Around Baseball 2015 Edition

[thewupk]

Her is the ranking by average salary:

Kershaw
Scherzer
Lester
Verlander
Cain
Felix
Greinke
Hamels
lee
CC
Tanaka
Porcello
Price
Wainwright
Sheilds
Bailey
Lincecum
Weaver
Sanchez

And that means what? Price per WAR has skyrocketed the last few years. What you need to figure out is what the going $$/WAR was when each pitcher signed. Porcello also gets a slight boost for signing his prime years away which will always increase salaries compared to someone at age 30.

Again, the Sox are paying Porcello to be a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher on the current market. That is not ace money unles you think aces are now 3-4 WAR pitchers. I think it's an overpay but he's not getting ace money. Aces, especially those in their prime, would be getting 25+ right now. And that's only going to go up as long as salaries continue to inflate as tehy have been,

[thethe]

What about the others?

Also, when do you thing "baseball changed" and higher salaries were projected?

Its been changing every single year as the revenue projections from multi-media products keeps increasing. You are a finance guy. I know you are aware of this.

[NinersSBChamps]

thethe is right.

[Orphan Black]

All I was trying to point out is that every time a pitcher signs it seems to make Teheran contract look better and better.

On that note I don't see how Porcello is a $20+ million a year pitcher. The guy has been pretty mediocre over his career, and even in his good years he has only been slightly better than average.

[thewupk]

All I was trying to point out is that every time a pitcher signs it seems to make Teheran contract look better and better.

On that note I don't see how Porcello is a $20+ million a year pitcher. The guy has been pretty mediocre over his career, and even in his good years he has only been slightly better than average.

It all comes down to price per WAR. Porcello has ben a 2.8 WAR pitcher the last 3 years. The price per war for pitchers is right around 6 million. So that is a quick 18 million a year just based on his last 3 seasons. When you factor in that baseball has trended to paying more for a players prime years then post 30 years in the last few seasons and that the Sox expect him to improve as ahe reaches your prime then you get the 21 million he's making.

[gilesfan]

And that means what? Price per WAR has skyrocketed the last few years. What you need to figure out is what the going $$/WAR was when each pitcher signed. Porcello also gets a slight boost for signing his prime years away which will always increase salaries compared to someone at age 30.

Again, the Sox are paying Porcello to be a 3.5-4 WAR pitcher on the current market. That is not ace money unles you think aces are now 3-4 WAR pitchers. I think it's an overpay but he's not getting ace money. Aces, especially those in their prime, would be getting 25+ right now. And that's only going to go up as long as salaries continue to inflate as tehy have been,

I guess your definition of an ace is much stricter than mine. Scherzer is projected as a 4.5 WAR pitcher and I call him an ace. His true AAV is somewhere in the 25-27 million range or 6 million per WAR

Kershaw is projected as a 6 WAR (in 2015), he's getting 32 million in 2016 (using 2016 bc that's when Porcellos contract goes into affect) 5.3 million per WAR
Porcello is projected as a 2.4 WAR (in 2015), he's getting 20 million in 2016. 8.33 million per WAR. If you use 3, it's 6.7 million per WAR
Shields is projected as a 4.1 WAR, he's getting 21 million in 2016. 5.1 million per WAR
Lester is projected as a 4.3 WAR, he's getting 20 million in 2016. 4.7 million per WAR


Teams in general will pay 6 million for 1 WAR. But, that doesn't mean they will pay 42 million for 6 WAR or 24 million for 4 WAR.

[gilesfan]

Its been changing every single year as the revenue projections from multi-media products keeps increasing. You are a finance guy. I know you are aware of this.

You didn't answer my question.

[thethe]

You didn't answer my question.

I did.

