How do the Braves find bats for 2017 and beyond?

[sturg33]

thought u had me on ignore?

Nope... you're still too entertaining

[bravesnumberone]

You guys have got to stop being delusional. If Hart says 2017, that's what he means. He's not getting an ace unless he wants to win in 2016 and is willing to acquire the necessary offense to help.

Either accept that or stop trying to rationalize and talk yourself into agreeing with this.

[dak]

With $30m to $40m to spend and an over abundance of young MLB-ready SPs, I think we will add at least one and likely two more solid MLB position players (2-3 WAR) to the roster this offseason. IMO, at least one of these three 1-2 WAR players that are penciled in to the 2016 lineup will be replaced by an upgrade: Peterson, Maybin, Bethancourt.

[Heyward]

You guys have got to stop being delusional. If Hart says 2017, that's what he means. He's not getting an ace unless he wants to win in 2016 and is willing to acquire the necessary offense to help.

Either accept that or stop trying to rationalize and talk yourself into agreeing with this.

Thing is the market.

The best SP in FA in 2017 is Strasburg.

Blah.

Hitting wise, not much which is why some want to get someone now even though it wont happen, most of the top FA's in 17 have team friendly options that will get picked up.

There are some good closers if they want to use some cheddar on one. Holland, Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, and Storen are all FA's.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/0...ee-agents.html

[Horsehide Harry]

So far, I see one reply that actually addresses the question. One. And that was to throw out three FA names for 2017 which is certainly a legit way to bring in some bats.

However, of those three, Batista will be 36 and will command some where in the $14M per year range (this is what he currently gets paid. He is likely to devalue because of age but compensation is likely to increase because of market factors, so let's call it $14M). The idea is to have a competitive team in 2017 and beyond. I don't see how he fits.

Gomez will be 31 and he's certainly at a position of need which is OF. He's is reported to be a difficult teammate and player to manage. But, let's put that aside. He is essentially going to be one of the best FA bats available which means he's going to be paid a lot in terms of total and years, all for what will likely be the downside of his career. The Braves aren't doing it now for Heyward, Upton and/or Cespedes. Why would they do it for Gomez, a player arguably not as good?

Lucroy. Ah, the flavor of the day. He also will be 31. He is also a catcher. The same age concerns that you have for the above players are here for Lucroy only magnified because he's a catcher. Well, he can also play 1B you say? So, that has little value for the Braves because they are paying Freeman. Lucroy has to catch for the Braves to have value. Will he have the expected value in his 31-35 years? The Braves didn't think McCann would and let him walk and so far have been proven right. I can't see Lucroy being different.

[NinersSBChamps]

Age doesn't really mean anything. One of our top hitters was a near 40 year old catcher this season.

[nsacpi]

OK. I'll bite. This is not the approach I would take, but one way to accelerate the rebuild is to trade from the very promising group of players in the minor league system who are currently 17-18. I'm talking about Albies, Soroka, Allard, Yepez, Acuna, Herbert, Riley, Mejia, Salazar, Ventura, Keller, Suarez, Guardado, Hellinger.

Not all will pan out. And even a year from now some will have lost their shine. But others may see an increase in their value. There is always a group of teams that are rebuilding. So trade with that group next off-season. Take what they have for some of these very young prospects. And if necessary use those major league players to get what the major league team needs in terms of upgrades at specific positions.

As I said I wouldn't do that, but it is an option. I would prefer not to give undue weight to 2017 and accept the fact that our best talent will mature sometime further into the future.

So far, I see one reply that actually addresses the question. One. And that was to throw out three FA names for 2017 which is certainly a legit way to bring in some bats.

However, of those three, Batista will be 36 and will command some where in the $14M per year range (this is what he currently gets paid. He is likely to devalue because of age but compensation is likely to increase because of market factors, so let's call it $14M). The idea is to have a competitive team in 2017 and beyond. I don't see how he fits.

Gomez will be 31 and he's certainly at a position of need which is OF. He's is reported to be a difficult teammate and player to manage. But, let's put that aside. He is essentially going to be one of the best FA bats available which means he's going to be paid a lot in terms of total and years, all for what will likely be the downside of his career. The Braves aren't doing it now for Heyward, Upton and/or Cespedes. Why would they do it for Gomez, a player arguably not as good?

