8/11/2015 TUESDAY MINORS THREAD .... BBA's Best Tools for 2015

[auyushu]

You know that if the Braves did what you're advocating they'd be slobbering all over it

Oh, I'm fully aware thethe would be taking the opposite viewpoint if the Braves had done what I said. He's going to flipflop to whatever the Braves do regardless of logic. It's just pretty funny to me that the Braves get defended for going pitching early consistently because "that's what they do well" when the truth is we haven't had much success going pitchers early at all in the past 20-25 years.

[thethe]

Oh, I'm fully aware thethe would be taking the opposite viewpoint if the Braves had done what I said. He's going to flipflop to whatever the Braves do regardless of logic. It's just pretty funny to me that the Braves get defended for going pitching early consistently because "that's what they do well" when the truth is we haven't had much success going pitchers early at all in the past 20-25 years.

Where a player is picked has little consequence on the future probability of success. That is the very definition of correlation and not causation.

[auyushu]

Hayes looks good but the Braves got their bats in the international areana. That was the plan clearly.

The bats we got in the international signings really don't profile as potential corner power bats types (though Pache could transform into one as he develops), the are more similar to the speed guys we already have in the pipeline. I'm glad we signed them, but they really didn't address our huge lack of power bats in the system. Riley helped with that, and Hayes would have helped more.

I have zero issues with Soroka as a prospect, but we really need to develop our own bats with our payroll level. It doesn't do us much good to draft impact pitchers in the early rounds and sign speed guys in the international signings if we are going to have to make two for one trades using them to get the bats with pop that we could draft ourselves in the early rounds.

[thethe]

The bats we got in the international signings really don't profile as potential corner power bats types (though Pache could transform into one as he develops), the are more similar to the speed guys we already have in the pipeline. I'm glad we signed them, but they really didn't address our huge lack of power bats in the system. Riley helped with that, and Hayes would have helped more.

I have zero issues with Soroka as a prospect, but we really need to develop our own bats with our payroll level. It doesn't do us much good to draft impact pitchers in the early rounds and sign speed guys in the international signings if we are going to have to make two for one trades using them to get the bats with pop that we could draft ourselves in the early rounds.

Well this kid we supposedly have locked up in Maiten sounds like he would be a top 5 pick in any of the last 5 drafts.

[auyushu]

Where a player is picked has little consequence on the future probability of success. That is the very definition of correlation and not causation.

That's one of the most ridiculous loads of bull I've possibly ever seen. The chance to reach the majors is tremendously higher in the early rounds. I'll link a couple articles on it, but your chances to make the majors from the first round is much that of rounds 2-3, and rounds 2-3 is almost double that of rounds 5-10, and after round 10 it really drops off the map. And when talking about high WAR players, the majority of them come from the first 3 rounds.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-major-leagues

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/5...-major-leagues

[thethe]

That's one of the most ridiculous loads of bull I've possibly ever seen. The chance to reach the majors is tremendously higher in the early rounds. I'll link a couple articles on it, but your chances to make the majors from the first round is much that of rounds 2-3, and rounds 2-3 is almost double that of rounds 5-10, and after round 10 it really drops off the map. And when talking about high WAR players, the majority of them come from the first 3 rounds.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-major-leagues

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/5...-major-leagues

I must have not explained myself well and I quoted the wrong post.

YOur point that the Braves don't have success picking pitchers early has no bearing on their future success picking pitchers early. That point is irrelevant in evaulating them picking pitchers early in the future.

[auyushu]

Well this kid we supposedly have locked up in Maiten sounds like he would be a top 5 pick in any of the last 5 drafts.

Yep, hopefully he winds up signing and being the real deal. But given his age there is no way we'd see him before 2020-2021ish. I'd like to see us having an exciting offense and making it deep into the playoffs before then myself.

[thethe]

Yep, hopefully he winds up signing and being the real deal. But given his age there is no way we'd see him before 2020-2021ish. I'd like to see us having an exciting offense and making it deep into the playoffs before then myself.

Good thing we drafted Riley then.

[auyushu]

I must have not explained myself well and I quoted the wrong post.

YOur point that the Braves don't have success picking pitchers early has no bearing on their future success picking pitchers early. That point is irrelevant in evaulating them picking pitchers early in the future.

Ahh, well I agree with that in general terms, and I think Allard has a high chance to be a stud. But I've seen you and others making comments about how you trust the scouts implicitly and make reference to past results as a reason why. I'm just saying past results don't justify that sort of implicit trust. I'm hopeful however that Hart's comments after the Olivera trade about how hard it is to trade for bats right now is a sign we will be more balanced with our early picks going forward. We've actually had much better success going hitters early anyway, compared to going pitchers. Particularly when it comes to impact players.

[thethe]

Ahh, well I agree with that in general terms, and I think Allard has a high chance to be a stud. But I've seen you and others making comments about how you trust the scouts implicitly and make reference to past results as a reason why. I'm just saying past results don't justify that sort of implicit trust. I'm hopeful however that Hart's comments after the Olivera trade about how hard it is to trade for bats right now is a sign we will be more balanced with our early picks going forward. We've actually had much better success going hitters early anyway, compared to going pitchers. Particularly when it comes to impact players.