[thewupk]

I guess your definition of an ace is much stricter than mine. Scherzer is projected as a 4.5 WAR pitcher and I call him an ace. His true AAV is somewhere in the 25-27 million range or 6 million per WAR

Kershaw is projected as a 6 WAR (in 2015), he's getting 32 million in 2016 (using 2016 bc that's when Porcellos contract goes into affect) 5.3 million per WAR
Porcello is projected as a 2.4 WAR (in 2015), he's getting 20 million in 2016. 8.33 million per WAR. If you use 3, it's 6.7 million per WAR
Shields is projected as a 4.1 WAR, he's getting 21 million in 2016. 5.1 million per WAR
Lester is projected as a 4.3 WAR, he's getting 20 million in 2016. 4.7 million per WAR


Teams in general will pay 6 million for 1 WAR. But, that doesn't mean they will pay 42 million for 6 WAR or 24 million for 4 WAR.

$$/WAR stays pretty consistant close to 3 WAR then starts to drop off the more WAR a player produces. You are also forgetting the fact that Porcello is 26 and Shields and Lester are over 30. Teams are also paying more for prime years compared to players over 30 due to the fact that they are more likely to crash and burn at any time compared to a player in prime who is much more likely to maintain or even improve. The Braves did this with Freeman a year ago.

If Porcello was 31 or 33 he wouldn't have got 21 million a year for 4 years based on what he did the previous 3. Just as Lester and Shields would have gotten a lot more then that they did if they were 26 when signing their deals. It's apples to oranges.

[gilesfan]

$$/WAR stays pretty consistant close to 3 WAR then starts to drop off the more WAR a player produces. You are also forgetting the fact that Porcello is 26 and Shields and Lester are over 30. Teams are also paying more for prime years compared to players over 30 due to the fact that they are more likely to crash and burn at any time compared to a player in prime who is much more likely to maintain or even improve. The Braves did this with Freeman a year ago.

If Porcello was 31 or 33 he wouldn't have got 21 million a year for 4 years based on what he did the previous 3. Just as Lester and Shields would have gotten a lot more then that they did if they were 26 when signing their deals. It's apples to oranges.

Well, Im not forgetting it; actually mentioned it earlier. Though the difference between Shields/Lester and Porcello is rather large.

Porcello's contract is for the next 4 years; here is his projected WARP over that time compared to Shields/Lester based on baseball prospectus future projections:

Starting at 2016:

Porcello
-0.4
0.1
0.7
-0.8

Sheilds:
0.8
0.3
-0.4
0.4

Lester
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.4

[gilesfan]

Heck, look at Homer Bailey. He's a better pitcher than Porcello and makes less than him.

[parkvadawg]

Lord if the Sox didn't overpay and slightly above average pitchers are worth over 20 mil per, Price is going to get 50 mil per year.

[thewupk]

Heck, look at Homer Bailey. He's a better pitcher than Porcello and makes less than him.

Based on one fluke year?

[thewupk]

Well, Im not forgetting it; actually mentioned it earlier. Though the difference between Shields/Lester and Porcello is rather large.

Porcello's contract is for the next 4 years; here is his projected WARP over that time compared to Shields/Lester based on baseball prospectus future projections:

Starting at 2016:

Porcello
-0.4
0.1
0.7
-0.8

Sheilds:
0.8
0.3
-0.4
0.4

Lester
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.4

I wouldn't trust baseball prospectus. But I have a good feeling about Porcello out performing Shields during that 4 year span.

[Orphan Black]

Based on one fluke year?

What about Porcello? He's been below average every year except his first and last season...and his WAR numbers are skewed a bit from having a 4+WAR season last year.

[gilesfan]

I wouldn't trust baseball prospectus. But I have a good feeling about Porcello out performing Shields during that 4 year span.

That's really doubtful

[thewupk]

What about Porcello? He's been below average every year except his first and last season...and his WAR numbers are skewed a bit from having a 4+WAR season last year.

I'm referring to fWar in which Porcello has been at 2.7 and 2.8 the last 3 seasons. Baiely has had the 1 fluke 4 WAR year surrounded by a lot of seasons in the 1's plus a low 2 WAR season.

[thewupk]

That's really doubtful

What's doubtful is Shields stays healthy all 4 years.

[gilesfan]

I'm referring to fWar in which Porcello has been at 2.7 and 2.8 the last 3 seasons. Baiely has had the 1 fluke 4 WAR year surrounded by a lot of seasons in the 1's plus a low 2 WAR season.

So essentially Bailey has been Porcello except for that 1 year he was much better.

[gilesfan]

What's doubtful is Shields stays healthy all 4 years.

And the chances of Porcello staying healthy for all 4 years?