Natural Immunity Croc
I still cringe every time someone mentions this - that's where the "new math" falls short IMO. Statheads have certain criteria that they feel have to be met for a player to become an "impact" player, and that they have to reach certain total base levels to truly be an impact player. Ichiro's simply a bad comp for the vast majority of hitters in the history of the game.
Personally I look no further than Otis Nixon as a pretty good comp for Peraza. Career OBP of .343 with "only" 180 XBH. Of course that also comes with 878 runs and 620 SBs while playing elite defense in the middle of the diamond for 17 years. If Peraza provides that kind of production while "only hitting singles" (particularly at Otis' levels from 1990 until the end of his career), I'll find it AWFULLY tough for anyone to say he's not an impact player with a straight face.
Not a shot at you Russ - just think Otis is one of those players the "new math" highly undervalues to the point of almost discarding. He (and hopefully Peraza) is the type of player that scoutheads always scream that statheads aren't watching the games if they don't think he's an impact player about.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
I don't think you're wrong. It's just that if you are a singles only hitter then it puts a lot more pressure on your batting avg. It's less margin for error. If you are Nixon, or Ichiro, then no worries. But it's tough to hit over 300. And if you are all singles and few walks then you are saying the kid has to have a career avg over 300 to be an impact guy. That's tough.
JohnAdcox (05-06-2015)
JohnAdcox (05-06-2015)
50PoundHead (05-06-2015)
No. Everyone that has watched him has said he's elite. He could be a very good defensive SS by all accounts so I think he can handle 2B.
Guys with range sometimes get more errors b/c they get to more stuff. I haven't watched him so I don't know where his errors are coming from, but scouts all seem to agree he can field.
No question about that. There's still no reason not to think guys like Peraza and Mallex (as John notes) won't still be impact players even if they don't hit .300 though IMO. They won't necessarily have sexy numbers or make bunches of All-Star appearances, but their impact will be much greater on the lineup as a whole. I look at it much like those early 90's Braves' teams that had Nixon AND Deion at the top at times. If you've got 2 or 3 guys with speed and .340-ish OBPs at the top, Freeman suddenly becomes an absolute monster because there's almost always somebody on when he comes to the plate and (more often than not) he can drive them in with with singles and doubles because they're often standing at 2B (at least). If you sign a Justin or Cespedes so other teams can't pitch around Freddie there may be multiple MVP seasons in his future in that case.
I'd guess it's just that I'm more positive in believing that Peraza's career .307/.352 is a little misleading since it's actually been climbing every season as he moves up the ladder and sees better competition. I don't personally think he'll have any trouble delivering .300/.340 when he's facing Pitchers who around the plate even more.
Last edited by clvclv; 05-06-2015 at 10:14 AM.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
we don't disagree...it's about labels.
re: Smith, I agree that if he does that he's a useful player and not a 4th OF.
re: Peraza. I think the bar is higher. His rankings and what I read from scouts are talking about an All star player. I think everyone thinks that he'd be a positive WAR player now. But the bar is higher for him IMO.
re: FF. If you had two guys ahead of him that were consistently on second (high OBP and steals) then he could put up stupid RBI numbers. Or they could always walk him b/c he's protected by Gomes...
For some fans, sure. But those are pretty unreasonable expectations to hang on a guy who makes a living hitting the ball on the ground and with his legs IMO. I certainly don't think the Braves expect him to be a perennial All-Star, but you're right - some fans will. Like we both have said, it's a question of labels. If Peraza turns into an Otis Nixon type player I personally think the organization will be thrilled (and I would too).
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
People need to stop calling Peraza an 'all singles' hitter. He had 33 XBH in 110 games last year, as a 20-year-old in A+ and AA. Calling him a singles hitter is just misinformed. He's also 6'0" 180...there's no reason to believe he can't develop even more power.
He has consistently put up an ISO around .100, as a really young guy at every level. He's started slower at AAA, but he still has two 3Bs this year. No reason to think he won't start hitting more XBH.
As far as his errors, Simmons had 28 in 2011 and then made a joke of all defensive metrics by the very next year. A lot of times errors in the minors can mean a guy is getting to more balls and trying to make crazy plays, not that he's just letting balls go under his glove.
thethe (05-06-2015)
Peraza's most likely projection is major league regular playing second and batting at the top of the lineup. He could be All-Star caliber for multiple seasons but I would put the odds of that at below 50 percent.
I am not negative on Peraza at all. He just is not a top 20 prospect. Top 20 prospects have star potential. Mookie Betts wasn't even a top 20 prospect and he is a stud. 2b is not a premium position
I like Peraza. But a .750 OPS with some speed and defense from a 2B is solid, not spectacular. He is not a high ceiling guy.