Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

[thethe]

Again - when you first saw the names of the Braves, you questioned whether we'd be getting both Olivera and Puig.

So clearly, you thought the value of our package was quite high. And you weren't wrong. Hart was

No, that was in a response to a tweet that I saw at the time.

Stop trying to play gotcha. At this point its very frustrating to converse with you about anything Braves which saddens me because I actually really like you.

[Hawk]

Didn't the Braves final bid for Olivera only top out around $40MM? So we basically gave up what we did to end up paying him $6-10MM less than we wanted to this past offseason.

[thethe]

Good lord, thethe. The odds of that pick reaching Peraza status is almost nil.

And thats why I said in most situations not.

[sturg33]

No, that was in a response to a tweet that I saw at the time.

Stop trying to play gotcha. At this point its very frustrating to converse with you about anything Braves which saddens me because I actually really like you.

While it may be frustrating to talk to me, it's impossible to talk to you. You only have one viewpoint, and it's whoever is in the GM's chair's viewpoint

[yeezus]

I'd like to see a graph of age 23 guys throwing not even 90 MPH and see if their velo goes up or down on average, and by how much either way. Guys definitely scale it back when reaching the majors to maintain control; Alex is walking more guys this year while throwing over half a MPH slower and getting lesser results. If this is on purpose, he should stop and try and get closer to 90 again, no?

[thethe]

Didn't the Braves final bid for Olivera only top out around $40MM? So we basically gave up what we did to end up paying him $6-10MM less than we wanted to this past offseason.

I can't look at it that way. They paid what they paid to get a player they wanted.

[gilesfan]

Alex Wood had 2 units of drop in his velcoity from age 22 to 24. Some of that first year was obviously in the bullpen but that would mean his velocity drop is greater than the average no?

I can't find stats on his velocity as a starter vs. as a reliever, but I think every pitcher in baseball throws harder as a reliever. Wood averaged 90.74 mph last year and is at 90.24 this year while intentionally changing his arm angle to get more sink.

[smootness]

But present value as a concept is based on the future.

It really isn't, not on the trade market and certainly not when trading with a team looking to go for it this year.

The Dodgers really needed another good SP. We had one, a very good young pitcher who also just happens to be under control for four more years. We should never allow the Dodgers to give us less because they claim there's a chance Wood falls off in 2 years. He is a very good SP right now and has been for 3 years. Anything else is conjecture.

And once again, if they refuse to do it, then fine. Good luck finding another SP of that quality at that age with that kind of contract on the market. And we'll take our very good 24-year-old SP and continue to have him.

[sturg33]

And what do you think Wood would go for on the open market right now? Peraza? I would be willing to guess the two of them would combine for a whole heck of a lot more than $60 million.

This is a great point... I'd bet their financial value over the next 5 years would be well over $100M

[thethe]

While it may be frustrating to talk to me, it's impossible to talk to you. You only have one viewpoint, and it's whoever is in the GM's chair's viewpoint

I'm not as combative as you are. I believe I am civil in all my discussions. You are just trying to make me look stupid. I do a good enough job on my own thank you very much.

[thethe]

I can't find stats on his velocity as a starter vs. as a reliever, but I think every pitcher in baseball throws harder as a reliever. Wood averaged 90.74 mph last year and is at 90.24 this year while intentionally changing his arm angle to get more sink.

I have the following from fangraphs:

22 - 91.7
23 - 89.9
24 - 89.3

Like I mentioned, I'm not sure how much of that was relief in his age 22 year but that is more of a decline in velocity then the graph you posted would indicate we should expect.

[thethe]

It really isn't, not on the trade market and certainly not when trading with a team looking to go for it this year.

The Dodgers really needed another good SP. We had one, a very good young pitcher who also just happens to be under control for four more years. We should never allow the Dodgers to give us less because they claim there's a chance Wood falls off in 2 years. He is a very good SP right now and has been for 3 years. Anything else is conjecture.

And once again, if they refuse to do it, then fine. Good luck finding another SP of that quality at that age with that kind of contract on the market. And we'll take our very good 24-year-old SP and continue to have him.

Your logic is sound and I can understand where you are coming from but the Braves clearly believe that Olivera is part of the solution moving forward while Wood, who is a very good pitcher, can be replaced internally. Its just a case of the Braves liking Olivera much more than you do. At some point we are going to find out whose evaluation was right.

[gilesfan]

I have the following from fangraphs:

22 - 91.7
23 - 89.9
24 - 89.3

Like I mentioned, I'm not sure how much of that was relief in his age 22 year but that is more of a decline in velocity then the graph you posted would indicate we should expect.

Fangraphs uses inferior technology. They even state that brooks baseball is a better source of pitcher velocity.

Even the decline is greater (I'm not sure it is), wouldn't someone who intentionally gets more movement decrease in velocity? Wooks sinker is dropping 3 inches more than last year. The guy throws a 90 mph sinker as a starter, why would anyone even compare to guys throwing 4 seamers? That's dumb.

[thethe]

Fangraphs uses inferior technology. They even state that brooks baseball is a better source of pitcher velocity.

Oh cool, didn't realize that.

What source do you use?

[yeezus]

Every time I've watched Wood this year he's sat between 89-90 while barely touching 91.

[thethe]

Every time I've watched Wood this year he's sat between 89-90 while barely touching 91.

Yeah, from what I've seen he is usually operating between 88-90.

[gilesfan]

Oh cool, didn't realize that.

What source do you use?

Brooks baseball. This is from fangraphs.

What makes Brooks an even better site than it appears is how they “correct” the PITCHf/x data to augment classifications, discuss grips, and make sure that park effects (some cameras are positioned differently) are properly considered. You’ll sometimes notice that our PITCHf/x data doesn’t line up with theirs; that’s because they’ve devised a strategy for fixing “errors” made by the automated PITCHf/x algorithm. Their data, also, is updated immediately following the game, so you can pull up pitch charts in near real time.

[sturg33]

Does anyone doubt we could've gotten Soler for Wood/Peraza? Wouldn't that have been better?

[Hawk]

Does anyone doubt we could've gotten Soler for Wood/Peraza? Wouldn't that have been better?

I don't think the Cubs have any need for MI help.

[smootness]

Olivera is the kind of return I would expect to get for a guy like Wood if in the last year of his deal.

Why? Because in addition to the valuation for each player, you also have to look at team needs. The Dodgers have 0 need for Olivera now or in the future and were on the hook for his contract. To them, the only possible value he has is in what he would bring back in a trade. That actually does diminish his value on the market, and it should diminish his value more than any perceived possibility of an injury to Wood in the future.

The Dodgers do have a striking need for another good SP, even if just for the rest of this year. Unloading a piece that they have to pay but will provide little value to them seems like a fair price to pay for a rental SP for a stretch run.

It does not in any way seem like a fair price for a good 24-year-old SP with 4 years left on a rookie deal and a top-30 prospect ready to hit the majors with 6 years left on a rookie deal.

From our standpoint, in the middle of a rebuild, we got a 30-year-old 3B/2B with a good bat and questionable defense with significant injury concerns who has never seen major league pitching and gave up a 24 year old who pitched extremely well for us for 3 years and had 4 years left on a deal plus a very good prospect with little power or walks but very good defense, speed, and a good hit tool.

From their standpoint, they got a good #2 starter for the stretch run and a guy they'll still have as either a pitcher or an asset for 4 more years and a very good SS prospect with little power or walks but very good defense, speed, and a good hit tool. And they gave up a player who has yet to play in the majors and is probably blocked.

How anyone can say this deal is anywhere near good from our standpoint, especially compared to theirs, is beyond me.