Or alternatively, how much starting pitching will we need to go outside the organization to acquire.
I'm focusing here on 2016 and 2017, which means looking at the organization's starting pitching in High A, AA, AAA and the majors.
We start with a couple fairly established guys in Miller and Teheran. We have Minor coming back from shoulder surgery and under club contractual control for two more years if we want to exercise the option.
Then there is a long list of possibilities at various levels above low A: Wisler, Banuelos, Perez, Folty, Jenkins, Gant, Janas, Sims, Bird, Thurman, Whalen, Povse.
It is a fairly long list. But how many would you expect to develop into acceptable members of a major league rotation, in particular the rotation of a team that wants to market itself as a contender in 2017.
Is your expected number five? More than five? Less than five?
My answer taking into account risks of injury and regression is that we'll most likely have four acceptable starters from this group for 2017.
Depending on your answer, there arises the question of whether we should look to acquire a proven starter this off-season. The answer is not straightforward even if you are not optimistic we can find five starters from the internal candidates. If we are not planning on being competitive in 2016, we can be patient and see how the internal candidates develop. Having so many possible starters argues for giving as many of them a chance as possible. Arguing in the other direction is the likelihood we will have a buyers' market for starting pitching this off-season.
I lean toward the view we should pick up a starter this off-season given that the price is likely to be reasonable. It will important to control the financial risk of doing so and the main way of accomplishing this is to hold down the length of the contract. With a buyers' market we should be able to accomplish this.
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