You're right that valuation has more to do with off-field value. Braves should value Heyward more than the average team as a local boy he should be looked at in a more positive tone for that.
And there is a reason different versions of WAR exist, and it's because WAR is a countable stat based off rate stats. It's usually a countable offensive stat plus a countable defensive stat. Then it's position and league adjusted which both use the same adjustment for that. In reality aside from pitchers the offensive numbers aren't too far off. Fangraphs uses the less sensational UZR and B-Ref uses DRS, that's probably th ebiggest given difference. By my simple calculations the overall RAR difference on offense between BRef and fangraphs on Heyward is about 1 per year, which isn't really massive.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
I don't believe that we can pay Heyward that kind of money without some uptick in production. I know he is average , but if we sign him to market ... Average isn't good enough.
I'd rather sign someone to more money for more bat.
*as this team is currently constructed
I find it very interesting we are even having this discussion civilly because just a year or two back to question if Heyward was a superstar was basically blasphemy.
Ivermectin Man
Here's the rub with Heyward, he's younger than your average FA. For position players, only 7 free agents will be under 30, the majority of them (5 out of 7) will be 29, Justin is 28, Jason is 26. He's the rare young free agent. The rare free agent you can sign to a 7 year deal and likely still be productive at the end of it. If Heyward was playing to his potential, he'd get 200+ million. I think the Ellsbury contract iwll be more realistic. Maybe a little lower, but it's so rare for a 26 year old free agent ot be out there.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
jpx7 (05-24-2015)
jpx7 (05-24-2015)
Yes, i know the inflation is baseball is stupid but still thats alot of money for an all-world defender and hitter who continues to be what he is.
I think he'll do better as the year goes on but we keep hearing out potential while some of yall seem to think we got rid of a top 10 player at the time.
If anyone is the authority on posters looking foolish, it's thethe.
thethe (05-24-2015)
DirkPiggler (05-24-2015), jpx7 (05-24-2015)
Truth.
If the Braves are going to pay a player $20 MM per year or more, that guy has to give them something both offensively and defensively, with heavy emphasis on the offense. Heyward is too one-dimensional for a team with our payroll limitations. That doesn't mean Heyward isn't worth what he's going to get - just that the Braves can't afford to pay that much for a defense-first guy.
thethe (05-24-2015)
How is it crap? Smith and Robinson are examples are superstars that were elite defenders and meh offensively on the whole. The fact that these players were voted into the HOF means that baseball has valued defense a great deal in the past and continues to do so. And the fact that advanced defensive stats support their induction into the HOF also brings validity that advanced stats do work.
I'm not saying Heyward is either one of those. Longevity does play a huge role here and who knows how long Heyward will be where he is at with the glove. But if it is sustained I don't see you can say isn't to be considered a superstar. A run saved is just as important as a run created.
jpx7 (05-24-2015)
I would agree with your first part. A really good hitter with average defense is more valuable than an averge hitter with really good defense. But that doesn't really apply to Heyward and Freeman. Since Freeman is a really good hitter with below avg defense while Heyward is an average hitter with elite defense. You might consider that semantics but it does add up. Freeman has never had an overall season as good as Heywards best.
jpx7 (05-24-2015)
As I said: different era, different positions, longevity that is not comparable at the moment. ozzie's value as an out-of-this-world defensive SS is higher and clearly appreciated more. there's just too much difference to say, let's say last year's Heyward, is at Ozzie-level importance.