Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

[zbhargrove]

Who? Can you show me someone who projects better than .280 with 20 HR?

Badler thinks quite a bit more about him... and you know, he specializes in the international market.

[smootness]

Doesn't improve it at all for us. Eat the Arroyo money and make the Dosgers include better prospects.

This notion that we will suddenly go and out bid teams for Heyward, Upton or Price is a pure pipe dream and realistically highly unlikely. You can't do business that way. Eat the money, get better long term pieces.

Yep.

If we love the idea of taking on some money to get talent, we can't pretend to also love getting less in return to save a little money.

[gilesfan]

My issue with the deal is Olivera could put up a 1.000 OPS next year and it still not be worth a top of the rotation starter and a top 50 prospect because of future decline and injury concerns. For this deal to make any sense, he has to put up multiple 4 win seasons. If he does that great; the Johns gambled and won. If he doesn't (which is the more likely of the two scenarios), the Johns are left holding their dicks.

[JohnAdcox]

Here's my prediction on Olivera:

The Braves say he should be ready to come off the DL and start for the major league club in a couple weeks. I predict the hamstring injury will continue to be a problem, he'll have setbacks, and we wont see him until September. He'll get a little playing time, collect some hits, then get shut down for a minor injury for the last few weeks because there's no reason to play him hurt in meaningless games.

He'll come to ST next year and just rack up the hits. He'll wow everyone with rockets all over the field. However, late in ST he'll suffer some sort of injury to something like his wrist that will cause him to start the year on the DL. He'll be on and off the DL all year next year with a procession of minor injuries. He'll show flashes of talent and the Braves will call it a lost year.

His elbow will go the next year and he'll miss all, or nearly all, of 2017 with TJ surgery.

He'll be back in 2018 but his bat will have finally slowed. He'll play in a little over half the games, hit around .240 with 5-6 HRs.

By 2019 the Braves will be looking to trade him and they'll find some team willing to take him as a bench player with the Braves chipping in some extra cash.

I don't find this prediction at all unlikely. In fact, I find an injury marred career full of disappointment and underachievement to be the most likely scenario.

[smootness]

Money from Arroyo should be moved up to 5, IMO. Would be surprised if it's not at least the $4.5m buyout. Also, I'd put Paco either just ahead or just behind Bird.

Regardless, we would basically have to get all of 3-8 to make the drop from 1 to 2 worth it. The fact that we actually gave up 3 also, in addition to a couple other pieces, is insane.

[depley]

I like that we're dumping about 6 million with Arroyo's contract

I think it is closer to 9.5M

[gilesfan]

Badler thinks quite a bit more about him... and you know, he specializes in the international market.

From his mouth:

Olivera ranked as the No. 6 prospect in Cuba before he defected, though that ranking comes with a huge amount of uncertainty. When healthy, Olivera was a dynamic player and a potential big league all-star, though health issues sidetracked him and have prevented teams from seeing him in-person for the last couple of years, which means he has a lot to prove and a lot of teams eager to see him.

[dak]

Yep.

If we love the idea of taking on some money to get talent, we can't pretend to also love getting less in return to save a little money.

I'm kind of stumped by those who seem indifferent about the the $35m that we effectively gained in this trade. That will buy SIGNIFICANT baseball talent for this team in the coming years, whether it's spent on International FAs, buying prospects in salary dumps, or good old-fashioned free agents.

They are not going to set the money on fire or sheepishly hand a stuffed envelope to Liberty execs.

[zbhargrove]

My issue with the deal is Olivera could put up a 1.000 OPS next year and it still not be worth a top of the rotation starter and a top 50 prospect because of future decline and injury concerns. For this deal to make any sense, he has to put up multiple 4 win seasons. If he does that great; the Johns gambled and won. If he doesn't (which is the more likely of the two scenarios), the Johns are left holding their dicks.

While Alex may become a TOR starter... he's only been about a 3 so far.

