Note: This is an ESPN article from Buster Olney. The remaining portion of the article not pertaining to the Braves can be found here: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/bust...post/_/id/2745
PHILADELPHIA -- The Atlanta Braves wake up this morning with a lead of 12 1/2 games in the National League East, and if they win just one of three games in Washington in the series that starts tonight, the division race may be all but over. Now, you’ll probably never get anybody in the Braves organization to talk about their position of strength, about a fait accompli, given their historic late-season collapse of 2011.
But they are burying their NL East brethren, have only seven games remaining against teams with records over .500 the rest of the season, and probably will face the Marlins after they shut down Jose Fernandez -- whom the Braves have not seen this year, through a bit of good fortune -- and will see the Mets at a time when they’ll be pulling the reins back on Matt Harvey.
The Braves’ magic number to clinch is down to 39, their winning streak is at 10 games and they are playing with staggering confidence. As they thumped Cliff Lee with some big, aggressive swings Sunday night, their dugout chatter was at high pitch: When Chris Johnson slammed a two-run single in the first inning, and when Justin Upton and Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton smoked line drives, the other Braves would start shouting -- for not only the hit, it seemed, but the aggression. Atlanta has the best defensive shortstop in baseball in Andrelton Simmons, they have the best closer in Craig Kimbrel, they have a deep corps of setup men, and they have a deep lineup that, through all of the strikeouts, will relentlessly pressure opposing pitchers.
"We are gooood," said one Atlanta veteran, using the word in a way so that he was impressed rather than bragging.
If the Braves continue to play this well -- and given the depth of their roster, improved by deals by GM Frank Wren, and the relative easiness of their remaining schedule and travel, there’s no reason why this can’t continue -- they should have a lot of time to shape their team for the postseason.
1. They’ll have time to get B.J. Upton right-- and his opposite-field extra-base hit Sunday was a sign that he may be waiting on the ball again.
2. They can rest their bullpen. In 2011, their relievers wore down and had nothing left by the end of September. This year, Fredi Gonzalez should be able to rest the hard-working Luis Avilan in the final weeks of the season; the same with the newly acquired Scott Downs. And they can basically regulate Kimbrel’s appearances, at a time when he’s throwing the ball exceptionally well: He has allowed one run in his past 30 appearances.
3. Brian McCann was hurt at the outset of this season and began the year on the disabled list, so he’s relatively fresh, and Gonzalez can continue to give him regular time off.
4. The lead gives them the opportunity to deal with Julio Teheran’s innings count from a position of strength. Over his past 11 starts, Teheran has allowed 17 earned runs in 68 innings, for a 2.25 ERA, with 15 walks and 62 strikeouts. He has thrown 131 innings so far this year and is fast approaching his career high of 164 1/3 innings, established in 2011. Knowing that they are likely to be in the postseason, the Braves could back up Teheran’s starts, or skip him once or twice, or limit him to five or six innings, as they have in some starts in the second half.
5. They could line up their playoff rotation well in advance of the playoffs, tuning up Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen in the way they do at the end of spring training.
6. They can give their bench guys, from Evan Gattis to the currently disabled Jordan Schafer and Reed Johnson plenty of at-bats in September.
Gonzalez walked away from the 2011 collapse changed as a manager, believing that he would be more open to changes in the future, and naturally scarred. So I’m sure he would run from the questions of how the big lead will help his decision-making, and he would reflexively find a piece of wood to knock on for good luck.
But the Braves are rolling, without any speed bumps in sight.
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