Kelly Johnson

[nsacpi]

He's had a renaissance at age 33. Many of us would like him back, not just for the bat but because his positional versatility makes our bench play much longer.

I wanted to take a look at the elements of his 2015 renaissance to form a judgement about how much is flukish and how much has a chance of being sustained into next year.

There has been a certain amount of research done on how quickly certain stats stabilize. The more slowly they stabilize the more likely they are to be flukes or misleading in small samples.

For the stats I want to look at the rough order of speed of stabilization is: strikeout rate, walk rate, ISO and BABIP. BABIP stabilizes much more slowly than the other three.

I'll start with KJ's strikeout rate since the research indicates that a change there is most likely to be meaningful. In 2012-2014, he put up strikeout rates of 27.4%, 24.3% and 23.9%. This year it is at 20.6%. The improvement here is quite encouraging. A 20% strikeout rate is not great unless you are a slugger. But it gives you a much better chance of success than a 25% strikeout rate.

His walk rates for 2012-2014 were 10.7%, 8.6% and 9.8%. This year it is 6.3%. So a negative development. But it doesn't fully offset the improvement in the strikeout rate. First the improvement in the strikeout rate is larger. And remember that strikeout rates stabilize faster than walk rates for hitters, so this makes the strikeout rate improvement more meaningful.

Let's look at ISO now. His 2012-2014 numbers were .140, .175 and .147. This year it is .183. That's quite a nice improvement, especially when you consider he played in better hitters' parks in 2012-2014. At the same time you have to discount some of it.

The number you discount a lot of is BABIP if it shows a big change from the prior baseline. His 2012-2014 BABIP numbers were .292, .276 and .266. This year it is at .313. Digging a little deeper we see that his line drive rate in 2012-2014 was 21.0%, 15.2 and 21.1%. This year it is 25.5%. Line drive rate stabilizes fairly quickly. So some of the improvement in BABIP is real and sustainable (maybe as much as half). But the rest is not, which means that realistically we should expect his BABIP to drop to 20-30 points going forward.

So what is the bottom line. In trying to decide what kind of performance he would give us next year, I would bank on most of the changes in his strikeout, walk and ISO rates being sustained. But would discount at least 20 points off his current BABIP. That's good enough to make me want to bring him back.

He and his family live in the area. He's talked about how nice it has been to be able to spend more time with his kids during the season. I think he would like to come back and would likely accept a little less than from other teams to be able to do so. At the same time, he's earned a raise from what he's making this year (1.5M).

[NinersSBChamps]

Definitely sign me up for keeping KJ24 around. He's been so valuable to this team, it's been unreal.

[Dalyn]

If we can get something of value for him at the deadline, I say trade him and worry about signing him next year.

[nsacpi]

If we can get something of value for him at the deadline, I say trade him and worry about signing him next year.

I agree. I don't think trading KJ would affect the chances of him coming back. I think the same might apply to Uribe, though it is less clear given he doesn't have the same ties to the area as KJ.

[nsacpi]

Btw it is interesting to note that the most significant area of improvement by AJ Pierzynzki this year relative to his three year baseline is in the strikeout rate. It is at 9.0% this year versus 15.0%, 14.4% and 14.9% in the prior three years. Bringing him back for another year would not be my first choice with respect to the catching position in 2016. But it is a solid Plan B.

[Enscheff]

I think the bench of KJ, Gomes and AJ are all worth a spot on the roster next year. The issue is when they are used as more than bench players, like they have been this year.

KJ provides a nice bat at several positions. Gomes is still hitting LHers well (800 OPS this year) and no matter what stat heads think, he brings valuable intangibles to the table. As long as he only makes spot starts vs LHers, and is used to PH, he is a useful piece. AJ would be a good backup behind a RHed hitting catcher.

Uribe is an excellent Plan B at 3B if a long term impact option can't be acquired this offseason. Good defense and above average RHed power is exactly what this team needs. They just need a better version of Uribe in LF or 3B by 2017 if they hope to truly compete for a championship.

[Julio3000]

I think the bench of KJ, Gomes and AJ are all worth a spot on the roster next year. The issue is when they are used as more than bench players, like they have been this year.

KJ provides a nice bat at several positions. Gomes is still hitting LHers well (800 OPS this year) and no matter what stat heads think, he brings valuable intangibles to the table. As long as he only makes spot starts vs LHers, and is used to PH, he is a useful piece. AJ would be a good backup behind a RHed hitting catcher.

Uribe is an excellent Plan B at 3B if a long term impact option can't be acquired this offseason. Good defense and above average RHed power is exactly what this team needs. They just need a better version of Uribe in LF or 3B by 2017 if they hope to truly compete for a championship.

I like all of those guys as role players. It's worth remembering that Gomes has a vesting option based on PAs (I think) that he might very well hit. I like Jonny, I just don't think he should start vs. RHP as often as he does. Once in a while to keep the rust off? Sure. Otherwise, no thanks. I'd happily take KJ back next year. I'll be disappointed if we don't retain or re-sign him.

[nsacpi]

Next year's bench could look something like this: KJ, Gomes, Eury Perez, Ciriaco, Bethancourt.

Re-sign Uribe and upgrade left and catcher.

Having a largely veteran bench like that allows us to take our time with the prospects in the upper minors. Let Peraza, Smith and Castro marinate for another half-season in AAA. Bethancourt will be out of options so we will not be able to send him down without risk of losing him.

[Enscheff]

I think I would prefer to upgrade at C, have AJ on the bench, and trade CB, but KJ and Gomes are a great foundation of a good bench. AJ has proven he can step in and play for an extended period, and that's exactly the kind of thing Ross brought to the table as well. I would not trust CB to do the same, so let another team take him on as a high upside project.

If the Braves hope to trade for a player like Braun or Tulo or Lucroy (or Braun AND Lucroy), then a package including CB plus Peraza (or Jace) plus an elite arm is going to have to be in play.