Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 27

Thread: FA Starting Pitching Market

  1. #1
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts

    FA Starting Pitching Market

    The glut of starting pitching about to hit the market is going to open up some opportunities for a lot of teams if they are willing to be patient. Maybe even the Braves.

    I'd like for this thread to discuss what kind of pitchers might be worth looking at. Let's try first to do this without naming a particular pitcher. Let's talk about the considerations the Braves (and any team for that matter) might want to use to rank the pitchers. After we've discussed the principles, we can then move on to particular pitchers who will be on the market.

    For me it is about finding the best bang for the buck. So here are some general principles:

    1) Look for someone who might have had an off season in 2015 relative to his baseline of recent years.

    2) Look for someone whose performance might have been hurt by the ballpark/division/league he was playing in. At the same time, try to avoid (or at least take into account) those whose performances might have been helped by playing environment.

    3) Look for a pitcher whose peripherals (walk and strikeout rates) held up better in 2015 than other stats such as ERA or wins. In particular, don't give too much weight to their 2015 HR/flyball ratio.

    4) Avoid pitchers with a significant downward trend in velocity.

    5) Give bonus points to ground ball pitchers on the assumption that our infield defense will continue to be a strength over the next few years.

    6) Also give bonus points for ability to pitch deep into games. I would like someone who has gone 200 or more innings in at least two of the past three years.

    7) A strikeout to walk ratio of at least 2 to 1 in recent years is something I would also look for.

    Thoughts on the above? What else?

  2. #2
    Vencer a Los Doyers GovClintonTyree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Lake Hartwell
    Posts
    4,888
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,841
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,645
    Thanked in
    1,029 Posts
    I do not think this will be a strategy the Braves will employ. They will not be acquiring any significant major league starting pitching.

    I do understand that you think - probably correctly - that we stockpiled pitching at a time where hitters are at a premium. But I don't think we will acquire much (any) more.

    I think we are more likely to acquire a power hitting outfielder and an offensive catcher.

  3. #3
    Where's My Cup of Coffee?
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,147
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    196
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    338
    Thanked in
    261 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Thoughts on the above? What else?
    Not sure I would definitely look for #1, but I agree with all the rest.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to auyushu For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (08-17-2015)

  5. #4
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    4,626
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    199
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,328
    Thanked in
    853 Posts
    These are all great things to look for in a pitcher. Unfortunately I think this ship might have already sailed in MLB. Big spenders like the Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers are all going to be willing to pay for players that might have outperformed their traditional numbers. Having these kind of minds with the budgets they are given seems fairly frightening to those of us cheering for other teams.

  6. #5
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    4,760
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    981
    Thanked in
    766 Posts
    I don't know. We acquired a bunch of pitching but there are rumors of us moving Tehran.

    this staff believes in vet leadership, so Im not sure we'll have a rotation with a bunch of guys under 25.

    If we have a protected pick you'd think we could go for a big fish, but maybe the years scare us away.....7 years would scare me.

    I think we'll target one or two next tier guys. Like the Fister level of guy. Maybe we can over pay a little to keep the contact length down. And I hope we don't trade Tehran unless we get a stud position player w/o having to throw in anything else.

  7. #6
    It's OVER 5,000! yeezus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,108
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,501
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,720
    Thanked in
    1,122 Posts
    i'm not sure we can survive without 3.88 xFIP ACE Alex Wood.
    May as well mail it in forever.

  8. #7
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Contract length is also important. I'm willing to trade off a higher AAV for shorter contract. Ideally we can get someone on a 2 or 3 year deal plus an option year. The option year is important with pitchers because it gives the club a chance for some upside if the pitcher stays healthy and effective.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    50PoundHead (08-17-2015)

  10. #8
    Fredi Gonzalez Supporter Dalyn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your mom
    Posts
    14,077
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    6,446
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,802
    Thanked in
    3,408 Posts
    I think the answer is to buy low on someone like Verlander. But, if we are only talking FA, I would go after Leake, Latos, and/or Lincecum for the rotation. Beachy, Feliz, Hunter, and/or Eric O' for the bullpen.