[zbhargrove]

From his mouth:

Olivera ranked as the No. 6 prospect in Cuba before he defected, though that ranking comes with a huge amount of uncertainty. When healthy, Olivera was a dynamic player and a potential big league all-star, though health issues sidetracked him and have prevented teams from seeing him in-person for the last couple of years, which means he has a lot to prove and a lot of teams eager to see him.

That was also before his showcases and real life evaluation.

[gilesfan]

I'm kind of stumped by those who seem indifferent about the the $35m that we effectively gained in this trade. That will be SIGNIFICANT baseball talent for this team in the coming years, whether it's spent on International FAs, buying prospects in salary dumps, or good old-fashioned free agents.

They are not going to set the money on fire or sheepishly hand a stuffed envelope to Liberty execs.

That fails to assign the monetary value of Wood and Peraza over the next few years. To get production the level of Wood, you aren't getting it for league minimum; its well over 10 million per year.

[sturg33]

I'm kind of stumped by those who seem indifferent about the the $35m that we effectively gained in this trade. That will buy SIGNIFICANT baseball talent for this team in the coming years, whether it's spent on International FAs, buying prospects in salary dumps, or good old-fashioned free agents.

They are not going to set the money on fire or sheepishly hand a stuffed envelope to Liberty execs.

But we didn't gain $35M... It's not like LAD took a bad contract off our hands... they're just giving us a player they had to overpay to sign (via the tax and bonus) for cheaper. That doesn't give us MORE money towards our payroll

[sturg33]

This trade is getting universally panned from where I'm looking...

[smootness]

Badler thinks quite a bit more about him... and you know, he specializes in the international market.

He said he could be an above-average major leaguer, said he would take him over Castillo and Tomas, and that there are health concerns and questions on his defense since he played mostly DH his last year in Cuba.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Doesn't sound like quite a bit more than an upside of .280 and 20 HR. In fact, Badler himself said he doesn't have tons of power.

He also said he could make an immediate impact in 2015, and that clearly hasn't happened.

[thethe]

He said he could be an above-average major leaguer, said he would take him over Castillo and Tomas, and that there are health concerns and questions on his defense since he played mostly DH his last year in Cuba.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Doesn't sound like quite a bit more than an upside of .280 and 20 HR. In fact, Badler himself said he doesn't have tons of power.

He also said he could make an immediate impact in 2015, and that clearly hasn't happened.

I'd take that production with his pricetag. That still gives the Braves flexibility to trade for a high priced bat or maybe even sign Jason this offseason.

[gilesfan]

While Alex may become a TOR starter... he's only been about a 3 so far.

Cmon man. How many "number 3" starters have a significantly below average ERA? Since he's come up, Wood has the 23rd best ERA of any starter. Is Lance Lynn a 3? Jake Shields?

Since Wood has come up:

Wood 8.23 k/9, 2.64 bb/9, 0.66 hr/9, 3.10 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.42 xFIP, 6.4 WAR
Miller 7.50 k/9, 3.18 bb/9, 0.91 hr/9, 3.11 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 5.3 WAR

What is Miller a 3 or a 4?

[smootness]

But we didn't gain $35M... It's not like LAD took a bad contract off our hands... they're just giving us a player they had to overpay to sign (via the tax and bonus) for cheaper. That doesn't give us MORE money towards our payroll

Exactly. We got a player for less than LA paid him and save a fee million on Arroyo.

We didn't save anything on Olivera. We weren't agreeing to pay him anything before this trade.

I mean, holy cow, if we got Olivera and owed him every dollar, this would have been the biggest fleecing of all time.

[smootness]

I'd take that production with his pricetag. That still gives the Braves flexibility to trade for a high priced bat or maybe even sign Jason this offseason.

Yes, but again, that's his absolute upside. There are significant risks.

[Hawk]

I may or may not hate this thread.

[thethe]

Yes, but again, that's his absolute upside. There are significant risks.

Wait a second. That isn't absolute upside but I think a reasonable projection based on reports I've read. Has to stay healthy though.