Around Baseball 2015 Edition

[thewupk]

So essentially Bailey has been Porcello except for that 1 year he was much better.

Only if you think a high 1 WAR is equal to a high 2 WAR

[thewupk]

And the chances of Porcello staying healthy for all 4 years?

Are much higher?

[gilesfan]

Only if you think a high 1 WAR is equal to a high 2 WAR

The high 1 WAR seasons are seasons he did not pitch a full year.

Last 3 years:

Bailey 562.2 IP, 7.9 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, 0.99 HR/9, 3.61 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, 8.3 WAR
Porcello 558.0 IP, 6.1 k/9, 2.1 bb/9, 0.84 HR/9, 4.08 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 8.1 WAR

Bailey's contract, 10m, 18m , 19m, 21m
Porcello's contract, 12.5m, 20m, 20m, 21m

[gilesfan]

Are much higher?

If you think you can predict arm injuries for pitchers, you should probably be hired by somebody.

[thewupk]

The high 1 WAR seasons are seasons he did not pitch a full year.

Last 3 years:

Bailey 562.2 IP, 7.9 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, 0.99 HR/9, 3.61 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, 8.3 WAR
Porcello 558.0 IP, 6.1 k/9, 2.1 bb/9, 0.84 HR/9, 4.08 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.59 xFIP, 8.1 WAR

Bailey's contract, 10m, 18m , 19m, 21m
Porcello's contract, 12.5m, 20m, 20m, 21m

Being able to stay healthy and pitch a full year has value

[thewupk]

If you think you can predict arm injuries for pitchers, you should probably be hired by somebody.

It doesn't take much to realize a pitcher in his late 20's is more likely to pitch a full season then a guy in his mid 30's.

[gilesfan]

It doesn't take much to realize a pitcher in his late 20's is more likely to pitch a full season then a guy in his mid 30's.

What percentage more likely is it that Porcello throws 800 innings than Shields throws 800?

[Tapate50]

SD made a ton of moves over the winter and spring and still neglected SS. They are apparently shopping hard for one now.

[50PoundHead]

SD made a ton of moves over the winter and spring and still neglected SS. They are apparently shopping hard for one now.

SD looks like a team that will be difficult to "sync up." Can't believe Myers can play CF effectively for a whole season without being exposed.

So let's spin this scenario. Say the Braves move Peraza back to SS in Gwinnett and he shows he could play the position effectively at the big-league level. Do we consider trying to move Simmons to the Padres for Myers + ? Just a thought on my part and I'm certainly not advocating moving Simmons.

[Tapate50]

SD looks like a team that will be difficult to "sync up." Can't believe Myers can play CF effectively for a whole season without being exposed.

So let's spin this scenario. Say the Braves move Peraza back to SS in Gwinnett and he shows he could play the position effectively at the big-league level. Do we consider trying to move Simmons to the Padres for Myers + ? Just a thought on my part and I'm certainly not advocating moving Simmons.

Ship them Peraza if they want to pony up again. I don't think Peraza was ever considered sub par at SS, but he didn't have the cannon for the deep short plays that Simmons does (Most don't).

I would not be advocating it either but your scenario about Myers in CF holds water IMO.

[gilesfan]

THink they might get Castro

[50PoundHead]

THink they might get Castro

Would the Cubs go with Russell at SS? They'd be on the verge of an all-rookie IF by the end of the season if Baez and Bryant move La Stella and Olt out of the starting line-up at some juncture. I thought they were considering moving Russell to a different position.

[Heyward]

Who cares what his career numbers are? What kind of pitcher is he now?

He's pretty much a #3 type, not to mention i would have waited to see how he pitches in Fenway and the AL East.

He's improving but 20 mil a year is the 16th higher AAV pitcher contract all-time, thats ace money.

[Heyward]

I know there is differences in ages but they'll give Porcello 20.5 mil, but wont give Lester a little over 20-21 mil which would have got it done.

And 20 mil is absolutely ace money, i mean FFS, he makes more than WAINO.

[thewupk]

What percentage more likely is it that Porcello throws 800 innings than Shields throws 800?

Higher then your willing to admit

[Julio3000]

Higher then your willing to admit

"Probably," said Jordan Schafer to the officer.

[thewupk]

I know there is differences in ages but they'll give Porcello 20.5 mil, but wont give Lester a little over 20-21 mil which would have got it done.

And 20 mil is absolutely ace money, i mean FFS, he makes more than WAINO.

I seriously doubt it was the money per year that made them move on from Lester but the lenth of the deal. The Lester contract could look very bad in the last year or two. That's just the nature of long deals with a player that's 30+. Porcello's deal ends when he is 30. The chances of Porcello being dead money so to speak at the end of his contract is substantially lower.

And that's where baseball is headed as far as contracts go. Some could say they are overpaying but baseball as a whole is now overpaying for a players prime years due to these factors. Braves did with with Freeman last year and it's why your likely to see Heyward land a monster deal. Most of his contract will cover prime years. Teams have recently shifted from paying more money to players in the 26-30 range then the 30+ range then they have in recent years. And that is likely to continue. Players that come up young enough to hit free agency by 26 or 27 will bank hard with the way the market is going.

[gilesfan]

Higher then your willing to admit

In other words you have zero clue.

[50PoundHead]

I'd just never bet against James Shields.

Of course, I thought Roy Halladay was going to pitch forever.

[thewupk]

In other words you have zero clue.

Nobody does. But there is a reason why players in their late 20's are getting paid higher then those in their 30's. It's not rocket science bro.