  11. #9
    Hessmania Forever
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    13,995
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,888
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    7,678
    Thanked in
    4,941 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Contract length is also important. I'm willing to trade off a higher AAV for shorter contract. Ideally we can get someone on a 2 or 3 year deal plus an option year. The option year is important with pitchers because it gives the club a chance for some upside if the pitcher stays healthy and effective.
    The key.

  12. #10
    NL Rookie of the Year dak's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    2,604
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    204
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,252
    Thanked in
    696 Posts
    I would add that you can sometimes find value in pitchers with injury concerns. The Braves are of course playing this card with younger prospects that have had TJ. Shoulder injuries scare the hell out of me, but injuries to legs / core / elbow seem to greatly effect the market for pitchers . . . perhaps too much. The biggest impact is on length of deal, so being smart about injury evaluation can be a good way to sign a quality pitcher to a short term deal. The Braves were very close to pulling this off last year with Brett Anderson.

  13. #11
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Although it was done out of desperation, I like what we did with the Harang and Santana signings. We gave up a draft pick with Santana but gained it back (and turned it into Soroka) when we made the qualifying offer.

  14. #12
    Mr. Free Trade
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    3,139
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    470
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    834
    Thanked in
    514 Posts
    Braves could also go once again with the idea of trade for a veteran from another team that has a bad contract and bring back more players in return.

    An example might be:

    Matt Cain from SF who's owed $20M in 16 and 17 and has a $21M option ($7.5M buyout) for 2018.

    Maybe something LIKE: Cain plus $15M plus 1B Christopher Shaw & C Aramis Garcia

    OR

    Maybe a Matt Garza plus Gilbert Lara and Clint Coulter coming from the Brewers.

    The basic idea would be to use financial flexibility to add talent and take a chance on a rebound player.

    AND, I would still like to see a real ACE like Price brought in.
    Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 08-17-2015 at 10:16 AM.

  15. #13
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    The Braves could also target a guy that is just barely good enough to warrant his QO. While bonafide superstars aren't hurt much by a QO, the marginal players tend to be hurt much more by having a QO attached to them, like Santana did. Assuming the Braves have a protected pick (pretty safe assumption), they can wait for this year's Santana to fall to them at the end of the offseason.

    They shouldn't target anyone. If a deal falls in their laps at the end of the offseason they should jump. If one doesn't, then stick with the young guys.

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    NYCBrave (08-18-2015)

  17. #14
    NL Rookie of the Year
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,469
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    431
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    577
    Thanked in
    376 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Braves could also go once again with the idea of trade for a veteran from another team that has a bad contract and bring back more players in return.

    An example might be:

    Matt Cain from SF who's owed $20M in 16 and 17 and has a $21M option ($7.5M buyout) for 2018.

    Maybe something LIKE: Cain plus $15M plus 1B Christopher Shaw & C Aramis Garcia

    OR

    Maybe a Matt Garza plus Gilbert Lara and Clint Coulter coming from the Brewers.

    The basic idea would be to use financial flexibility to add talent and take a chance on a rebound player.

    AND, I would still like to see a real ACE like Price brought in.
    This is the route I think we end up going. I hadn't thought about Cain, but I know MIL is trying to get rid of Garza.

  18. #15
    It's OVER 5,000! UNCBlue012's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    North Carolina
    Posts
    23,426
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,919
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,636
    Thanked in
    1,990 Posts
    I think the Braves will bring in an ACE and a MOR type of guy. I could be wrong, but I see lots of moves being made.

  19. The Following User Says Thank You to UNCBlue012 For This Useful Post:

    Hawk (08-17-2015)

  20. #16
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    4,626
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    199
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,328
    Thanked in
    853 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Braves could also go once again with the idea of trade for a veteran from another team that has a bad contract and bring back more players in return.

