From SB Nation:
From the Minor League Ball mailbag (submit questions to Johnsickels@sbnation.com if you like):
"I'm a Braves fan and like most I'm excited about the improvement in the farm system since the new staff took over. However I can't help noticing that J.R. Graham is pitching very well with the Twins and I don't think we'll get him back as a Rule 5. I know he was hurt last year but I wish we still had him. Thoughts?" Cliff B., Ocean Springs, Mississippi
Several come to mind, Cliff.
First, Graham is doing OK for the Twins: 3.64 ERA in 30 innings, 21/8 K/BB, 34 hits. The ERA and K/BB aren't bad but he's already given up six homers and his FIP (5.23) and xFIP (4.34) aren't as good as the traditional run measure.His fWAR is actually negative at -0.3. He hasn't been horrible and this is much better than what he was doing last year in Double-A. He'll hold his job but he isn't exactly a dominant force at this stage.
Graham was available because he simply wasn't very good last year, hampered by shoulder trouble. Here's the capsule report on him from Rule 5 day back in December:
Age 24, a fourth round pick from Santa Clara in 2011. Once one of Atlanta's top prospects, he was waylaid with shoulder trouble this year and posted a 5.55 ERA with a 50/26 K/BB in 71 innings in Double-A. When healthy he shows impressive stuff with a mid-90s fastball, good slider and change-up, but his velocity tailed off after getting hurt. Intriguing reclamation project.
It has worked out pretty well for the Twins and Graham on the health front: his shoulder seems OK and his velocity is back, his fastball clocked as high as 98 this spring and averaging 95. However, his best role going forward is middle relief. He doesn't have the durability to start and while it is theoretically possible for him to be a closer at some point, the same can be said about fifty other short/middle relief pitchers with similar stuff. Most guys like this are fungible bullpen parts, so while Graham has talent I wouldn't lose a bunch of sleep over the fact that the Braves didn't protect him, not yet anyway.
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