Braves Take Unorthodox Approach to Overhaul

[Hawk]

From Tyler Kepner, one of the best scribes in the business:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/28/sp...haul.html?_r=0

One rival general manager, who was granted anonymity so he could analyze another team’s deal, called the Toussaint trade the most interesting in baseball this decade. In contrast with other trades in which big money changes hands, the major leaguers in this deal were almost incidental to the value the Braves placed on a prospect.

--

“Going into next year, we feel like we’ll have nine starting pitchers who can fight for jobs,” said Coppolella, the 37-year-old assistant general manager, who is considered Hart’s eventual heir. “So we’re trying to build as much upside, impact pitching, as we can, and to see where we’ve come in such a short time is really exciting. This is just the start.”

--

The Braves extended the contracts of all their coaches and Manager Fredi Gonzalez this month as a show of faith in a time of transition. They also used some of the savings from their trades to stock the lower levels of the farm system.

“We said, ‘O.K., we’ve got a little bit of excess cash,’ ” Hart said. “A lot of teams will spend it right away, but because of some of the deals we made, we saw it as an opportunity.”

[gilesfan]

How many different people are going to write the same article, just different way?

[MadduxFanII]

Baseball being what it is, you can do everything right and still fall short. Evaluating and projecting young talent is both an inexact science and a frustrating art, and the modal outcome of these decisions is usually failure. We all loved the Toussaint trade, for example, but by far the likeliest outcome there is that the Diamondbacks "win" the trade, at least in terms of value contributed at the big league level- Toussaint probably will never reach the big leagues, not because there's anything wrong with him, but simply because that's overwhelmingly the best bet for a sub-20-year-old pitcher in Low-A.

That the farm system is dramatically improved is undeniable. What that improvement actually means is yet to be seen. I remain deeply skeptical of the pitching uber alles strategy, insofar as the changing nature of the game means pitching exists in abundance and hitting is a scarce resource. As a result, we're essentially hoping that, at some indeterminate point down the road, we can trade the thing there's plenty of for the thing there's little of, which...it's possible, certainly, but as a general rule that's a tough bet.

Still, between Albies, Davidson, Yepez, Acuna and Riley there are some intriguing bats at the very lowest levels of the system, so things aren't completely barren there.

[MadduxFanII]

How many different people are going to write the same article, just different way?

At least the headline wasn't, "The Braves' New World of Rebuilding."

[Chico]

9 pitchers? Miler, Wood, Julio, Wisler, Manny, Folty, Jenkins. That's 7. They could be counting Sims and Hursh in there which would be 9. Although Hursh is destined for the pen.

But that got me wondering if they plan on keeping Arroyo. His buyout is 4.5M and his option is 11M. So you have to look at it as we're paying him 6.5M if we keep him. 6.5M for a innings eater is not a bad deal in today's game. Also keeping him would allow us to trade a young starter for a hitter. He had the surgery in June last year so he should be ready by Spring and we seem to be thinking that pitchers coming off TJ are going to bounce back. I'm not advocating this, just throwing it out there since I haven't heard any mention of us possibly keeping him.

[nsacpi]

Baseball being what it is, you can do everything right and still fall short. Evaluating and projecting young talent is both an inexact science and a frustrating art, and the modal outcome of these decisions is usually failure. We all loved the Toussaint trade, for example, but by far the likeliest outcome there is that the Diamondbacks "win" the trade, at least in terms of value contributed at the big league level- Toussaint probably will never reach the big leagues, not because there's anything wrong with him, but simply because that's overwhelmingly the best bet for a sub-20-year-old pitcher in Low-A.

That the farm system is dramatically improved is undeniable. What that improvement actually means is yet to be seen. I remain deeply skeptical of the pitching uber alles strategy, insofar as the changing nature of the game means pitching exists in abundance and hitting is a scarce resource. As a result, we're essentially hoping that, at some indeterminate point down the road, we can trade the thing there's plenty of for the thing there's little of, which...it's possible, certainly, but as a general rule that's a tough bet.

Still, between Albies, Davidson, Yepez, Acuna and Riley there are some intriguing bats at the very lowest levels of the system, so things aren't completely barren there.

I think there is a distinction to be made between improving the depth of the minor league system and acquiring top flight prospects. Improving minor league depth can help the major league team because some marginal prospects (Prado is a prime example) can develop unexpectedly. But if you really want to have an effect on the major league team, the emphasis should be on top prospects. Looking at BA's list of top 100 prospects at the start of this season I see only Wisler (34) and Touki (71) among the guys we picked up. Maybe some of the other guys like Mallex Smith and Jace Peterson will turn out to be Prado-like in their development arc. Certainly they have surprised to the upside so far. Maybe injured guys like Fried will turn out to be shrewd acquisitions. Of course, we also picked up an established major leaguer in Shelby Miller who has turned out better than expected. But I think so far, it remains to be seen if any of the minor league depth we have gotten in the trades Hart turns out to be more than organizational filler or marginal major leaguers.