    An example might be:

    Matt Cain from SF who's owed $20M in 16 and 17 and has a $21M option ($7.5M buyout) for 2018.

    Maybe something LIKE: Cain plus $15M plus 1B Christopher Shaw & C Aramis Garcia

    OR

    Maybe a Matt Garza plus Gilbert Lara and Clint Coulter coming from the Brewers.

    The basic idea would be to use financial flexibility to add talent and take a chance on a rebound player.

    AND, I would still like to see a real ACE like Price brought in.
    Lara is likely completely untouchable.

  21. #17
    Voted Worst Poster
    '13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner)
    Heyward's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    22,572
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,251
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,257
    Thanked in
    1,831 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    I think the Braves will bring in an ACE and a MOR type of guy. I could be wrong, but I see lots of moves being made.
    I can see a MOR, i dont see us getting an ace or why an ace would sign with us.

  22. #18
    Vencer a Los Doyers GovClintonTyree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Lake Hartwell
    Posts
    4,888
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,841
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,645
    Thanked in
    1,029 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Braves could also go once again with the idea of trade for a veteran from another team that has a bad contract and bring back more players in return.

    An example might be:

    Matt Cain from SF who's owed $20M in 16 and 17 and has a $21M option ($7.5M buyout) for 2018.

    Maybe something LIKE: Cain plus $15M plus 1B Christopher Shaw & C Aramis Garcia

    OR

    Maybe a Matt Garza plus Gilbert Lara and Clint Coulter coming from the Brewers.

    The basic idea would be to use financial flexibility to add talent and take a chance on a rebound player.

    AND, I would still like to see a real ACE like Price brought in.
    Keep Garza the **** off my mound. Garza is Cahill's Hispanic twin brother.
    Last edited by GovClintonTyree; 08-17-2015 at 11:58 PM.

  23. #19
    Vencer a Los Doyers GovClintonTyree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Lake Hartwell
    Posts
    4,888
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,841
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,645
    Thanked in
    1,029 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    I think the Braves will bring in an ACE and a MOR type of guy. I could be wrong, but I see lots of moves being made.
    After acquiring over twenty pitchers in the last nine months, why do you think this? What am I missing?

    Isn't the next two years about the pitchers sorting themselves out?

    We have a bunch of salary dump hitters and otherwise expiring contracts. Aren't we going to trade from pitching and acquire hitting? Isn't hitting our clear shortage?

    I'm stupefied that so many smart people think we're going to go after pitching. With C, 3B and OF in the state they're in, aren't we far more likely to spend there, even if we overspend? (And if pitching is so plentiful, are we really overpaying, or just paying market value?)

    I don't see free agent pitching - ace or anything else - being a target of our front office. They've said as much - I don't think Coppolella could have been any clearer about the inefficiency of acquiring free agent pitching.

    So, again - why do we think we're going to go against everything our leadership has said publicly, about efficiency and Olivera being the first building block, and go get pitching?

  24. #20
    Vencer a Los Doyers GovClintonTyree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Lake Hartwell
    Posts
    4,888
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,841
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,645
    Thanked in
    1,029 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    They shouldn't target anyone. If a deal falls in their laps at the end of the offseason they should jump. If one doesn't, then stick with the young guys.
    I could see an accidental acquisition.

Similar Threads

  1. Starting Pitching
    By nsacpi in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 80
    Last Post: 09-27-2019, 10:54 AM
  2. Starting pitching
    By bravesguy in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 04-19-2017, 04:00 PM
  3. premium value of 2nd and 3rd tier pitching prospects on the trade market?
    By lenny79 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 08-19-2016, 11:14 AM
  4. How Much Starting Pitching Do We Have?
    By nsacpi in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 08-24-2015, 06:00 PM
  5. The State of Play in the Starting Pitcher Market
    By nsacpi in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 49
    Last Post: 12-18-2014, 05:04 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •