looks to be between $99m and $105m, and it'll likely end up close to the middle of that range.

Cot's has our 2014 payroll at $112m. Given our interest in Hector Olivera, it seems to me that our baseball ops folks are free to spend $110m or so this year if they see fit.

Which pretty much fits what Hart said from day one - "north of $100 million and south of $120 million".

[thethe]

Attendance already wasn't great, which is one of the reasons the team is moving in the first place. With Heyward, Gattis and Justin gone, expect a steep decline.

If the Braves ever fielded a 60 win team they would be lucky to draw 20k fans. I think this will be a fun team to watch and the farm has been completely revamped. Best of both worlds.

[bravesnumberone]

If the Braves ever fielded a 60 win team they would be lucky to draw 20k fans. I think this will be a fun team to watch and the farm has been completely revamped. Best of both worlds.

I don't think Nick Markakis, A.J. Piercynzki, Kelly Johnson, etc. are worth 15-20 extra wins. Not unless Angels in the Outfield is about to be real life.

If we can avoid having a decimated pitching staff and get some marginal improvement from our offensive SVODs, we could challenge for a WC spot. But we're not going to have good attendance just from having a couple extra veterans.

We still have two of the least fun players to watch in our lineup at CF and 3B, and we lost three incredibly fun players to watch, so I don't see how this team will be so much more fun. Like others have said, the farm will be more enjoyable to watch. Ya know, if these guys' arms stay attached.

[clvclv]

Bottoming out would make us win sooner. Getting those top 5 draft picks with our new awesome scouting department would get us future superstars.

Yeah - because Top 5 picks ALWAYS pan out.

1990 - Chipper #1, Tony Clark #2, Mike Lieberthal #3, Alex Fernandez #4, Kurt Miller #5, Mark Newfield #6
1991 - Brien Taylor #1, Mike Kelly #2, David McCarty #3, Dimitri Young #4, Kenny Henderson #5

and on and on until an "almost can't miss" one...

1997 - Matt Anderson #1, J. D. Drew #2, Troy Glaus #3, Jason Grilli, #4, Vernon Wells #5 - of course Drew didn't sign.

then you had...

1999 - Josh Hamilton #1, Josh Beckett #2, Eric Munson #3, Corey Myers #4, B. J. Garbe #5 - before Hamilton went on his drug binge and disappeared for years.

and a big winner the next year...

2000 - Adrian Gonzalez #1, Adam Johnson #2, Luis Montanez #3, Mike Stodolka #4, Justin Wayne #5 - when the Phillies took Utley 15th and the Braves took Wainright 29th.

a couple years later you had the scouting coup that produced...

2002 - Bryan Bullington #1, B. J. Upton #2, Chris Gruler #3, Adam Loewen #4, Clint Everts #5 - all selected before Greinke at #6, Fielder at #7, and Hamels at #17.

then onward a couple years to the impressive grouping of...

2004 - Matt Bush #1, Justin Verlander #2, Phil Humber #3, Jeff Niemann #4, Mark Rogers #5 - while Jered Weaver went 12th and Billy Butler 14th.



Even the famous 2005 draft that produced J-Up, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce had Jeff Clement at #3 and Wade Townsend, Mike Pelfrey, and Cameron Maybin taken between Tulo and McCutchen.


Sorry to burst bubbles, but the scouting department that was in place before the front office restructuring probably had a pretty good chance at butchering a Top 5 pick. Just for kicks, everyone chime in with ALL you know about the players in bold above without leaving this page.

[bravesnumberone]

Guys with a history of arm injuries always work out, too.

Not a guarantee by any means top 5 picks work, but it helps to be able to draft earlier, if you're worried about the minors being in shambles.

[rico43]

Guys with a history of arm injuries always work out, too.

Not a guarantee by any means top 5 picks work, but it helps to be able to draft earlier, if you're worried about the minors being in shambles.

Only a few things came to mind:

Brian Taylor destroyed his million dollar arm in a bar fight.
Henderson was a head case who actually was advised by Boras NOT to sign in a previous draft
Bullington at least reached the majors; Gruler had only 10 games in Class A and had a 9.27 ERA

[Heyward]

Tanking in baseball doesnt work in baseball like other sports (NBA mainly), unless you are lucky like the Nats and luck into Harper/Stras.

[thethe]

Guys with a history of arm injuries always work out, too.

Not a guarantee by any means top 5 picks work, but it helps to be able to draft earlier, if you're worried about the minors being in shambles.

It's a strong farm now and will only get better.

[Heyward]

Guys with a history of arm injuries always work out, too.

Not a guarantee by any means top 5 picks work, but it helps to be able to draft earlier, if you're worried about the minors being in shambles.

Who did we trade for that have history of arm injuries?

TJ now is like ACL injuries in football, its so common it isnt abig deal anymore.

[Hawk]

lol

[Heyward]

lol

Made an edit smartypants.

[goldfly]

makes even more sense then why we signed Nick

wait

what

[yeezus]

What everyday players are "putting butts in the seats" this year other than Freeman?

Personally I still love watching Simmons play. I'm hoping Jace Peterson wins the job and starts at 2B. And we have a deep rotation, so we'll be throwing a good starter out every day which is always fun for me.

[50PoundHead]

Yeah - because Top 5 picks ALWAYS pan out.

1990 - Chipper #1, Tony Clark #2, Mike Lieberthal #3, Alex Fernandez #4, Kurt Miller #5, Mark Newfield #6
1991 - Brien Taylor #1, Mike Kelly #2, David McCarty #3, Dimitri Young #4, Kenny Henderson #5

and on and on until an "almost can't miss" one...

1997 - Matt Anderson #1, J. D. Drew #2, Troy Glaus #3, Jason Grilli, #4, Vernon Wells #5 - of course Drew didn't sign.

then you had...

1999 - Josh Hamilton #1, Josh Beckett #2, Eric Munson #3, Corey Myers #4, B. J. Garbe #5 - before Hamilton went on his drug binge and disappeared for years.

and a big winner the next year...

2000 - Adrian Gonzalez #1, Adam Johnson #2, Luis Montanez #3, Mike Stodolka #4, Justin Wayne #5 - when the Phillies took Utley 15th and the Braves took Wainright 29th.

a couple years later you had the scouting coup that produced...

2002 - Bryan Bullington #1, B. J. Upton #2, Chris Gruler #3, Adam Loewen #4, Clint Everts #5 - all selected before Greinke at #6, Fielder at #7, and Hamels at #17.

then onward a couple years to the impressive grouping of...

2004 - Matt Bush #1, Justin Verlander #2, Phil Humber #3, Jeff Niemann #4, Mark Rogers #5 - while Jered Weaver went 12th and Billy Butler 14th.



Even the famous 2005 draft that produced J-Up, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce had Jeff Clement at #3 and Wade Townsend, Mike Pelfrey, and Cameron Maybin taken between Tulo and McCutchen.


Sorry to burst bubbles, but the scouting department that was in place before the front office restructuring probably had a pretty good chance at butchering a Top 5 pick. Just for kicks, everyone chime in with ALL you know about the players in bold above without leaving this page.

Thanks for the hard work on this post. Baseball draft is by far the most difficult. Tools are always tempting, but getting tools to translate at increasingly higher levels of competition is difficult to gauge, especially with the high school kids.

[bravesnumberone]

Personally I still love watching Simmons play. I'm hoping Jace Peterson wins the job and starts at 2B. And we have a deep rotation, so we'll be throwing a good starter out every day which is always fun for me.

I don't disagree, but I don't think many people in the area will ride over to the stadium to watch Simba play defense in person, when they can watch it on TV. Especially when the team will likely struggle.

[clvclv]

Only a few things came to mind:

Brian Taylor destroyed his million dollar arm in a bar fight.
Henderson was a head case who actually was advised by Boras NOT to sign in a previous draft
Bullington at least reached the majors; Gruler had only 10 games in Class A and had a 9.27 ERA

Gold star for Rico - correct on all 3 counts.

[clvclv]

Thanks for the hard work on this post. Baseball draft is by far the most difficult. Tools are always tempting, but getting tools to translate at increasingly higher levels of competition is difficult to gauge, especially with the high school kids.

Which is what's always separated JS-run front offices and made their drafts so impressive - the number of high school kids taken that actually reach the upper levels of the minors and even become role players at the MLB level compared to other organizations is pretty amazing when you compare it to the rest of baseball.