Lucroy. Ah, the flavor of the day. He also will be 31. He is also a catcher. The same age concerns that you have for the above players are here for Lucroy only magnified because he's a catcher. Well, he can also play 1B you say? So, that has little value for the Braves because they are paying Freeman. Lucroy has to catch for the Braves to have value. Will he have the expected value in his 31-35 years? The Braves didn't think McCann would and let him walk and so far have been proven right. I can't see Lucroy being different.

[Horsehide Harry]

Miller will not be traded for prospects.

Wood will not be traded for prospects. Oh wait...

Look, the bats have to come from somewhere. Trading third tier pitching prospects for young controllable ML bats is a non-starter. Signing good FA bats who fit the plan also appears to be a non-starter because there aren't any.

That leaves essentially three things:
1. Trade from ML pitching depth for ML bats, a strategy that might work but seems unlikely right now given the climate (if you have ideas, I would certainly like to hear them. It's easy to say no, no, no. But, I don't see you putting yourself out there with any solutions).
2. Trade from ML and ml pitching depth for hitting prospects. This is what the Braves did in acquiring Olivera. Yes, Olivera is 30 but he is still a prospect and hasn't had one AB at the ML level yet. The Braves traded for his potential and control.
3. Trade bad contracts and hope to strike it rich on a change of scenery candidate. Fortunately, the Braves just rid themselves of the last of the bad contracts.

The thing is, the FA market strength going into the 2016 season is SP. There are a number of pitchers who are better or as good as Miller. Will they cost more? Certainly. Right now. But, consider this. If Miller continues as he is now, what will he be getting paid in 2017? What will be his team control after 2017? How much will it take to keep him around?

[Tapate50]

How would I bring in some bats? Have a good MLB 2B/3B under contract dirt cheap to sell at the deadline next year for a windfall of prospects.

[Horsehide Harry]

OK. I'll bite. This is not the approach I would take, but one way to accelerate the rebuild is to trade from the very promising group of players in the minor league system who are currently 17-18. I'm talking about Albies, Soroka, Allard, Yepez, Acuna, Herbert, Riley, Mejia, Salazar, Ventura, Keller, Suarez, Guardado, Hellinger.

Not all will pan out. And even a year from now some will have lost their shine. But others may see an increase in their value. There is always a group of teams that are rebuilding. So trade with that group next off-season. Take what they have for some of these very young prospects. And if necessary use those major league players to get what the major league team needs in terms of upgrades at specific positions.

As I said I wouldn't do that, but it is an option. I would prefer not to give undue weight to 2017 and accept the fact that our best talent will mature sometime further into the future.

I agree that this is an option. I also agree that it isn't preferred.

I think the idea is to arrive at 2017 with an up and coming team, one that could contend, is exciting and shows great potential. I think they also want this team backed by a strong farm system that has players to supplement as needed in 18, 19, 20 and so forth.

The issue with trading away young talent is that you don't generally know which are going to pan out long term yet. If you trade the obvious slugs, then the trade partner team is likely to see that as well which either kills the deal or devalues the return.

[Horsehide Harry]

How would I bring in some bats? Have a good MLB 2B/3B under contract dirt cheap to sell at the deadline next year for a windfall of prospects.

Fair enough. So, you are willing to trade an good, established ML 2B, 3B player (I assume Olivera) for some unknown handful of minor league prospects in order to hopefully fill multiple long term holes, let's say 3B/2B, OF, C? How is that better than trading a ML starter (Miller) this offseason for the same and backfilling that ML starter from the FA pool?

[Chico]

We make some more trades and be open to taking on some more short term painful contracts. Im sute they have a list of expendables. Mine would be Maybin, Teheran, Bethancourt, Sims, and Sanchez. I think you look for the equivalent of guys like Mallex and Jace for C LF, and 3b along with some high upside arms.

[Horsehide Harry]

What ace wants to pitch for a team that isn't planning on trying to win next year?

Generally a concern. However, contending isn't the only factor. Money over rides all. Ability to be successful personally is a factor. That's one reason I chose Colorado as my target trade team. They have an extremely tough time signing good FA pitchers because of their park. They have to TRADE for them which the Braves should exploit if they can.