[sturg33]

9 pitchers? Miler, Wood, Julio, Wisler, Manny, Folty, Jenkins. That's 7. They could be counting Sims and Hursh in there which would be 9. Although Hursh is destined for the pen.

But that got me wondering if they plan on keeping Arroyo. His buyout is 4.5M and his option is 11M. So you have to look at it as we're paying him 6.5M if we keep him. 6.5M for a innings eater is not a bad deal in today's game. Also keeping him would allow us to trade a young starter for a hitter. He had the surgery in June last year so he should be ready by Spring and we seem to be thinking that pitchers coming off TJ are going to bounce back. I'm not advocating this, just throwing it out there since I haven't heard any mention of us possibly keeping him.

There's also Williams Perez. And Mike Minor.

I'm with you on Arroyo, I don't think it'd be the worst thing to bring him back. But I'd prefer Minor to him, if we had to choose

[Chico]

There's also Williams Perez. And Mike Minor.

I'm with you on Arroyo, I don't think it'd be the worst thing to bring him back. But I'd prefer Minor to him, if we had to choose

Forgot about Perez! And they could be counting Mike Minor as well.

[nsacpi]

I found this paragraph especially the very last part interesting. I've long believed that a team like the Braves should devote a lot of resources on developing a rich pipeline of homegrown pitchers so they do NOT have to risk handing out big risky multi-year contracts to free agent aces like David Price.

Some teams, notably the Chicago Cubs, prioritize young position players over young pitchers, reasoning that position players are more predictable for the long term. The Braves do not dispute that, but they have not drafted as high as the Cubs recently and are far less likely to bid on high-end pitchers in free agency.

[Hawk]

I read that as an inference by Kepner contrasting the Cubs' deep coffers with the seemingly tighter purse-strings controlled by Liberty.

[Julio3000]

That seems like an inference by Kepner contrasting the Cubs' deep coffers with the seemingly lighter purse-strings controlled by Liberty.

e.g. Jon Lester.

[smootness]

I think there is a distinction to be made between improving the depth of the minor league system and acquiring top flight prospects. Improving minor league depth can help the major league team because some marginal prospects (Prado is a prime example) can develop unexpectedly. But if you really want to have an effect on the major league team, the emphasis should be on top prospects. Looking at BA's list of top 100 prospects at the start of this season I see only Wisler (34) and Touki (71) among the guys we picked up. Maybe some of the other guys like Mallex Smith and Jace Peterson will turn out to be Prado-like in their development arc. Certainly they have surprised to the upside so far. Maybe injured guys like Fried will turn out to be shrewd acquisitions. Of course, we also picked up an established major leaguer in Shelby Miller who has turned out better than expected. But I think so far, it remains to be seen if any of the minor league depth we have gotten in the trades Hart turns out to be more than organizational filler or marginal major leaguers.

Sure, it remains to be seen, but I think you're confusing 'minor league depth' with 'a bunch of middling prospects'. It can mean that, but it doesn't in regard to the Braves. They will have something like 5-6 top 100 guys on most lists before next year, and some will probably have more.

And part of the reason we don't have even more is because a lot of our best talent, a big part of that 'depth,' is really young and far away. That makes them less likely to eventually hit, but it doesn't mean their talent level lends itself to a bunch of bench guys.

In terms of only guys we picked up, Wisler and Touki, as you said, are already top 100 (Wisler won't be next year as he's graduated); Folty was, but he graduated with Houston last year; Fried was before his injury and will be again once he proves he's healthy and back; Ruiz was one decent year away from being one and has the talent to get there with a good year next year; Mallex will probably be on more than one top 100 list before next year; Dustin Peterson has high upside and could find himself on the list at some point over the next couple of years; and Jenkins could find himself on somebody's if he continues his current work in AAA.

We didn't go out and get any no-doubt, top 15 guys. But we were never going to get that for one year of Heyward or Upton. We weren't getting that for Gattis, and we weren't getting it for Kimbrel while also unloading BJ's contract. What we did get are several past and present top 100 guys and ultimately two pitchers (Fried and Touki) that I think could be at that elite level within 2-3 years.

Our overall minor league depth is very, very talented. We're full of high-upside guys. But our best talent (Albies, Davidson, Touki, Allard, Yepez, etc.) is all very young, and at least 2-3 years away.

[nsacpi]

Sure, it remains to be seen, but I think you're confusing 'minor league depth' with 'a bunch of middling prospects'. It can mean that, but it doesn't in regard to the Braves. They will have something like 5-6 top 100 guys on most lists before next year, and some will probably have more.