I think when you look at the whole picture of all the talent brought into the organization since October you see a lot of hitting prospects at all ceiling levels. It makes sense to acquire more pitcher just due to the sheer atrition levels. You never want to be subject to have to pay pitchers on the FA market. If you choose to thats another story. I'd rather throw 20+ million on a hitter over a pitcher any day of the week when the player is 27+.

[nsacpi]

They yield on HS pitchers is not especially good (compared to the yield for college pitchers, college hitters, HS hitters) at any point of the draft (first round, other early rounds, middle rounds, late rounds). So does that imply you should never draft HS pitchers. I don't this so. What you look for is the part of the draft where the yield for them is least bad (or where they have a comparative advantage to use a term from economics). And that happens to be in the first round.

[auyushu]

I'd rather throw 20+ million on a hitter over a pitcher any day of the week when the player is 27+.

The results over the past 10 years or say actually say otherwise. Most of the major FA hitter signings for players over 27 have turned out fairly badly, while a majority of the major pitching signings have worked out well (minus Sabathia, who we all knew would suck mid contract due to being a huge fatty). As long as a starting pitcher doesn't have shoulder issues they are usually able to stay fairly consistent till they are around 37ish, whereas without performance enhancers hitter tail off drastically after the age of 32ish.

I really can't think of a a major hitter FA that has worked out really well since Holliday (Beltre maybe I guess, but his value is as much defense as bat). Most of the FA batters have been disasters.

And we barely have any true hitting prospects at all levels of the minors. We have Smith in AAA, who is decent. Then we have Albies in A ball who is very good, and Davidson in A ball who is probably a coin flip between being a stud and a bust depending on how his contact skills develop. And we have 4-5 interesting bats in rookie ball. But that's rookie ball, Cody Johnson looked good in rookie ball.

I really like Riley and Albies, but other than that I don't see any bats I would consider even close to sure bets to be solid major league regulars.

[auyushu]

They yield on HS pitchers is not especially good (compared to the yield for college pitchers, college hitters, HS hitters) at any point of the draft (first round, other early rounds, middle rounds, late rounds). So does that imply you should never draft HS pitchers. I don't this so. What you look for is the part of the draft where the yield for them is least bad (or where they have a comparative advantage to use a term from economics). And that happens to be in the first round.

Wouldn't say never of course, but given that:
A. Good hitters have more value than good pitchers in general right now
B. As you say the yield is higher on hitters and college pitchers in the early rounds

Then from an economic and statistical perspective it would make sense to draft and trade bats for pitchers rather than do the opposite. I will say however that the results in the first 20 picks or so (particularly top 15 picks, which is where most of the Aces come from for the most part) of the draft for high school pitchers tend to be much higher than later, so I have less issues with that. It's more the high number of pitcher picks we make in the sandwich rounds and 2nd round that bother me, as that is a sweet spot for grabbing impact bats in most drafts.

[nsacpi]

The results over the past 10 years or say actually say otherwise. Most of the major FA hitter signings for players over 27 have turned out fairly badly, while a majority of the major pitching signings have worked out well (minus Sabathia, who we all knew would suck mid contract due to being a huge fatty). As long as a starting pitcher doesn't have shoulder issues they are usually able to stay fairly consistent till they are around 37ish, whereas without performance enhancers hitter tail off drastically after the age of 32ish.

I really can't think of a a major hitter FA that has worked out really well since Holliday (Beltre maybe I guess, but his value is as much defense as bat). Most of the FA batters have been disasters.

Beltran was a good signing for both the Mets and Cardinals. Teixeira has been mostly good for the Yankees.

[nsacpi]

Wouldn't say never of course, but given that:
A. Good hitters have more value than good pitchers in general right now
B. As you say the yield is higher on hitters and college pitchers in the early rounds

Then from an economic and statistical perspective it would make sense to draft and trade bats for pitchers rather than do the opposite. I will say however that the results in the first 20 picks or so (particularly top 15 picks, which is where most of the Aces come from for the most part) of the draft for high school pitchers tend to be much higher than later, so I have less issues with that. It's more the high number of pitcher picks we make in the sandwich rounds and 2nd round that bother me, as that is a sweet spot for grabbing impact bats in most drafts.

Here is a thread where I looked at the yields from the last 20 Braves drafts.

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3546

[auyushu]

Beltran was a good signing for both the Mets and Cardinals. Teixeira has been mostly good for the Yankees.

Tex has been worth his contract 2 years (4.3 WAR first year and on pace for over 4 WAR this season), terrible 2 years (1 WAR or less), and decent one year where he was overpaid (2.8 WAR). I would consider that a mixed bag, not mostly good. Beltran definitely was worth it for the Mets, he was a bit outside the 10 year window of FA signings I was looking at.

[nsacpi]

Tex has been worth his contract 2 years (4.3 WAR first year and on pace for over 4 WAR this season), terrible 2 years (1 WAR or less), and decent one year where he was overpaid (2.8 WAR). I would consider that a mixed bag, not mostly good. Beltran definitely was worth it for the Mets, he was a bit outside the 10 year window of FA signings I was looking at.

Tex was a little over 5 WAR his first season with the Yankees.

[auyushu]

Tex was a little over 5 WAR his first season with the Yankees.

I'm apparently completely blind and missed his first two seasons on FG somehow. I stand corrected, you are right and he has been mostly good.