I think Hart has to sell FA pitchers on the idea that, yes, the team is currently rebuilding but that the worst is behind us. That moving forward the Braves intend to be very competitive year after year and that there will be a long window to bring in the hardware. You sell them on the building of the dynasty.

Also, you use the fact that you've got the best defensive shortstops in baseball and a good defensive team behind the pitcher.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think you look for the equivalent of guys like Mallex and Jace for C LF, and 3b along with some high upside arms.

I don't understand this. You already have these guys and they don't solve many issues anyway. The team needs power bats, especially RH power bats not more light hitting lead off, #8 hitter types. The system is full of those guys already.

[Chico]

I don't understand this. You already have these guys and they don't solve many issues anyway. The team needs power bats, especially RH power bats not more light hitting lead off, #8 hitter types. The system is full of those guys already.

I meant under the radar prospects the FO thinks may be putting it all together.

[nsacpi]

I meant under the radar prospects the FO thinks may be putting it all together.

We picked up Mallex, Dustin Peterson, Jace Peterson and Ruiz last off-season. I assume these are the types of players you are referring to. I think we have to try somehow to get higher upside players. Not easy to do. But the general idea would be fewer but more high quality hitting prospects. Going for under the radar guys sounds great in principle but in reality the vast majority of those guys don't pan out.

I would add that imo Peraza has a higher upside than any of Mallex, Dustin Peterson, Jace Peterson or Ruiz. So I would have preferred sending those guys (even if it meant sending one of them paired with an additional prospect) to the Dodgers. I would have also been willing to not acquire Bird or the draft pick as part of that trade, if it would have allowed us to hold on to Peraza.

[Horsehide Harry]

If you go the way I pushed out above you could have:

1B: Freeman - $20.5M
2B: Olivera - $6M
3B: McMahon - $0.5M
SS: Simmons - $8M
RF: Markakis - $10.5M
CF: Dahl - $0.5M
LF: TBD -$0.5M (filled by the trade of Teheran)
C: Murphy - $0.5M

$47M

Rotation could be

Price: $27M
Samardzija: $18M (Miller replacement)
Wisler: $2M
Folty: $2M
ManBan/Other: $1M

$50.5M

Add another $20M for the pen and the bench and you have a total of about $117M which is definitely NOT unreasonable to expect the payroll to be in that neighborhood moving into the new stadium.

AND, you keep all/most of your prospects. For instance, you could by that time have 3B depth with Ruiz at AAA and Riley at AA. You could have Albies at AAA (which could ultimately allow you to move Simmons as he gets expensive), Camargo at AA, Maybe Maitan, etc. SP depth could be Fried, Allard, Soroka, etc. which provides a lot of internal options as needed. 1B/Corner OF depth could come from Davidson, Peterson, etc.

Essentially this is what the Braves did to kick start the 90's dynasty with the exception that the Braves then had years of last place finishes where this Braves team isn't going to have that and will have to bring a lot of the talent in through trades as opposed to all internal development (I know those Braves brought in Smoltz but they also picked first or close to first a number of years bringing in the likes of CJ).

[Dalyn]

You guys have got to stop being delusional. If Hart says 2017, that's what he means. He's not getting an ace unless he wants to win in 2016 and is willing to acquire the necessary offense to help.

Either accept that or stop trying to rationalize and talk yourself into agreeing with this.

Pretty much, yeah. The only way such moves will happen next year is if we are in the hunt come the deadline.

[50PoundHead]

Since they need so many they should see about acquiring them wholesale.

Get 'em right here! Link: http://www.slugger.com/baseball-wood...PriceHighToLow

[nsacpi]

Pretty much, yeah. The only way such moves will happen next year is if we are in the hunt come the deadline.

Agreed. The acquisition of Swisher and Bourn makes it less likely that we make a trade for someone like Cargo or Braun to play left. But this thread is about finding bats for 2017 and beyond. We will find such bats, but it looks to me that the process will unfold according to a fairly slow timeline. This upcoming off-season is unlikely to be the time when we acquire the guy who is going to play left in 2017.