5-6 Top 100 guys on the next round of lists? Let me see

Peraza (holdover from the ancien regime)

Albies (holdover from the ancien regime)

Those are the only two who I think are shoe-ins. Both made BA's mid-season Top 50.

Who else has a shot?

Toussaint: he was on BA's list at the start of this season. My guess he will not be on their next list. We'll see. Didn't make BA's mid-season Top 50.

Davidson: holdover from the ancien regime. I don't think he will be on BA's next list.

Some of the draftees will get consideration: Allard, Soroka, Riley. My guess is none make it. Riley could be interpreted as a trade acquisition since I believe we acquired that pick.

Smith is the best of the remaining trade acquisitions still eligible for the top prospect lists. Don't think he will make it, but he has an outside shot.

Some of our international guys in the GCL are very promising but prospects that far away usually don't make the Top 100 lists. At any rate the best of that group (Yepez, Acuna, Salazar, Mejia) were signed by the ancien regime.

Am I overlooking anyone?

[nsacpi]

Folty was, but he graduated with Houston last year; Fried was before his injury and will be again once he proves he's healthy and back

Folty only pitched 18 innings in 2014, so I believe he was rookie eligible and therefore a candidate for BA's 2015 list. As for Fried, BA has been willing to put guys out with TJ surgery on their Top 100 lists. As of the time we acquired him, he was not on BA's list.

[Horsehide Harry]

I found this paragraph especially the very last part interesting. I've long believed that a team like the Braves should devote a lot of resources on developing a rich pipeline of homegrown pitchers so they do NOT have to risk handing out big risky multi-year contracts to free agent aces like David Price.

Some teams, notably the Chicago Cubs, prioritize young position players over young pitchers, reasoning that position players are more predictable for the long term. The Braves do not dispute that, but they have not drafted as high as the Cubs recently and are far less likely to bid on high-end pitchers in free agency.

"We are not going to trade kimbrel."
"We are not going to sign a top FA pitcher."

Maybe they won't. But, I sure hope they don't spend $40-$50M on a bunch of scrub bats just so they can say they filled the holes.

[Horsehide Harry]

e.g. Jon Lester.

Hart: Right pitcher, wrong time - Winter 2014.

[smootness]

When I talked about the potential number of top 100 guys, I was just talking about the system as a whole. Obviously most of those guys were already around, but I think Peraza, Albies, and Davidson will be on pretty much every top 100 list. Baseball Prospectus listed Davidson in the 'just missed' section of their midseason top 50 list. Mallex will probably make more than one list, Touki will probably still make somebody's, Allard could, Jenkins could. I probably overstated when I said 'most' but Law said we had one top 50 guy but possibly 4-6 more in the 50-100 range.

But everything else I said is correct. I don't know for sure that Folty graduated, but he was still solidly in MLB.com's list before this season and I see no reason why BA would have dropped him. Either way, he was a year removed from being consensus top-60 and was still on at least one top 100 list.

Fried was consensus top 50-60 for 2 straight years before he got hurt, so it was obviously the injury that dropped him out. The injury is the only reason we were able to include him in that deal; he has to be considered a top-100 guy as an asset.

My only point was that we didn't just get organizational filler in these deals. You make it seem like we just got more Terdoslavich's and La Stella's. That's not at all true.

[yeezus]

5-6 Top 100 guys on the next round of lists? Let me see

Peraza (holdover from the ancien regime)

Albies (holdover from the ancien regime)

Those are the only two who I think are shoe-ins. Both made BA's mid-season Top 50.

Who else has a shot?

Toussaint: he was on BA's list at the start of this season. My guess he will not be on their next list. We'll see. Didn't make BA's mid-season Top 50.

Davidson: holdover from the ancien regime. I don't think he will be on BA's next list.

Some of the draftees will get consideration: Allard, Soroka, Riley. My guess is none make it. Riley could be interpreted as a trade acquisition since I believe we acquired that pick.

Smith is the best of the remaining trade acquisitions still eligible for the top prospect lists. Don't think he will make it, but he has an outside shot.

Some of our international guys in the GCL are very promising but prospects that far away usually don't make the Top 100 lists. At any rate the best of that group (Yepez, Acuna, Salazar, Mejia) were signed by the ancien regime.

Am I overlooking anyone?

Fried was on some top-100s in the offseason, right?

[smootness]

"We are not going to trade kimbrel."
"We are not going to sign a top FA pitcher."

Maybe they won't. But, I sure hope they don't spend $40-$50M on a bunch of scrub bats just so they can say they filled the holes.

My guess is that we would work out a trade for someone(s) already under contract for a good bit before we would shell out for a FA nearing or already at 30.

[nsacpi]

I think we will have 2 or 3 on most lists